Wednesday, July 31, 2013

July 30-31 - FKLI, FCPO

Hi All.

Had not been posting here recently.
I brought over these two charts from my FB posts...

FCPO - Bottoming out... (July 30, 2013)

FKLI - Testing out Positional Play on FKLI with FibFan+W%R combo :) (July 31, 2013)

Tonight, watch for FOMC Minute (1400EST), & Friday's Non-Farm Payroll (0830EST), for movement on GOLD....Now, price is obviously waiting for the news to come out before making any big moves...


Bout watermarking my charts...heck...I think I don't wanna spoil my chart just because of some cheap plagiarizer... 
Allow me to choose The Best cover pic for FB page, before I launch it...hohoho! :)

Congrats on FKLI shorties & FCPO longties today!! Big moves on both!! :D

Monday, July 22, 2013

Fxxk!! This guy copy my Blog content!!

My dear readers.

A friendly reader alerted me that this blog site is copying my WHOLE POST CONTENT on CPO, & also deleted my blogspot address printed on my charts....
 He then post my commentaries as if its from his own brains......WTF!!!!!!

I havent check his archive, God knows since when he started faking contents from all other sites....
If you have been following my post, that's exactly what I posted yesterday night on my usual end-week postings on CPO. Read it here.
Needless to say, that chart is MY CHART, even after my "" print is deliberately removed on it.....wanna play 'spot the difference' here?!!

I'm very furious & the first thing I should do is to report this guy to Blogger team.
But they required legal documents to proof that my content is copyrighted....which I don't have!...:(

I know this guy mentioned should be in my subscription list too, & will saw this post on himself.
My advice is, you better put in my name & blog as source for your 'copycat' postings, or, I will use all my resources to reveal that you're but a fake copycat!!

Even though his blog disclaimer says that his content is gathered from other reliable sources, failing to mention the source he got it from as he is posting it, & deliberate removal of people's copyright/blog site print has more than tell on what his true intention really is...

Thanks for making me feel more proud of my analysis, FAKER!!


Sunday, July 21, 2013

July 19 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week3)

Hi All.

As usual, my end-week3 post on the FKLI, FCPO & GOLD....for your weekend reading pleasure... :)



Price has been stuck within tight consolidation range after the July11 thrust. My last two posts have been largely on waiting for a breakout, with a bias towards the upside.
Finally, the breakout came as July19 (Friday) open gap up to 1,797, went past 1,800 mark to hit an intraday high of 1,804, before closing lower at 1,798.5 in a not-so-pretty Shooting Star candle.

Price has reach my first target level at 1,800, for the rebound from July11 intraday low of 1,781.5. Expect slight pullback ahead as price fail to close above the 1,800 mark despite Friday's bullish opening gap up.
Nevertheless, subsequent supports aren't really far away, coming in at 1,796.5 | 1,791.5 | 1,784-87 levels. Obvious resistance overhead are the 1,800-1,810 level, followed by 1,820-25 (July11 high) & 1,835 (May06 high) levels above.
Also, the momentum indicator W%R bounces right off its middle 50%-level, lending some support to the Bulls camp, while the candle pattern suggests the Bears has started to warm up their paws on Friday.

Experience from previous wild-range candles suggests a high potential of seeing a 1-2month 'box consolidation' phenomenon, which is typical after each major thrusts we've gone through since April'13.
Which is why, I believe the coming pullback following Friday's Shooting Star shall find support near 1,781.5-85.5 region later. Then, we may see bounces & falls within the 1,781-1,800 range as the box consolidation makes its progress...

FKLI - Break Above Consolidation Range, But Fail to Hold Above 1,800 Mark (July 19, 2013)



In my July17 post, I mentioned CPO price show a small bullish candle akin to a bullish harami, & I was expecting further rebound to come.

The very next day, July18 (Thu.) saw a Long Green formed, closing not far below 2,300 immediate resistance.
On Friday (July19), price rises further, breaching through the 2,300 mark in early morning trade, hitting intraday high of 2,302. The morning gains was erased by a swift fall back below 2,295 support by lunch break on Friday. Later in the afternoon, profit taking & selling accelerated the fall & pushed price lower to close at 2,357 for the day/week.

