Oct 07-11 - FKLI, Dow, FCPO, GOLD (Closing week2)

Hi All.

A quick one for this week's market summary.

A few days back, did up a quick analysis on DOW (as of Oct09 close), on how the US market fared under the current political gridlock on Debt Ceiling, & the on-going Government Shutdown.

Looks like Dow is threatening to weaken further as it breached through the mid-channel line of the long-term channel supporting its Sub-prime recovery rally.

I expected a quick test on 14,900-15,00 level, & it totally shot past this level with the massve 300+pts rally on Thursday (Oct10), & another 100+pts on Friday (Oct11), before US markets close for a -day weekend. Monday (Oct14) is Columbus Day.

Watch the long-term channel on DOW (Weekly@Oct 09, 2013)

>>>

Compared to the massive plunge of near 1000pts on DOW on the shutdown & debt ceiling fear, FKLI only totaled about 40pts in its recent correctional move.

I'm tired of the lack of movement, basically nothing much to update on the technical outlook.

I'm keeping to my bearish bias, as long as FKLI stays below 1,800 mark, or below the line that connects all the recent peaks above 1,800 level, since May06.

Also, as long as there's no debt deal in US, the volatility will continue on the Dow, & should to a certain extent affects out FKLI, too, albeit most likely to a smaller scale of volatility.

FKLI - Price+Technical+Macroeconomics (Oct 11, 2013)

>>>

CPO did a massive bounce, following my post/alert that it has been able to stand above 2,300 level throughout the Sept30-Oct04 trading week.

My immediate upside target was 2,390-2,400.

CPO hit 2,395 high on Friday & closed the week on a slightly weaker note at 2,380.

In the coming week, expect pullback for the nice bounce from 2,264 low to 2,395 high made this week.

Watch the now turned-support 2,330-2,340 band....

If it holds, we will have a chance to re-challenging the 2,400 mark.

If the test fails, brace for another visit to the lower channel (the 1-year sideways channel) region, & yet another potential test on the crucial 2,200 level, agaiinnn~~.

Let's hope the 2,330-2,340 support level holds then, then we might just have the slightest chance to move out of the 1-year massive sideways channel that's making each & every CPO trader trumping on their feet thus far.

If you are not one of us that's swearing & waning on the CPO market over the past year, i give u a thumb's up here!!  lolxxx~~~~~~~

FCPO - watch 2,330-2,340 level as pullback starts... (Oct 11, 2013)

 

 >>>

I'm too tied up with other stuff, no time for GOLD.

This is GOLD as of Oct04 close, last week. I was highlighting the crucial 1,280-1,300 support band.

That has been broken on Friday, due to a massive sell order done @8:42-8:43am US Eastern Time.

Ermm...brief trading halt, & the fact that the breach happened over a 1-minute window, on the chart, a breach is a breach.

Immediate support comes in at 1,260 region, which proves holding as of Friday's close.

We might get a bounce back to retest the 1,280-1,300 now turned-resistance level, just to prove that it's genuinely breached....Yup, that's how market works, really!!....lolx~...^_^''

GOLD - As of Oct11 close, breached 1,280-1,300 support. (chart as of Oct04 close)

>>>

 

Of coz, the on-going Debt Ceiling Saga will have its impact on GOLD too.

I'm thinking we might have a brief relief rally if the ceiling is raised, or a deal is reached...

But, essentially, market will realize its not exactly a good thing to do, keep on raising the overhead ceiling & accommodate more & more debt >> I believe Moody's / Standard & Poor will agree with me, too.

I reckon US treasury yield may continue to rise on a debt ceiling raise...given that now investors are getting more & more doubtful of Uncle Sam's pocket size....which seems to be bottomless, or izzit??...hehehe... :p :p

>>>

For the weekend viewing pleasure, I found a detailed, yet simple, explanatory video clip on "How the Economic Machine Works"...

Narrator explains while simple illustrations to represent the complex economic chains are used to give a basic understanding on the topic.

Fantastic work! Wish I watched this 2-3years back, when I was dwelling into the 'Economic world', reading boring text to get a grasp on what the ... is Economics...lolx~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

Enjoy the watch!! :)
Happy Hunting in the coming week! Enjoy the weekend! \(^_^)/

Sept 30-Oct 04 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Oct'13 Week1)

Hi All.

Here's some comments for the first week of trading in October month.

=On FKLI=

It's really just been consolidating to the upside throughout the whole boorrrinnnggg week.

Initially, Im expecting an abc triangle correction, then continuing the fall since 1,803 latest peak.

But by Wednesday close, its obvious that the 4th small up-wave is developing. Readjusted my lines & saw a possible Bear Flag/Rising Wedge forming.

Some simple projection suggesting a possible break above the immediate 1,780 resistance shall my Bear Flag theory is right. Based on my analysis, I then planned for averaging a short somewhere around 1,782. 

And, I've gotten in at 1,782 on Friday afternoon. That leaves my average Short positions @ around 1,773-75 region.

I'm expecting the 'real deal' breakout to happen on the coming Monday, or the ensuing week.

I'm in desperate need of a solid confirmation to tell me if I'm right or wrong, as the Oct17 US debt ceiling deadline draws closer & volatility in the US market on a rise recently.

Also, I hope to clear off my Short positions by end-Oct. As Nov & Dec are seasonally bullish months on FKLI, in tandem with the year-end rally.

