Thursday, December 27, 2012

FKLI - Bearish Engulfing, Failed 1,678 Level (Dec 27)

Hi all.

I was checking on today's closing & saw a BEARISH ENGULFING candle at close. Hence, did a quick analysis on FKLI.

Previously, on Dec 24, price touched an all-time high of 1,685.5, albeit closing lower at 1,676 on that day.
Yesterday (Dec 26), we managed a close at fresh high of 1,681.5, the first close above Oct'12 peak of 1,678.

However, today, selling pressure took over late afternoon, pushing price down to close near day's low of 1,675, a first close below the trendline supporting the extended Wave C rally.
A close in a dreaded Bearish Engulfing candle further amplified the bearishness in the afternoon.

FKLI - Bearish Engulfing signal end of Dec bullishness? (Dec 27)

I've been waiting long enough to SHORT this dragging rally top, today's candle just gave a reminder for me to start monitoring FKLI again, after being away from the market for over a week.

Anyway, I will be smart enough to avoid a SHORT before the year's close.
I will keep an eye on the price movement & take my position, if any, in the fresh contract month of Jan'13, instead.

Meanwhile, let's watch if the bearish engulfing candle gets a confirmation in the last two days of trading for the Year 2012.

Enjoy the year-end holiday!
Keep Hungry & we shall Hunt again in 2013!! :)


How Much Is Your Degree Worth ??

Hi all.

Just finished watching a video shared by a few friends, titled 'The College Conspiracy'.

I've grown up being a huge fan of Kiyosaki's skepticism on the saying:
"Study hard, Go to college, Get a good Degree, Find a good job, Live well ever after."
I've even resisted further studying after secondary school, but I was not strong enough to go against 'the common practice/culture' & my family's will.

Eventually, I went for a year of Malaysian Matriculation study, followed by 4 years of University life pursuing an Engineering Degree. All of which, I estimated had cost me roughly RM70k, not to mentioned the opportunity cost over the 5 years spent studying.

Last check, I'm making a living trading futures on the local market, with skills I acquired through 2-3 years of self-study, & slightly over RM15k of investment on various mind-setting, wealth & trading courses.
None of which has anything to do with my 4 years of Engineering studies.


After watching the video, 

I was thinking, if only I've skipped the 5 years of further studies after secondary school, & jump straight to where I started self-studying on trading matters.

I could have saved myself some RM70,000 of debt, & 2-3 years of time, 
with which I could have used to practice & sharpen my trading skills, & in turn make myself a successful trader, much more earlier in my life.

Anyway, I'm thankful that I managed to take the important step to detach myself from the 'common practice', into an uncommon territory called, OUTSIDE the COMFORT ZONE.
It is exactly this uncommon ground, I believe, that nurtures its more-than-average inhabitants to achieve exceptional success, all of which too 'outstanding' for the average crowd.

Which is why, 
I especially like this quote taken from the video (at 00:35:10):


There's still a huge gap between our education system & the ever-changing global economies, businesses & environment.
To lead a better life, I still think being a street smart is much more important than being the crème de la crème of a top university. 
I have seen many 4.0 graduates who can hardly live a proper life independently of their over-protective parents, not to mentioned contributing to the economy or society.


If you have a great job, you should watch this.
If you have a schooling child, you should watch this.
If you have an urge to be more than average, start re-educate yourself by watching this.

 

Well, I'm kinda good with enticing ad-phrases! LOL :D
A great food for thought for the long break before 2012 ends, with no apocalypse!.... :)


Last but not least, I'd like to take the chance to
Wish all of you & family,
a Merry X'mas, Great 2012, & Happy 2013 !! 




Friday, December 21, 2012

FKLI - Tweezer Top, Potential End to Wave C3 ?? (Dec 21)

Hi all.

Apparently, our world is not meant to end on Mayan Apocalypse of 21.12.2012, just yet.

Instead, today might be the end to the hyper-extended Wave C(3) on our FKLI.

This afternoon, news out of Washington that the GOP has shunned the vote on the tax bill, dubbed Plan B, proposed by Rep, Boehner. 
The fact that The House will only adjourned after Christmas sent world indices down sharply, realizing that there's only few days left for a deal to materialize in order to avoid the Cliff-fall.