Despite Friday's lower close in the red, price still manage to stay above the short-term daily uptrend line ( plotted as L1 on the chart). L1 has been supporting the bounce from the week's low of 2,222 recorded on Tuesday, July16.
Momentum wise, MACD histograms continue to shorten, indicating diminishing bearish momentum as price bounce from low of 2,222. Also, W%R continue to stay above its 80% line, suggesting more bears are taking a rest after working hard for more than a week.

As long as  L1  holds, I'll maintain my buy-on-dip approach, taking advantage of the counter-rally in the primary downtrend from latest major lower high of 2,400.
That said, I'd like to see price reclaimed the 2,300 psychological level as soon as possible in the coming trading week, to erase the slight softening of bullish tone after Friday's fall. We shall see then, if price can continue higher to challenge the targeted 2,325-35 resistance band.

Nevertheless, we stay cautious as we are trading counter-trend, key risk factors to note in the coming week will be:
- July 1-25 export estimates from ITS & SGS (July export estimates sucks big time thus far, with July 1-20 export figure slumping 25%mom)
- Watch for a technical breakdown of L1 uptrend line, or a turnaround in the momentum indicators.
FCPO - Counter-rally taking a breather, still intact (July 19, 2013)



GOLD, is on a counter-rally, within a primary downtrend, just like our CPO at home....

Primary downtrend has found its temporary bottom at 1,180-1,200 major support band back in late June trading. It has then formed a higher low at 1,207, after pivoting at 1,180 late last month, a basic criteria for an uptrend.

My last post highlighted the ending diagonal forming on the 5H chart, hinting that the counter-rally may have temporary peaked at the strong psychological resistance level of 1,300.
Price did broke below the ending diagonal, shortly after my post on Wednesday (July17) evening, as US traders started their trading day. Nonetheless, the fall halted at 1,270-75 minor support band, & subsequently climbed higher back to the 1,290-95 diagonal range.
Despite the higher close for the trading week, bullish momentum had definitely weakened. While price late-week climb to close near week's high, it remains clinging below the diagonal pattern (plotted pink on chart). Such retest of trendline from below is a typical early warning of a potential pullback ahead, even better if coupled with a bearish divergence on any momentum indicators.

Hence, I maintain my view on a short-term pullback for current rally from 1,180 pivot low, minor support comes in at 1,250-60 | 1,235-40 | 1,225.
However, I still keep to my analysis that the counter-rally have yet to finish. I'm expecting it to continue climbing higher after this pullback, probably hitting my target of 1,330-40 | 1,370-80 | 1,400-1,420.
We shall discuss the targets in more details after we break above the 1,300 mark decisively. For that to happen, we may need some really bad economic news/data out to give gold price a strong push-up.

GOLD - Temporary Pullback, Counter-Rally still intact. (July 19, 2013)


Note that my comments are now mainly written out in the post body, rather than the usual scramble all around the appended charts....:p...
Hopefully, its easier to read through, as I received some comments from several elderly readers that the writings on charts are too small for them to read...ooops...
I'm happy for the change myself, coz i prefer looking at clean&clear charts too....hehe...:)
As for the charts, if they still don't show up clearly on the Blogspot image viewing interface, u may download the images & view them in your preferred photo-viewing applications for clearer viewing.
In the mean time, I've been working on transferring my blog posts to a FB Fan Page. It's way easier to post some quick comments on FB, shall the market make sudden big moves that's worth discussing. Also, its easier to be notified on a new post, & we can also have more interactions, thus making our sharing of knowledge more accessible... :)


Hope you all enjoy reading my post.

I shall be discussing on the recent rounds of all-time highs breaking phenomenon on most of the major US & EU market equity indices...
Despite recording new historical highs each day, technical internals are suggesting underlying weakness....hehe....almost like we're back in 2007 again! ;)

Keep that for my next post....
Happy Weekend!! :)

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

July 17 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Mid-Week3)

Hi All.