I've heard many comments against my bearish stance...Some say its an inverted H&S on the hourly, that 1,780 is the neckline & a breakout has occurred by Friday's close...etc.

I love this kinda conflict situation, because its a good training ground for my faith in my setups/analysis, also my trading psychology - ability to follow your plan in spite of thundering & distracting noises around you.

Well, I have my plan, which is based on the bear flag formation I observed. Shall my bear flag turned out to be wrong, I will exit my shorts according to my 'exit plan'. Period.

If there's anything I hope for, it will be a solid confirmation from FKLI in the coming week...Let's hope it doesn't continue consolidating!!~~~

FKLI - My Bear Flag theory hasn't fail me just yet... (Oct 04, 2013)

>>>

=On CPO=

CPO is on a silently-killing downward consolidation movement recently...which has lasted for 2weeks till end-Sept.

Early-Oct saw a slight glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel, as price successfully stand on the 2,300 mark, consecutively, over the last 5 trading days.

However, the Bulls' aren't all committed yet to bring price higher...

As of now, its a mere change from downward consolidation, to a flat range consolidation oscillating around the mid-range 2,300 level.

A quick examine on the daily chart confirms my previous comments on my page update...

And that, A convinced break above the 2,330-2,340 resistance band, also where the daily mid-band currently lies, will be the next mission for early Bulls to convince more fellow Bulls to join in the Long-party.... :-)

Me, myself, will be one of the more-conservative bulls who are waiting to jump into the party pool when price beats the mid-band resistance... ;-) ... hehehe*~*~

Near-term concern for CPO price will still be:

• fluctuating USDMYR fx rate, due to QE Tapering uncertainties
• seasonally lower export demand towards year-end due to cold weather in the Northern hemisphere (CPO solidifies in winter, rendered it unusable).
• Inventory level usually starts to build-up towards year-end, into Mar-Apr of the following year.

Also, the coming Thursday, Oct 10, MPOB Sept'13 data due for release.

FCPO - Still weak unless break above 2,330-2,340 Resistance Band (Oct 04, 2013)

>>>

=On GOLD=

Had a fantastic Short that yields a $225 profit over a day's effort.

That's about all I can shout about for the whole week of trading...din touch much on FKLI, which was in total consolidation mode; CPO, too, not suggesting an obvious direction to trade...

Underlying technical outlook for GOLD hasn't changed much since I last updated on my page.

Overall, its still Bearish, ever since failing the back-test of 1,360-70 resistance post-FOMC spike. 

The uncertainties over the US govt shutdown, looming debt ceiling limit, has probably helped supporting GOLD price above the temporary floor of 1,280-1,300.

All news aside, shall the 1,280-1,300 support band failed in any event, we are looking at a re-challenge of previous major pivot low near 1,180-1,200 region.

Expect volatility to be on a rise though, given GOLD's safe-haven role amid such amount of economic uncertainties.

All in all, trade with eyes wide open!!~~ :p 

GOLD - Still in Bearish Mode: 1,280-1,300 temporary support (Oct 04, 2013)

>>>

If u haven't notice, the US government has been on a partial shutdown for 4days since Oct 01, 2013.

Here's the 6-Must-See Charts on how the shutdown has jolted market fear gauges, focusing on Bond, CDS, the VIX (volatility index) aka Fear Index, Gold & Dollar...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-debt-ceiling-issue-and-markets-in-6-charts-2013-10-04

Live-streaming News Headlines on US Government Shutdown showdown:

http://stream.marketwatch.com/story/the-government-shutdown-live-streaming-news/SS-4-42060/

The political wrestle between Democrats & Republican leaders on the Debt Ceiling:

http://on.wsj.com/170rDZR

& many more...just Google "US government shutdown"....

>>>

On another note, 

I might have mentioned this report somewhere in my older blog posts, but would like to highlight it again for newcomers. Those who have read it, read again, to reaffirm your current level & check back on your progress plan towards the next level! 

Here's the Kirk Report sharing on the "5 Steps to Becoming A Trader".

Enjoy your weekend read! Cheers!! :)

September 26 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD

Hi All. 

It's been a while since I last posted here on the blog.

I've received emails from a few readers who are not readily connected to Facebook, & won't be so in near future (@_@??)...

I've got to say sorry! I can't re-post every update on the FB Page here...As that will defeat my purpose of transferring to an FB Page, which is suppose to support quick updates/comments, especially when I'm on-the-go, & also enable more communications & easier notifications for my new posts.

I strongly suggest getting a Facebook account! FB has an online community so vast, its users, if considered a nation, can ranked 3rd largest on Earth, behind China & India.

So, why not join the community? It's like a free passport to the global village of FB! :)

>>>

That said, here's a quick peep on my latest post on the Page...lolx!

Short comments - After Market Close.

Missed my usual end-week blog post, as I went on a short holiday & took time to go back home for Mid-Autumn Day! ~ ~

No worries, this week it will be back on as usual!

Special Note: 

US Debt Ceiling negotiations is going to continue over the weekend, with a decision to be made to avert US govt shutdown by Monday midnight (US Eastern Time).

I'm planning to square off most of my positions on-hand by midday tomorrow.

Might leave a few FKLI shorts to run, but I shall cover my axx with some light hedge against any unpleasant surprises from Capitol Hill over the weekend.

In the mean time,

Happy Hunting!! ^_^

Post by My.Trading.Space.

Post by My.Trading.Space.

September 09-13 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week2)

Hi All.

It's a 3-day weekend!! ye@h!!!