>>>

On FKLI, price retreats today following regional decline. We closed at 1,665 this week, forming a  Tweezers Top (2-candle formation), signalling resistance at 1,674.5 level. 

Notice that price close in vicinity of the trendline supporting the magnificent run from 1,595 low (Dec 04) to the day's high of 1,674.5.
A decisive break below the trendline shall confirm the end of the current extended Wave C(3).
An important point to note is the sudden spike in volume today, to 3x its 5d-average. Volume spike signals that a trend is near its end, which usually is followed by a trend change.

My FKLI chart for the week's close:

FKLI - Tweezers Top at 1,674.5 (Dec 21)

If Short, I'll suggest shorting the Jan'13 contract, to avoid any funny spike on Dec 31 for a 'nice-looking' year's close on KLCI.


>>>


Here, I'd like to highlight a crucial info on Malaysian government conduct.

Few days ago, there's an article on The Edge Financial Daily, discussing on Malaysia's emergence as world's Top 3 for illicit capital outflow, just behind China & Mexico.


I went on some readings & did a chart on the amount of illicit capital outflow per Malaysia GDP value. The 2011 capital outflow estimated by GFI represents a whopping 1/3 of Malaysia GDP for that year.

Imagine, had our government has implement measures to curb the illegal siphoning of capital out of our country, we might well have put an end to our consecutive 14-years of national budget deficit years ago. 

The loose regulations & deliberate ignorance on the matter's seriousness, coupled with Malaysia's infamous corrupted business environment, is more than enough as a wake-up call for Malaysian citizens.
What I can say is we should vote wisely as informed citizens in the coming GE13.

MALAYSIA - Illicit Capital Outflow vs. GDP (2001-2010)

Enjoy the year-end festive season celebrations !! :)

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

FKLI - Where Exactly are We at ?? (Dec 18)

Hi all.

Had been away from market the past few days, got tied up with some personal matters.

From the previous peak of 1,657.5, looks like the bears can only take it to 1,645, the nearest support, before the bulls come back roaring today, pushing price up 17.5pts to close the day at the high of 1,664.

I have been mentioning repeatedly that the Wave C3 is becoming super-extended. It is still progressing, indeed.

I figure the wave counts might be a little too complex, for those who are not familiar with it. Not to mentioned I described it in words, & the fact that it keeps on extending into complex sub-waves.

So, I come out with a solution for that. 
As the old saying goes: 'A picture speaks a thousand words'....

I pull out an illustration of a typical 3rd wave extension, & place it side-by-side with my updated FKLI wave counts, for easy reference.

Here's what I got:
FKLI - 3rd Wave Extension of 3rd Wave Extension (Dec 18)

The wave extension illustration (image, LHS), shall represent the whole of rebound Wave C, from Dec 14 low of 1,595.
We have since went through its sub-wave (1) & (2).

Within the current extended sub-wave (3), the smaller 3rd wave is also extended, all the way to 1,657.5.
Due to the complexity of the extended wave (3), wave principle has it that the ensuing wave (5) will be simple & shall not see further extension.
Based on today's close, obvious resistance overhead will be at 1,667 | 1,670 | 1,677 (Nov peak). 
That shall mark potential end of current developing small wave (5), which is also the end of the higher degree sub-wave (3).

After which (refer: wave extension illustration)
We still have two more waves to unfold, Wave (4) & (5), completing the bigger rebound Wave C.

Which means we might actually get a new peak before the year's close ??

With the typical December window-dressing phenomenon, a new peak is highly possible, with just about 15pts away from the Nov peak of 1,678.

Nonetheless, this year we have potential party-spoiler, the US Fiscal Cliff.
Recent Cliff-sensitive US market fluctuates wildly to headlines coming out of either the GOP-, or the President's camp.

With <10 trading days away from the looming Dec 31 deadline,  I believe market will continue taking cue from the US budget talk progress. 

I'm guessing the two parties might well strike a deal, of small achievement, & employ the main stream media to orchestrate on that to calm the market down, for a Merry X'mas & Happy 2013.
When the X'mas & New Year 2013 fiesta is all over, US citizens will wake up & realize that all was but a lie.
With all the spending cuts in effect by then, automatic layoffs, especially in US military, will hit the employment data hard. Market will adjust to reflect the cruel reality, eventually.