Mid-week review on the futures trio.... :)


hmm....apa mau tulis? 
We are experiencing that damn-boring-post-massive-thrust-consolidation mood on FKLI, again...
Basically, seriously nothing much to comment about...

Just reiterating my view from previous end-week2 post, we need a decisive break above/below the current pathetic consolidation range of largely 1,785-95 (highlighted on chart), before we can see the comeback of wider range trading days.

There's one thing to note, after all...hehe...
Seems like that Fibo Fan does work on FKLI, over a slightly longer period.

Since we climbed all the way from 1,585 major pivot low early Feb'13, the 61.8% Fibo Fan line seems to be holding those subsequent higher lows on the daily quite well, in fact...
Each bounce off from the line produce pretty good upside over 1-2months time. Notice that the latest bounce from it was the earlier pivot low of 1,721.5.

Judging from the observation above, we might well see price move further up from here, after the latest pivot low of 1,721.5. Hence, there's a higher chance of a upside breakout from current consolidation range, to retest the resistance of 1,800 & 1,825-35.
That said, the weakening bullish momentum remains 'The Line' to keep an eye on....Any attempt to fall below its own mid-level of 50-60% line will tell of a weakening uptrend, also hinting that the 1,834.5 high may not be overcame anytime soon....

All in all, eyes on consolidation range breakout, or the continual weakening of bullish momentum, whichever comes first, to give us a signal to near-term market direction.....

FKLI - Still, need to breakaway from 1,785-95 Range (July 17, 2013)


Fantastic breakaway from the Bear Flag mentioned in my last post....
Price hit flag breakout target within days of the breakdown, temporarily bottomed at 2,222 level.

A cute little green (closed 1tick higher, or should have qualified as a bullish harami) formed today at close of 2,254, hitting high of 2,274 though failed to hold. A little respite from the bulls camp today, or probably just the bears cashing in some of their profits on-hand.

Expect a temporary bounce from the still-rock-solid-support band of 2,220-30, with the daily mid-band as a dynamic major resistance overhead.
Minor resistance shall be the gap around 2,285-2,300, & previous fail-support region of 2,325-35.

Bearish momentum still intact as long as the 50-60% level remains a hurdle.
FCPO - Bear Flag target hit, expect temrary bounce towards 2,325-35 Region (July 17, 2013)

Ahhh...I forgot to mention, I don't think the 2,220-2,230 support will continue to hold, this time around...:p
After the current corrective rally, I'll be looking at immediate round number minor support 2,200 below, followed by 2,000 level, my target for a breakdown of this stubborn support base....

On another note,
July1-15 export estimates gave a lousy figure, showing slump of 23-24%mom, according to cargo surveyors ITS & SGS.
Export sucks, stocks level need to combat seasonally high production period, while the local consumption demand eases after Ramadhan/Raya....where do we see any upside catalyst??...hehe...



Price still remain within the consolidation range of about 1,285-95, now looking more like an ending-diagonal on the 5H chart.
Ending-diagonals usually follows a 2fast2furious preceding wave (usually Wave3,of any degree). Which fits just well into the recent rapid spike from 1,245 low to 1,295-97 high following a slight dovish-sounding Bernanke, during his after-US-market-hour press conference on July10.
I'm maintaining my bearish bias towards short-term gold price outlook, with a confirmation of a temporary pullback shall price fall decisively below the immediate support of 1,280 level.
Support levels come in at 1,260 (61.8%) | 1,240 (50%) | 1,220, bracketed are the fibo retracement levels for the rally ranging from 1,180-1,297.

As of writing, Bernanke is testifying in front of a US Congressional panel on Fed's latest policies.
Tomorrow, he will be testifying to the US Senate.
I dunno how it will affect the market, as the stuff he is saying/will be saying tomorrow, will be the same old story we have recently heard over & over again, during pre-FOMC & post-FOMC media headlines/news cast/press conferences....