Most of the 'tumpang' KL-ians are back to their hometown, probably, as my routine movie frenzy yesterday night went all smooth, didn't have to stand in long queue to get a tix like during a usual Friday movie night rush...

Today's brunch with friends also saw pretty empty streets or eat-out spots, light traffic on the road, while the usually all-lines-up DimSum shop in Puchong Jaya also have ready empty tables! 

Loitering around the city on such a long weekend makes the city skyline looks ever more charming! lolx! :D

Next week, it's my turn to go back home for the grand festival of Mid-Autumn 2013!!... :) :D

ye@h!! ~ ~ B@lik k@mpUng!!~ ~

>>>

Back to business...

It's been a pretty busy, yet rewarding trading week for me, on the Trios...

Had been frequently updating the week's positions, be it entry plans, exits executed, or middle-of-trade anxieties!...lol ^_^''

Coming week will on an 'all-eyes-on-FOMC-Meeting' mode as the event takes place over Sept17&18, whereas Mr Ben shall face the press on Sept18@1430hr (US Eastern Time)...

Whatever u are trading on, these dates & time are to be remembered & put on ur reminders/alerts!!

Worldwide, general Economists consensus are that the Fed shall announce some extent of QE Tapering, as a result of the meeting.

Looking from the recently recovering-from-lows major indices worldwide, yes, signs of a counter-rally tops are emerging all over the world...not excluding our dear FKLI, too!!

That pretty much set the scene for further fall on equities markets on the potential tapering.

>>>

On FKLI

As usual, price continue to hang high in the air, although its obvious that the buying volume sucks to the max, marketmakers really love to manipulate retail traders near Tops/Bottoms...

These are part & parcel of the trading game, play smart, & you'll be able to ride along the Big Boys...

Try to be smart?...Congratulations! You just got yourself a place into a Super-Heavy-Weight vs. Ultra-Light-Weight wrestling ring.

Learn to be humble, & ride along with the Big Guys...that's the way it is in Trading! ... :)

I'm still lack of 2 confirmation signals on my Counter-Rally-Top-Identifying Checklist --

(1) Price falls below short-term uptrend line (L1 on chart) supporting rally from 1,653 major pivot low.

(2) MACD histograms 'insist' on closing Green, despite 2days of weakening in price near highs of 1,770-80....It's a lagging indicator, yeah, so, I'm fine with waiting 1day more for it to catch up with price action.

Also, I forgot totally bout projecting the Inverted H&S breakout to gauge the potential upside target for the current rally from 1,653...

I plot it out on the chart below, & what it did is, it correctly identifies +/- 1,780 as the target for Inverted H&S neckline breakout, which took place on Monday (Sept09)...

Again, sometimes, the simpler the TA is, the better/more accurate the results you get!!

Which is why I always like to, or recommend my readers to -- 

Keep it Simple..&..Keep to the Basics!!

FKLI - Inverted H&S Breakout Projection shows 1,780 as potential top... (Sept13, 2013)

>>>

On FCPO

Just did up a post on Sept12 (Thursday), as price hit my downside target of 2,323 & my shorts are covered.

Friday saw a quick test on 2,305 support region in late trading, & a furious rejection & short-covering activities brought price back up shooting to 2,349 high to close the week.

Bullish divergence signal is all over the place, ripe for a Right-Shoulder formation on CPO Daily...

Right, another Inverted H&S, on CPO this time...

I'm expecting price to bounce further up, resistance overhead plotted on chart -- 2,365-2,385 | 2,400-2,420.

Of course, to complete the Right Shoulder, price has to break above 2,420 strong resistance to match previous major pivot highs of 2,485-2,491.

Sad news is, on a longer term view, our CPO is still stuck in its 2,200-2,600 range....It has been travelling to-&-fro between the two levels since February2012, nearly 2years now...

sad.sad.sad stories been told between these two lines......huhu!! :((

Potential tapering talk in the coming week's FOMC Meeting might send USD higher again, thus help support CPO priced in weaker Ringgit...

Pretty much match what the chart is telling us thus far... :D

My earlier post on FB Page when 2,323 target is reached:-

FCPO - Target reached at 2,323...Covered Shorts & Expect Rebound Soon (Midday@Sept12, 2013)

>>>

For the week: -

FCPO - Right Shoulder forming...?? (Sept 13, 2013)

>>>

On GOLD

Part & parcel of a Trader's life, is to deal with the constant challenge of seeing market going against you, while the chart still shows you one of your favorite setups!

That's what happen to me on Thursday night (Sept12), as the jobless claim came out miraculously lower than 300k mark.

My GOLD chart is shouting Buy!Buy!Buy!, price was testing 1,330 level, while I expect the Inverted H&S neckline around 1,310-1,320 region.

So, I took the trade, to Long as my setup present itself in the market...Long @ 1,330 level.

On Friday, price started the day falling further & further towards 1,300 psychological mark.

In the afternoon, I 'fixed' my long position by making it a spread, added a Short@1,319 level.

That technically fixed my paper losses at 10pts, no matter where the market moves to thereafter.

And then, I put a buy limit at 1,321 -- i.e. >> Shall market finally decides to bounce back from its super-oversold condition, my Short will be covered @1,321, leaving me with my initial Long position @1,330 to continue to run....

** Hope this clear the air for those who are interested to know how I 'fixed' my Gold position...Not exactly a 'good' thing to do for a position-on-hand...but, define 'good things' in trading? Mitigating risk & be profitable is still the top priorities!! lolx!