Thursday, December 13, 2012

Thank you for your suggestions !! :)

Hi guys & girls.

I've been posting here since....??....I can't remember.

I did went disappear a while & came back fresh with daily or once every other day commentaries on FKLI, sometimes the economics, Elliott Waves, or on any other problems around the world.

I have been constantly changing the layout/style of my posting. Wanting to find the best framework to fit my 'arts'. Lol. :)

I'd be really appreciative of your comments/suggestions on how to improve my blog/postings. Getting the view from the readers' angle is the utmost important factor in my future improvements.

Feel free to drop me an email with your suggestions & the kind of info you'd like to see in my future postings. 
Kindly drop me a mail here: kongliubi@gmail.com
 
Many thanks in advance for the constructive comments! 
Thanks to those who already contacted me through various channels, even before I posted this. Your kind support & sharing deserve a BIG

THANK YOU !!  \(^o^)/


FKLI - Price Resisted by LT Mid-channel Line (Dec 13)

Hi All.

Finally.....We got a red candle at today's close on FKLI.

Today's candle mainly signal indecision of the bulls to push price further up, after making 7 consecutive UP-days. Price have since risen a whopping 62.5 points from 1,595-1,657.5.

The strong resistance came in at 1,650-60 level , the middle-line of the long-term channels supporting the rally from 1,310-1,677 since Sept'11.
Read more on the LT channel lines in my previous post on Nov 28, on the potential reversal signal while we were at the 1,590 bottom then.
 
Here on, we can either get a stall/pause to the superb price rally, before it continues higher to retest 1,660 level. 
Or, we might see the sellers taking the long-awaited jump into the party pool, & start shooting down the exhausted bulls.

All we need is a confirmation of a breakout to the up- or downside from tomorrow's price action.

If tomorrow sees a white candle, its a continuation, we might see further push to re--challenge the strong resistance level ahead, 1,660 | 1,670 | 1,677.

If tomorrow we get another red candle or indecisive signal, I bet the bears will not wait further to jump in & make a killing.
Subsequent support for the pullback will come in at 1,645 | 1,635 | 1,625 (W-bottom neckline).

>>>

Price find resistance at LT mid-channel 1,650-60 (Dec 13, 2012)
>>>

If we are going to get a new high before the year close, it will better pullback to retest the W-bottom neckline, building a solid base for price to jump higher.

Or else, a pullback below 1,615-25 level shall pronounce the bears' victory to reverse the trend back into the previous corrective mode during the Nov plunge.

Statistically, December month always favors the bulls.
However, this year we have the all mighty mr. Fiscal Cliff blocking the bulls' way to the finish line at Dec 31, 2012.

We shall see whether the statistics or the macroeconomics which prevails, with 18 days left to battle it out.

Happy Hunting!! :)

>>>

P/S:

To my dear readers, I would like to know how I can improve on my postings.
Feel free to drop me an email with your suggestions & the info you'd like to see in my future postings. Kindly drop your mail here: kongliubi@gmail.com
Many thanks in advance for the constructive comments! :)






Wednesday, December 12, 2012

FKLI Midday - Potential End to Extended Wave C(iii) (Dec 12)

Hi all.

Firstly, wish all have a truly memorable day on 12.12.12 !!  ....\(^o^)/....

In the past 3-4 days, FKLI have managed averagely >10pts climb a day, every day, to bring us past 3 significant fibo levels since start of this week. 
Last Friday (Dec 07), FKLI close the week at 1,615. Taking today's early morning spike to 1,657.5, we have climbed a total of 42.5 points over three trading days.
The bullishness is no doubt impressive, but it's way overdone without some decent pullback, the worrisome part of the strong rally.

The current Wave C(iii), extended to 1,630, extended again to 1,644.5, & triple-extended this morning to 1,657.5.
I'd really like to see some pullback from here, since we have a potential reversal pattern for today. 
A nice pullback will be crucial if the current rally is to continue, maybe to retest the previous peak of 1,677, or even, close the year with a new high on the index.

Or, we might be affected by the US market, if the Congress still is not able to come out with a solution soon enough, to avoid falling over the Fiscal Cliff.