Hopefully, gold will start moving again after all these speaking engagements of Mr. Ben....:p...

GOLD - Potential Ending Diagonal, may lead to pullback from 1,297 High (July 17, 2013)


Thanks for dropping by....
Good night, let's dream about our Happy Hunting tomorrow!! :)

Sunday, July 14, 2013

July 12 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week2)

Hi All.

Had problem logging into my Blogger account over the past week. Now seems to be okay dy...

This was what I posted on Google+, after-market comments for July11 (Thu).
July 11 (After Market)

Yesterday's lower close after MPOB industry report left the daily uptrend line a little challenged. 
We got a confirmation of a temporary pullback today, as price closed lower at 2,371, hitting an intraday lower low of 2,365. 
Expect further weakness towards support band of 2,355-65, 2,335-45.

Another huge thrust today at open, hitting day high of 1,824, retraced all the way back to day low of 1,781.5, & closed 1,788. 

Support level of 1,781.5-84.5 is holding well. Price may retrace the fall from 1,824 high tomorrow, see strength towards resistance level of 1,791.5-96.5 | 1,800 | 1,820-25. 
After such a wide range thrust, as history has it, we shall see weeks of ranging price movement until we get the next 'spike'...Tough environment for traders indeed....

Big news for the past week was the FOMC minute released to media on July10 (Wed) night. 
The minute showed wide range QE tapering discussion among the participants (19 committee members in the FOMC, but only 12members have voting rights).
The trouble came from Fed chairman Bernanke's press conference after the minute was released (July 10, 1600EST).
His dubious answers as to when the QE tapering will begun (despite most FOMC committees leaning towards immediate/gradual QE tapering to take place according to the meeting minute), sent Asian market opening to wild rallies, followed by across-the-board rally on EU & US market later into the global trading day on July11 (Thu.)


In case you weren't aware, that was the reason (or the excuse...?) for our FKLI opening to a wild thrust on July11(Thu), opened at 1,776 but zoomed into a magical thrust to 1,824 high within seconds, before slumping back to earth below 1,790 levels, as the underlying benchmark KLCI opened at 9am gapping up, but did not showed wild swings.

That's the beauty of our FKLI, where magic happens once in a while to test your cardiac muscle strength....Some people happy, most people sad....the norm of The Market....

History has it, we will usually see at least a month-long consolidation following such massive range days, refer Apr03 & May06 candles, & what ensues them... :p
Making the scenario even more complex, the latest July11 thrust was nothing but another longer inside bar, relative to the May06 candle. 
Which means, despite the new-found excitement on FKLI, we still do not have a clear near-term direction....Still stuck in the post-May06 sideway range of roughly 1,735-1,795, sometimes to the extreme low of 1,720-30, or high of 1,800-1,820.

From a longer term view though, we are still technically in a uptrend, as long as the 1,720 strong support level is unchallenged.
Braced for further sideway movement ahead, as the price continue to consolidate the May06 record-breaking thrust.
In the coming week, expect price to retrace its rapid fall from 1,824 high on July11, meaning price may slowly climb back to test the 1,791.5-1,800 | 1,820-25 | 1.834.5 (May06 high) levels. Shall they remained a hurdle not past, price may then reverse back down to the now-familiar support levels of 1,781 | 1,770-75 | 1,760 | 1,750 | 1,735-40.

FKLI - Further Consolidation Ahead...:(... (July 12, 2013)


CPO, meanwhile, fall from heaven after the MPOB data released on July10 (Wed).
The June MPOB data showed further decline on stocks level to more than 12-month low of 1.65mil tonnes. Nonetheless, export demands tilted up a mere 0.3%mom while production picked up 2.3%mom, more than expected.
Worse still, the July 1-10 export estimate figures, out on the same day, showed a slump of 16%mom as reported by cargo surveyors ITS & SGS.
The surge in local consumption over in recent months may be associated to heighten demand ahead/during the Ramadhan month festivities.
As we are now already in the Ramadhan month, its pretty safe to say that local retailers will not see such need to stock up on cooking oil for near term future anymore.
Which means, more nad news for CPO price ahead...