I posted on my FB Page, saying that this is a perfect example of News vs. Price, and that how Price will become the eventual winner, coz to me, or any Technical Traders by practice, Price is King!!

Well oh well, my setups really did not disappoint me!... :D

I came back from my movie to see GOLD nearing its week's close on Sept14 (Saturday) early morning (GOLD trading day close at 4am, to be exact, Msia time), & price has already breached through the 1,320 level!

It later spiked a little more to close the day on a magnificent looking long-tail Dragonfly Doji, closing at 1,326 level!

YesssSSS!!!!!!!!!! \(^o^)/

Again, price discounts all info, proven!!

*Info here being Syria war tak jadi...FOMC potential tapering, jobless claim exceptionally good....etc >> All are GOLD Bearish news/data....

GOLD, also on an Inverted H&S, potentially forming the Right Shoulder too following its late Friday bounce...

I'll take this Long off-the-board before Mr Ben's press conference, on Sept18@1430hr US Eastern time. Don't mess with Tapering..the Big Deal!...lolx! :D

News/potential news aside, I'm actually expecting GOLD price to roar higher, past its previous pivot high of 1,433.50, towards 1,475-1,500 resistance band overhead...which also coincides with the inverted H&S breakout projection target. :)

Hmmm...that seems impossible if the tapering does came on Sept18 Bernanke's FOMC Statement We'll see then...!

GOLD - Forming right shoulder, also?? (Sept 13, 2013)

>>>

Okay!!

That's all for the long weekend!

Enjoy!! & Safe traveling if you'll be on the road back from hometown! :)

P/S >>

Those who are interested to know more about a typical 'working' day for traders, do check out this video series "Millionaire Trader" on Youtube...

A bunch of average UK peeps, aspired to be city traders (that's how they name the traders in London city..hmm..), got some intensive-intensive training & hopped on to the trading bandwagon, under a sponsor of a millionaire hedge fund manager.

Notice though, they operate from a Hedge Fund management perspective...A little different from average retail trader like myself...Hedge funds, as their name would suggest, hedge all their positions on-hand to mitigate the risk of having market going against them, which makes Hedge Funds the most popular, high-returns investment portal among the Western countries... 

Do check it out! --> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6ciY8u04Kk

Have fun!! :) :)

September 02-06 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week1)

Hi All.

One thing nice about having a FB Page is definitely the ability to post real quick updates, right on-the-go, from my iPhone.

On Sept05 (Thursday), spotted a potential Long setup on FKLI, while I was waiting for my number to be called at a local bank branch which have probably the slowest-moving staff on earth...huhu...*_*.....

Using the pens I borrowed from receptionist, & ruler of course, here's what I sketched down on a piece of waster paper. I even manage to post it on my Page before it's my turn at the tellers. WooHoo!!! ......Me being fast & savvy, or they're just too slow??? Haha! ...@_@''...

Here's my proud Sept05 FKLI sketch ---

>>>  Sept 05 - FKLI quick sketch on potential Long setup

And then on Sept06 (Friday), also outside running some errands, CPO finally gave some indication of where it really plan to go, in the late evening trading.

Another simple yet informative post on CPO, though the mobile app (provided by NextView) doesn't have an option for adding in Oscillators.

The bearish divergence signal was later verified, after I reached my destination & run through the full chart on my laptop.

Here's the Sept06 FCPO post via mobile upload ---

>>> Sept 06 - FCPO showing potential reversal signal

Alright! Enough of the fun of trading/analysis on-the-go....Back to usual weekend comments on my fav trio....

>>>

On  FKLI

The Long setup did realized the day after I posted my sketch.

It's looking more & more likely for an Inverted Head & Shoulder neckline breakout on FKLI !

That's equivalent to saying that the Aug22 gap at 1,725.5-1,735.5 is about to be filled, shall the neckline breakout does occur in coming week trading.

FKLI (Hourly) - Inverted H&S neckline breakout is imminent (Sept02-06, 2013)

------

Now, here's like putting $$$$ into your pocket!!!!!

I've did up another chart on the ways I'd use to identify the top for the current rebound from 1,653 major pivot low, which technically can be called a Counter-Rally/Bear Rally, or more commonly dubbed the Dead Cat Bounce...

These methods/signals are custom made based on historical pattern of FKLI....

Do spend me a nice meal or a CoffeeBean if you do make it on the coming fall-of-the-cliff dive on FKLI... :D

FKLI (Daily) - How would I Identify a Potential Top for this Counter-Rally?? (Sept 06, 2013)

That's lots of $$$ I'm putting into ur pockets man! Check if your pocket has a hole ya... :p

 >>>

On FCPO

We might be nearing an end to the fantastic 300pt August rally...As noted in the mobile post above.

Do note though, that the MPOB August industry data is due on Sept10, while the export estimates by ITS & SGS seems to point to a more robust export demand throughout August month.

That's the potential risk to my short.

Here's the full chart analysis >>>

FCPO - Potential End to 300pt August Rally (Sept 02-06, 2013)

>>>

On GOLD

Well, GOLD was on a very nice ABC pullback from $1,433.50/ounce high made on August28.

At least until the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data came out on Friday (Sept06) night...

The NFP out was less bullish than expected, but overall still show a rise mom.

Unemployment Rate (UR) ticked down 1basis point to 7.3%, market-bullish.

Dow swing from losses to gains, & finally settled flat with a small loss by Friday's close.