So, it's still early to call this the end of the previous corrective donwtrend of 1,677-1,590, while it's also still early to call this a continuation of the long-term rally from 1,310 bottom since Sept'11.
We will have to wait & see, whether the year will close on a bullish or bearish note.

Here's my analysis at midday close.

FKLI - Potential Reversal Pattern to end Extended Wave C (iii) (Dec 12, midday)

Enjoy the once in a lifetime 12.12.12 !!!
Happy Hunting !! :)


Monday, December 10, 2012

FKLI - Double-bottom Breakout (Dec 10)

Hi all.

Post-market analysis @ Dec 10, 2012

Today's furious breakout from 1,625 totally caught me off-guard.
The triggered stops managed to push price all the way up to 1,634.5, about 9-10points from b/o point, where the 50% (of 1,677-1.590 downtrend) fibo retracement line lies. 
My buy stop is triggered at 1,630 for my short at 1,625, although I initially put a tight stop of 1,628, meant to avoid being caught in a breakout, which happened.

For the day's price movement, I was expecting the completion of double-bottom by retesting the previous high of 1,625, follow by some slight pullback, before a breakout take place. 
However, all this happens within just the first 2hours of trading.
The bullishness was evident as the vital 1,625 resistance is broken, without hesitation, and the bulls managed to close the day on a nigh note. 

A look on the daily:
FKLI - Retraced 50% of 1,677-1,590 Downtrend (Dec 10)
Now that we have confirm a double-bottom breakout, let's look at how we can trade it.

After a double- or W-bottom breakout, price will most likely pullback to retest the neckline (highlighted by the pink box, chart below). 
If the neckline provides support, it will be a low-risk entry to Long for further upside.
If price pullback way below the neckline, this signals a false breakout, we can expect further downside, as the bears managed to take control by pushing down the price, amid such a classic reversal pattern.

On the hourly, both RSI & William %R indicators are well above their respective overbought levels.
MACD histogram is tracing downwards, signalling weakness in the late-afternoon rise before closing bell.
Price have been moving in up-channels. The immediate resistance comes in near the channel top & previous significant high of 1,635-40. Immediate support at 1,628 | 25 | 18-20

I'm expecting a repetition of the Nov 28-29 price movement, with a long white candle followed by a doji/small-bodied candle. 
Price might open near or slightly above today's close, travel higher to a form a higher high, then close around today's closing price.
After that, we might well see a pullback to retest the W-bottom neckline area.

FKLI - Double-bottom Breakout (Dec 10)


Based on the double-bottom pattern characteristics, a successful breakout will give a price target of minimum 1,640-60 (about 61.8-78.6% fibo retracement), taking the height of the lows to the neckline, & project it at the breakout point of  1,615-25.

However, for FKLI, we are in a retracement of the previous downtrend. As mentioned earlier, Wave C end-target based on Fibo projection is 1,625, followed by 1,635. 
As of close of 1,633.5, we are already near the projected retracement peak.
Hence, we will have to exercise extra caution if we are to hold Long positions.

Alright!
Happy Hunting!! :)

Thursday, December 6, 2012

FKLI - Wave C3(iii) Completed (Dec 06)

My post-market analysis for today (Dec 06).

Wave 4C(iii) Completed at 1.621.5 (Dec 06, 2012)
Price uptrend resisted by bollinger mid-band & downtrend channel top at 1,621.5.
Price close in Bearish Star candle & tightening bollinger band shows potential pullback & consolidation ahead.
If price pullback, strong support will be seen at 1,602 level, subsequent support as commented on chart screenshot above.

Based on current development, I'll maintain my view on this downtrend retracement. As mentioned in my previous post on Dec 05-07 Outlook.
Expect Wave C to complete at about 1,625. If yes, we are looking at a W-bottom forming with neckline at 1,625. If current retracement Wave 4 is extended (for any reason, like it's the December month?), we will have to see a breakout from the double-bottom neckline.

Anyway, that should be next week's business.

I expect tomorrow will be another consolidation with downward bias, in boring tight range.
Unless you manage to short at 1,620 or above this morning, or else, it will be in the middle of no where now, neither a Short nor a Long.