CPO price gapped up a little after the rather bullish MPOB data, but the gains quickly faded into a reversal & eventually a lower close on July10, hinting on a slight dent of the bullish sentiment which had carried price to the 2,400 high from 2,324 low since early-July.

The weakness in the bulls' camp was spotted by the bears & price eventually succumbed to strong selling pressure on July11-12 (Thu-Fri), leaving the week closed low at 2,300/tonne level, in a bearing engulfing weekly candle.
Shall the 2,295-2,305 support band holds for the moment, we may see some slight technical rebound to 2,305-10 | 2,320-25 region.
However, price has now back into downtrend mode, continuing the fall from latest 2,490 high in  mid-June. Adopt the sell-on strength approach as long as price continue to make lower highs & stay below 2,380-2,400 resistance levels.
Shall the 2,295-2,305 support band fails, look for support further down at  2,270-80 | 2,250-60 | & the all-crucial 2,220-30 levels. 

FCPO - Risk of more Downside towards 2,230, or lower (July 12, 2013)


GOLD's week can be summarized as below:
  1. July08-09 (Mon-Tue) continued the strong rebound from latest pivot low of 1,207 recorded last Friday (July05).
  2. July10 (Wed) saw consolidation between 1,240-60 tight range after hitting a high of 1,258 on late Tuesday trading.
  3. July11 (Thu) saw price surged past 1,255-60 resistance band after Bernanke's press conference (July10 1600EST), where he was reluctant to confirm a date for QE4 tapering & repeatedly stressed on the separation between QE Tapering & eventual hike on the benchmark Interest Rate. GOLD price continue to surge during Asian market hours to a high of 1,297, before pulling back into a consolidation range between 1,275-85.
The week saw GOLD closed on a bullish Long White/Green...:p...weekly candle, ranging about 90pts between 1,207-1,297.
Coming week may see GOLD consolidate this week's rally a little, with support lying around 1,260-65 | 1,240-50 & 1,225-30 region.
On the mid-term outlook, I still see that the downswing from 1,800 high may have reach a temporary low at 1,180-1,200 band on June28. I maintain my view on the current rebound from 1,200 major support, that is it has a great chance to go beyond the psychological 1,300 mark, towards 1,330-40 resistance band, or even 1,395-1,415 further resistance overhead.
We are still in a corrective rally mode (i.e. --> major trend=downtrend, but we are currently correcting the price fall of the downtrend, means price will be on a temporary rebound uptrend, untila point where buyers become reluctant to buy further.) 

GOLD - Expect temporary pullback, Corrective rally from 1,180 major low still intact (July 12, 2013)


Alright, that's it for the end-week post.
I'm working on migrating my posts to a FB Page...:)...Well, gotta say its easier & more accessible on FB...Besides, Blogger is having some server technical problems recently which is disrupting my blog posting & readers access...hmm...

I shall update on my coming posts when the FB Page is ready....In the mean time, we just bear with the Blog-era post updates, shall we?....hehe....

Gotta go enjoy my Sunday!! :)
Happy Hunting for the coming week!! 

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

July 10 - MPOB End-June Inventory & Export Data

*Malaysia’s June Palm Oil Exports 1.41 Mln Tons; Up 0.3% on Month -MPOB
*Malaysia June CPO Output 1.42 Mln Tons; Up 2.3% on Month -MPOB
*Malaysia’s End-June Palm Oil Stocks 1.65 Mln Tons; Down 9.4% on Month -MPOB

Malaysia’s End-June Palm Oil Stocks 1.65mil tonnes, the lowest reading recorded since Mar'2011.
Despite the lower stock level, the dark cloud over the local palm oil industry still here to stay.

As you read further into the industry report out,
  • Higher local consumption is still the only positive factor helping in easing the stock level.
  • Output still climbing, albeit in a slower than expected rate during the seasonal high production period through Q2 (April-June).
  • Exports demand remain subdue, up only a marginal 0.3% m.o.m.
The heighten local consumption demand is reasonable given that the Muslim Ramadhan Month has just started, with the Raya just a month away.