Market seems pretty divided on whether a less-than-bullish NFP is actually 'good' or 'bad' for market?

This may delayed the seemingly imminent QE Tapering, as Fed ponder on the less rosy picture painted by the August NFP numbers.

Nevertheless, the UR, which is the one indicator Fed has tied to its monetary policy decisions, gives a better picture, with slow but steady decrease over the past few months.

So, what now??? @_@''.....

GOLD spiked up after the data, suggesting that traders are more inclined to believe that the data might delay Fed's tapering. Or so we think...??

Anyway, the ABC pullback I mentioned is still intact, based on the charts.

So, I'm keeping to my pullback target of 1,340-60 in the mean time, as I expect the price to correct back to the 2-month old uptrend line holding the rally from 1,180 major pivot low.

We'll see to that, then! :)

GOLD - Keeping to my pullback-to-trendline target of 1,340-1,360 (Sept 02-06, 2013)

 

>>>

Okay!!

That's about all for the week's happenings & my predictions for the week's to come, on The favorite Trio...

Happy Weekend!!

Happy Hunting for September -- It's so volatile! We should stay cautious & just Aim for the Big Money $$ !!

:) :) :)

September 03 - After-Market-Close FKLI, FCPO & GOLD

Hi All.

A quick note after I came back from US Labor Day holiday on Monday!! :p

>>>

Post by My.Trading.Space.

>>>

Im expecting some slow trading sentiment these few days, as US came back from the long weekend. While on the local front, nobody really knows what to do after the superb V-Shape rebound on FKLI last week. Hence, the narrow range trading seen these 2days.

CPO, the final piece of August export figure didn't seems to be able to extend the August rally to latest high of 2,485. That is expected coz I believed it's mostly priced-in to the >300pts rally from 2,137 pivot low, also riding on the weak Ringgit at the same time.

>>>

Alright! Happy hunting!! :) :)

August 26-30 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week5)

Hi All.

Embedded is my latest post on FB Pag, to close August as Week5 trading draws to an end.
All comments are detailed in the individual photo descriptions.

Check them out!
Happy Hunting for September -- the Most Bearish month of the year!! 
p/s: Bearish = Wonderful Short entries with nice & fast profit!! Hehe.... ;-)


>>>

Post by My.Trading.Space.

>>>

August 23 - What's with the Foreign Fund Outflow?

Hi All.

Ahhh...new post for the week of August 19-24, 2013.

Anyone can teach me how to post multiple photos in a post on FB Page??.....Feeling kinda low-tech now....lol! @_@''

Anyway, here's the link to the photo album for August 2013 posts on the page.

My.Trading.Space - August 2013 Album

I did a special feature on the recent foreign fund outflow topic rife on street...

Remember we discussed the potential bottoming out of USDMYR & MGS 10Yr-yield, all the way back when we close 1H 2013?

Here's the original post on June28

The simplest thing to do to assess how bad this 'FF outflow' thingy is affecting Malaysia markets, that includes all three equities, bond, & currency market, is to put a side-by-side comparison of the 3charts, June28 vs. Current.

A quick sneak peek here....Also, its available on the FB Page, of course.

Malaysia equity-bond-currency market, June28 vs. August23, to assess Foreign Fund Outflow effect

And then, I have the usual Favorite Trio analysis for FKLI, FCPO, & Gold, as of end of August 23, 2013.

FKLI, hammered by foreign fund outflow, is definitely setting s bearish tone.

CPO, on the other hand, buoyed by weak MYR, has been rising >100pts over the past 2 weeks, & still running strong as of Friday, August 23 close. Might see slight pullback/stall, before it continues its run towards the inverted H&S target of 2,400-2,420.

GOLD, on a double bottom breakout run-up, has been lifted further to end the week at high of 1,397.40, right below 1,400 mark, after a huge rise in jobless claim (due Thursday, Aug 22) + surprise 13% plunge of new home sales (due Friday, Aug 23).

Also, not forget to thanks the weakening USD (yes, Dollar is weakening, despite we in Malaysia seeing a furious depreciation of our Ringgit....sigh~~, depreciating against a weakening Dollar, imagine the seriousness....)

That's a quick sum up of the trio's, & on FF outflow...

>>>

Happy Weekend!!

Catch up on faster updates with me on My.Trading.Space FB Page... :)

August 16 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week2)

Hi All.

Woah!....It's been quite a while since I last actively update on my favorite trio FKLI, FCPO & GOLD.

Newton was darn right, always keep the momentum going & things shall just roll its way along with little effort. Once stopped, by distraction, or laziness :p, the inertia factor will come in & make you feel comfy to stay stagnant.

Luckily, I manage to squeeze out a force strong than the inertia, to push myself out of the comfy zone, & start posting again!....lol...bear with as I try my best to recollect on these forces/vectors blabla since Uni time...

Actually, I had been focusing on my Internet Marketing business recently, working hard to keep up with the ever-changing WWW-dimension. Internet marketing, as kaleidoscopic as the trading world; slowing down? you can kiss your business buh-bye!!

Many things has happened over the past few weeks, when I wasn't posting. But, more important things are coming next week, heads up on:

*Aug21 (Wed) - FOMC July31 meeting minute is due for release
May see further details on potential Sept QE tapering by the Fed, or may just be a repetition of what we've heard during the FOMC statement immediately following the July31 meeting
*Aug23-weekend - Fed Annual Retreat at Jackson Hole
Bernanke, & a number of other key members will not be attending, though. Expect limited impact compared to the usual attention given to this event.