Coming week shall see some real movement, as Friday night will see the first Non-farm Payroll figure under the re-elected President Obama.

Have a great weekend ahead!
Happy Hunting!! :)



Wednesday, December 5, 2012

FKLI - Wave 4c(iii) On-track (Midday Review)

A quick review on the market at lunch break.

Wave 4c(iii) in progress (Dec 05, 1300h)   





~ HOLD if - we are able to close high today to form a White Marubozu
                   - able to close above 1,611, confirming MACD crossover 
~ Multiple contracts can consider taking partial profit around 1,610-12.

I'm currently more bias to keeping positions overnight as I believe the bullishness will carry over to tomorrow's session.

However, beware of a relatively deep Wave 4c(iv) correction, either by today or tomorrow (Dec 05@06), as the previous c(ii) pullback was rather shallow.


Lunch!! :D

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

FKLI - Dec05-07 Outlook - Rebound Wave 4(c)

Hi All.

My post-market analysis for today (Dec 04).

Today, FKLI corrected to a low of 1,595, & subsequently rebounded to a high of 1,608.5, completing Wave 4(c)(i)-(ii).
* Ref: my previous post on Dec 03 Outlook.

FKLI - Rebound Wave 4(a)-(b) Completed (Dec 04)        
Congratulations to myself & those who managed to LONG @1,597, or lower this morning !! 
:D

Those who took profit around 1,607-08 should have secure a handsome 10pts day profit, to start off their profitable December month.

Those who are still holding LONG can consider TP at end of Wave 4(c)(iii) or (c)(v).
Those who missed the 1,595-97 bottom can still join the party at Wave 4(c)(iv) low.

Experienced traders might wanna TP @ Wave (c)(iii) & enter again at (c)(iv), benefiting from every gyration of the trend.

>>> 

As of today's close, we are halfway through Wave 4(c)(iii), which I believe shall end around 1,612-1,616. We might go higher if this minuette wave (iii) is extended.

I'll like to see more volume coming in to support the price, an MACD crossover shall do us enough favor to bring in more buyers. We are at the verge of a crossover, let's see if it will be done by tomorrow (Dec 05).

>>> 

Fibo projection from Wave 4(a)-(b) gives an end-target of 1,622.5 for Wave 4(c). Again, this will be subjected to whether the (c)(iii) or (c)(v) wave is extended. 

Fibo retracement on the daily, for the downtrend from 1,677-1590, shows Wave 4 rebound potentially dampened by resistance levels of 1,623.5 (38.2% retracement) | 1,634 (50%) | 1,644.5 (61.8%).

Hence, an extended Wave 4(c) might end at 1,634 or 1,644.5.

>>>

Nevertheless, do exercise caution as we are nearing the end of the current rebound from daily bottom of 1,590, based on my wave count.

Multiple contracts may take half off the table by 1,620-25 to secure profit, while letting the remaining profit runs if price keep climbing.

>>>

I also did an early analysis on potential price movement for Wave 4(c)(iii)-(v), which shall occupy another 2-3 trading days, depending on market enthusiasm. 
I shall update accordingly if anything funny happens along the way.

FKLI - December 05-07 Outlook (2012)

Till then!
Happy Hunting!! :)


Monday, December 3, 2012

FKLI - Today's Outlook (Dec 03)

Retracement Wave 1 & 2 (Dec 03, 2012)

I believe we may have completed the 1st wave for the current retracement from bottom of 1,590.
Wave 1 from 1,590-1,617.

Currently, we are seeing Wave 2 developing. Where the 5min chart shows Wave 2(a) & 2(b) might also have completed this morning.
Measured move of Wave 2(a) shows potential Wave 2(c) end target at 1,597-1,600.

Those holding LONG might consider taking profit first, & re-enter LONG at Wave (c) bottom. LONG from <1,600 might hold, consider adding to LONG at Wave (c) bottom.

Sideliners who missed the retracement, this is the beautiful level to enter LONG, as the retracement is confirmed, & we can get to harvest the longer Wave 3, riding through the statistically bullish December month.

Any LONG for this month shall take note not to hold into the last week, unless there's significant progress on the budget talk in US to avoid falling over the Fiscal Cliff.

Happy Hunting! :)




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