CPO price may find support in the bullish report released, price shall be buoyed by the Ramadhan & Raya theme, for a little while more.
Let's see if that will be able to send price pass the 2,400-2,420 resistance band now.

Till then!
Happy Hunting!! :)

Monday, July 8, 2013

July 05 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week1)

Hi All.

This end-week post came a little late, as I was not able to access my NextView platform the whole morning today...@_@''

FKLI was flattish, slightly to the upside throughout the week, traded in lackluster volume within tight price range.
My cautiously bearish stance pays off as the sentiment turned a little more bullish since my last post on July03.
Nevertheless, the uptrend on the daily, although remained intact (higher lows observed), suppressed bullish momentum suggests underlying weakness while price stuck at high.
I'll be keeping my trades brief, avoiding holding positions, until the overall near-term direction become clearer.

FKLI - Underlying weakness on the daily uptrend (July 05)


CPO bounce further in a corrective rally, after the bulls gained a upper hand in price control on July 03 (Wed).
Target of 2,400-2,420 remains an overhead strong hurdle to overcome.

Watch the MPOB June'13 industry report due out on July10 (Wed), as traders might square off their positions on Mon-Tue while Wed morning session may be quiet.

FCPO - Corrective rally towards 2,400-2,420 Resistance Band (July 05)

GOLD bulls defended the 1,200 strong psychological support despite a very bullish NFP data out of Friday night, which sent Dow closing up nearly 150pts, shooting past its 15,000 strong resistance.

Hitting an intraday low of 1,207 on Friday, gold price made a higher low (relative to the major pivot low of 1,180 formed 2weeks ago).
Shall the 1,200 support level continues to hold, expect the corrective rally from 1,180 to extend further over 1,267 latest high. Immediate target 1,300 resistance.

GOLD - 1,200 strong support holds despite bullish NFP (July 05)

That shall close July Week1 trading....
Happy Hunting for the coming week!! :)

Thursday, July 4, 2013

July 03 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (into 2H13)

Hi All.

My first post in the 2nd Half of 2013.... :) 

US on a shortened trading day tonight, celebrating their Independence Day on July 04. US markets will be closed for tomorrow.
When they come back, another much-awaited NFP figure for June'13 will be due out on Friday (July 05) at 0830 Eastern Time.
As of writing, US major indices are on a typical day-before-major-holiday rally, reversing a weak start on deep Asian & EU market losses.

FKLI weakens after a steep 60-pt rally from 1,721.5 low to 1,781.5 high over a week's time.
Expect further downside towards 1,758-63 support band, followed by 1,750 | 1,735-40 levels.

The rally that scaled a high of  1,781.5, above immediate pivot high of 1,776.5, has violated the downtrend channel formed since price fall from 1,796.5 high earlier in May.
Momentum also spike to a high, breaking above its own downtrend line since May06 massive thrust.
A little divergent is observed, as further weakness is expected ahead, while underlying technicals paints a seemingly bullish picture.
Further clarity lies in the point at which current downward movement finds its support.

FKLI - Weakness ahead but technical on a divergence, further confirmation needed (July 03)


CPO struggled a little on the 2,335 support level, before the bulls pushed for a higher close today to mark a potential end to a pretty sharp pullback, after the magnificent May-June 260pt rally.

Further rise above the immediate resistance of 2,370-80 tomorrow shall firm up the bullish sentiment.
Expect a corrective rally towards 2,400-2,420 major resistance band.

On another note, SoyOil seems bullish, potentially forming an inverted H&S pattern after prolonged weakness in lack luster trades over the past months.

FCPO - Bull's comeback, further strength towards 2,400-2,420 resistance band. (July 03)

GOLD traders shall have a break, before they face the NFP on Friday. :)

GOLD - Bounce from 1,200 confirmed, Target 1,300-1,330 (July 03)

An interesting read for the week as US celebrates its 237th Independence Day....

That's it for now....
Happy Hunting!!

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