On the local front,

The lingering danger of a run away govt bond yield spike has been played down my our government key officials. The rise in bond yield, coupled with rapid weakening of the MYR, especially to the USD, spells a clear signal of a fast bail-out of foreign funds, mostly on arbitraging play or with carry trades purpose, from the local financial/real-estate scene.
Nevermind all the down-playing, or denial, from our beloved government, the charts tells the inarguable truth.
Check out what the chart is telling us, long before the Ftich downgrade came, my post to close the 1st Half of 2013, dated June28, had highlighted the bottom-out of bond yield, depreciation of MYR, as the theme for 2H2013 FKLI future outlook.
*Read my June28,2013 post here*

With the tapering (or expectation of a tapering), which has been tipped to happen around Sept'13, has spooked global funds movements, typically out of emerging markets, back into developed economies, or in particular, the US, due to anticipation of a rate hike & thus, appreciation of USD to take place soon.

This will inevitably put the bubble-ish emerging markets, most of which benefited from ultra-low rates in EU & US, in tremendous pressure, as foreign fund outflows continue to happen on a rapid pace.
Malaysia, who recorded a huge slump in nation-wide exports a few months back, now face more challenges seeing liquidity out-rush from the local business scene.

Plantations, though suffer from tepid export demand, still comes out a winner due to weak MYR, still holding well.
Constructions may still be supported by the MRT mega-project.
Financials, the frontier industry to wither the foreign fund outflow storm.
Real Estates/Property, kiss them byebye before you got your hand burnt.
O&G, with crude oil's seasonally bullish period drawing to its end, may not see its recent super-strength continues, especially so when the USD continues to appreciate. That said, selected companies may still benefit from weakening MYR, though.

With most of the major sectors composing the local benchmark KLCI/FKLI barely sees their sunny days ahead, we are definitely in for a rough time for 2H2013.
However, its undeniable that KLCi/FKLI is still on a technical long-term uptrend, as of now, despite the slight weakness shown this week.

I previously discussed a possible setup using Fibonacci Fan on the FKLI. It did turned out quite well, making slight profit as of Aug16 closing of 1,789.
*Longer-term Trade setup with Fib Fan & W%R* (Posted on July 31)

FKLI rebounded sharply from the 1,760 low on Aug1, closing back above the 61.8% fib fan line, bravo! :)
It then struggled a little before breaking above the 1,783-84 minor resistance to complete a break above the downtrend line surpressing price since the fall from 1,814 in late July.
The week saw FKLI hit a high of 1,806, currently pullback to retest previous congestion area top around 1,783-84. Shall it hold, we will see a retest of 1,814 high & possibly the 1,824 July-high.

Nevertheless, momentum is clinging to a slightly weak tone throughout the week, as it fails to swing high into the 0-20% sell zone & stay above it. Instead, it made a fail swing & is threatening to reverse into bearish mode as of Aug16 close.
A successful retest & strong bounce from the 1,783-84 minor support, shall however, reverse the sentiment. A higher close above the immediate 1,806 resistance, in the mean time, shall sent momentum to its high, showing strength of the bulls.

We shall see how it turns out next week.

FKLI - Weak uptrend momentum (August 16, 2013)

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On CPO, the delayed MPOB data for July'13, due to the Raya holidays, was out with an expected build on stock level, as local consumption ease back to usual levels post- Ramadhan/Raya spike in demand.


Latest export estimates out for Aug 1-15 showed an 18% mom rise in demand, compared to same period in July. This is encouraging for CPO prices, which has recently emerged from its recent beaten-down mode, reverse & reclaimed 2,300/tonne price level, with a lift from weakening MYR too, of course.

From the charts, future price rise looks very promising, as the bulls managed to push price above the inverted H&S neckline at 2,280 level. Price rally all the way to previous strong resistance of 2,335 level, & saw a late-week decline to close slightly above 2,300 level for the week.
I'm expecting a quick retest of the neckline level of 2,280, before bouncing off into another strong upwave, which shall overcome the 2,335-45 strong resistance band, to complete the Inverted H&S pattern at around 2,400-2,420 region.

FCPO - Inverted H&S Neckline breakout. Bullish towards 2,400-2,420 (August 16, 2013)

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On GOLD, I've been updating on MyTradingSpace FB Page.
Attached the charts here for August 12, 15 & 16, respectively.

GOLD - W-bottom neckline breakout. 2nd retest & hold. Bullish! (August 12)

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GOLD - Bounce from neckline but meet resistance at 1,335-45 band. (August 15)

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GOLD - Bullish Momentum further affirmed by breaking above 1,335-45 Resistance band. (August 16)

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Seems like GOLD is on a serious reversal too! :)

I'm waiting for it to reclaim the $1,400/ounce mark.

Let's see! :D

Alrighty!

That's all for a great weekend read....haha...:p

Cheers! Keep Hunting Keep profiting!! $$$

*p/s*: If u haven't done so, please LIKE my new FB Page at the FB LIKE BOX BELOW. That will be the new home for MyTradingSpace !! Thanks!! :)

July 30-31 - FKLI, FCPO

Hi All.

Had not been posting here recently.

I brought over these two charts from my FB posts...

FCPO - Bottoming out... (July 30, 2013)

FKLI - Testing out Positional Play on FKLI with FibFan+W%R combo :) (July 31, 2013)

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Tonight, watch for FOMC Minute (1400EST), & Friday's Non-Farm Payroll (0830EST), for movement on GOLD....Now, price is obviously waiting for the news to come out before making any big moves...

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Bout watermarking my charts...heck...I think I don't wanna spoil my chart just because of some cheap plagiarizer... 

Allow me to choose The Best cover pic for my.trading.space FB page, before I launch it...hohoho! :)

Congrats on FKLI shorties & FCPO longties today!! Big moves on both!! :D

July 19 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week3)

Hi All.

As usual, my end-week3 post on the FKLI, FCPO & GOLD....for your weekend reading pleasure... :)

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On FKLI

Price has been stuck within tight consolidation range after the July11 thrust. My last two posts have been largely on waiting for a breakout, with a bias towards the upside.

Finally, the breakout came as July19 (Friday) open gap up to 1,797, went past 1,800 mark to hit an intraday high of 1,804, before closing lower at 1,798.5 in a not-so-pretty Shooting Star candle.

Price has reach my first target level at 1,800, for the rebound from July11 intraday low of 1,781.5. Expect slight pullback ahead as price fail to close above the 1,800 mark despite Friday's bullish opening gap up.

Nevertheless, subsequent supports aren't really far away, coming in at 1,796.5 | 1,791.5 | 1,784-87 levels. Obvious resistance overhead are the 1,800-1,810 level, followed by 1,820-25 (July11 high) & 1,835 (May06 high) levels above.

Also, the momentum indicator W%R bounces right off its middle 50%-level, lending some support to the Bulls camp, while the candle pattern suggests the Bears has started to warm up their paws on Friday.

Experience from previous wild-range candles suggests a high potential of seeing a 1-2month 'box consolidation' phenomenon, which is typical after each major thrusts we've gone through since April'13.

Which is why, I believe the coming pullback following Friday's Shooting Star shall find support near 1,781.5-85.5 region later. Then, we may see bounces & falls within the 1,781-1,800 range as the box consolidation makes its progress...

FKLI - Break Above Consolidation Range, But Fail to Hold Above 1,800 Mark (July 19, 2013)

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On CPO

In my July17 post, I mentioned CPO price show a small bullish candle akin to a bullish harami, & I was expecting further rebound to come.

The very next day, July18 (Thu.) saw a Long Green formed, closing not far below 2,300 immediate resistance.

On Friday (July19), price rises further, breaching through the 2,300 mark in early morning trade, hitting intraday high of 2,302. The morning gains was erased by a swift fall back below 2,295 support by lunch break on Friday. Later in the afternoon, profit taking & selling accelerated the fall & pushed price lower to close at 2,357 for the day/week.

Despite Friday's lower close in the red, price still manage to stay above the short-term daily uptrend line ( plotted as L1 on the chart). L1 has been supporting the bounce from the week's low of 2,222 recorded on Tuesday, July16.

Momentum wise, MACD histograms continue to shorten, indicating diminishing bearish momentum as price bounce from low of 2,222. Also, W%R continue to stay above its 80% line, suggesting more bears are taking a rest after working hard for more than a week.

As long as  L1  holds, I'll maintain my buy-on-dip approach, taking advantage of the counter-rally in the primary downtrend from latest major lower high of 2,400.

That said, I'd like to see price reclaimed the 2,300 psychological level as soon as possible in the coming trading week, to erase the slight softening of bullish tone after Friday's fall. We shall see then, if price can continue higher to challenge the targeted 2,325-35 resistance band.

Nevertheless, we stay cautious as we are trading counter-trend, key risk factors to note in the coming week will be:

- July 1-25 export estimates from ITS & SGS (July export estimates sucks big time thus far, with July 1-20 export figure slumping 25%mom)
- Watch for a technical breakdown of L1 uptrend line, or a turnaround in the momentum indicators.

FCPO - Counter-rally taking a breather, still intact (July 19, 2013)

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On GOLD

GOLD, is on a counter-rally, within a primary downtrend, just like our CPO at home....

Primary downtrend has found its temporary bottom at 1,180-1,200 major support band back in late June trading. It has then formed a higher low at 1,207, after pivoting at 1,180 late last month, a basic criteria for an uptrend.

My last post highlighted the ending diagonal forming on the 5H chart, hinting that the counter-rally may have temporary peaked at the strong psychological resistance level of 1,300.

Price did broke below the ending diagonal, shortly after my post on Wednesday (July17) evening, as US traders started their trading day. Nonetheless, the fall halted at 1,270-75 minor support band, & subsequently climbed higher back to the 1,290-95 diagonal range.

Despite the higher close for the trading week, bullish momentum had definitely weakened. While price late-week climb to close near week's high, it remains clinging below the diagonal pattern (plotted pink on chart). Such retest of trendline from below is a typical early warning of a potential pullback ahead, even better if coupled with a bearish divergence on any momentum indicators.

Hence, I maintain my view on a short-term pullback for current rally from 1,180 pivot low, minor support comes in at 1,250-60 | 1,235-40 | 1,225.

However, I still keep to my analysis that the counter-rally have yet to finish. I'm expecting it to continue climbing higher after this pullback, probably hitting my target of 1,330-40 | 1,370-80 | 1,400-1,420.

We shall discuss the targets in more details after we break above the 1,300 mark decisively. For that to happen, we may need some really bad economic news/data out to give gold price a strong push-up.

GOLD - Temporary Pullback, Counter-Rally still intact. (July 19, 2013)

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**

Note that my comments are now mainly written out in the post body, rather than the usual scramble all around the appended charts....:p...

Hopefully, its easier to read through, as I received some comments from several elderly readers that the writings on charts are too small for them to read...ooops...

I'm happy for the change myself, coz i prefer looking at clean&clear charts too....hehe...:)

As for the charts, if they still don't show up clearly on the Blogspot image viewing interface, u may download the images & view them in your preferred photo-viewing applications for clearer viewing.

In the mean time, I've been working on transferring my blog posts to a FB Fan Page. It's way easier to post some quick comments on FB, shall the market make sudden big moves that's worth discussing. Also, its easier to be notified on a new post, & we can also have more interactions, thus making our sharing of knowledge more accessible... :)
**

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Alright! 
Hope you all enjoy reading my post.

I shall be discussing on the recent rounds of all-time highs breaking phenomenon on most of the major US & EU market equity indices...
Despite recording new historical highs each day, technical internals are suggesting underlying weakness....hehe....almost like we're back in 2007 again! ;)

Keep that for my next post....
Happy Weekend!! :)

July 17 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Mid-Week3)

Hi All.

Mid-week review on the futures trio.... :)

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On FKLI

hmm....apa mau tulis? 

We are experiencing that damn-boring-post-massive-thrust-consolidation mood on FKLI, again...

Basically, seriously nothing much to comment about...

Just reiterating my view from previous end-week2 post, we need a decisive break above/below the current pathetic consolidation range of largely 1,785-95 (highlighted on chart), before we can see the comeback of wider range trading days.

There's one thing to note, after all...hehe...

Seems like that Fibo Fan does work on FKLI, over a slightly longer period.

Since we climbed all the way from 1,585 major pivot low early Feb'13, the 61.8% Fibo Fan line seems to be holding those subsequent higher lows on the daily quite well, in fact...

Each bounce off from the line produce pretty good upside over 1-2months time. Notice that the latest bounce from it was the earlier pivot low of 1,721.5.

Judging from the observation above, we might well see price move further up from here, after the latest pivot low of 1,721.5. Hence, there's a higher chance of a upside breakout from current consolidation range, to retest the resistance of 1,800 & 1,825-35.

That said, the weakening bullish momentum remains 'The Line' to keep an eye on....Any attempt to fall below its own mid-level of 50-60% line will tell of a weakening uptrend, also hinting that the 1,834.5 high may not be overcame anytime soon....

All in all, eyes on consolidation range breakout, or the continual weakening of bullish momentum, whichever comes first, to give us a signal to near-term market direction.....

FKLI - Still, need to breakaway from 1,785-95 Range (July 17, 2013)

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On FCPO

Fantastic breakaway from the Bear Flag mentioned in my last post....

Price hit flag breakout target within days of the breakdown, temporarily bottomed at 2,222 level.

A cute little green (closed 1tick higher, or should have qualified as a bullish harami) formed today at close of 2,254, hitting high of 2,274 though failed to hold. A little respite from the bulls camp today, or probably just the bears cashing in some of their profits on-hand.

Expect a temporary bounce from the still-rock-solid-support band of 2,220-30, with the daily mid-band as a dynamic major resistance overhead.

Minor resistance shall be the gap around 2,285-2,300, & previous fail-support region of 2,325-35.

Bearish momentum still intact as long as the 50-60% level remains a hurdle.

FCPO - Bear Flag target hit, expect temrary bounce towards 2,325-35 Region (July 17, 2013)

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Ahhh...I forgot to mention, I don't think the 2,220-2,230 support will continue to hold, this time around...:p
After the current corrective rally, I'll be looking at immediate round number minor support 2,200 below, followed by 2,000 level, my target for a breakdown of this stubborn support base....

On another note,
July1-15 export estimates gave a lousy figure, showing slump of 23-24%mom, according to cargo surveyors ITS & SGS.
Export sucks, stocks level need to combat seasonally high production period, while the local consumption demand eases after Ramadhan/Raya....where do we see any upside catalyst??...hehe...

**

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On GOLD

Price still remain within the consolidation range of about 1,285-95, now looking more like an ending-diagonal on the 5H chart.

Ending-diagonals usually follows a 2fast2furious preceding wave (usually Wave3,of any degree). Which fits just well into the recent rapid spike from 1,245 low to 1,295-97 high following a slight dovish-sounding Bernanke, during his after-US-market-hour press conference on July10.

July10 FOMC Minute...
On what Bernanke had said afterwards....

I'm maintaining my bearish bias towards short-term gold price outlook, with a confirmation of a temporary pullback shall price fall decisively below the immediate support of 1,280 level.

Support levels come in at 1,260 (61.8%) | 1,240 (50%) | 1,220, bracketed are the fibo retracement levels for the rally ranging from 1,180-1,297.

As of writing, Bernanke is testifying in front of a US Congressional panel on Fed's latest policies.

Tomorrow, he will be testifying to the US Senate.

I dunno how it will affect the market, as the stuff he is saying/will be saying tomorrow, will be the same old story we have recently heard over & over again, during pre-FOMC & post-FOMC media headlines/news cast/press conferences....

Hopefully, gold will start moving again after all these speaking engagements of Mr. Ben....:p...

GOLD - Potential Ending Diagonal, may lead to pullback from 1,297 High (July 17, 2013)

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Thanks for dropping by....
Good night, let's dream about our Happy Hunting tomorrow!! :)