Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Feb 27 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi all.

Missed my daily analysis the past two days, had row of dinners to attend last few nights.
So, I gotta squeeze out some time to make quick comments on the FKLI & FCPO today, a quick update for my readers. :)

I have made clear my observations on the inset comments on the charts, more words squeezed into the chart than it usually does... LOL... :D

Basically, the FKLI is stuck within a 2-day old consolidation range, after strong bullish days sent the index futures rebounding up from latest pivot low of 1,593.
We shall wait for a decisive breakout from the range, up- or downside, to determine our next big trade. In the mean time, day traders may do some ST swing trades within the range bottom & high.

FKLI - Consolidate after bullish rebound from 1,593 low (Feb 27)

>>>

On FCPO, price has helplessly fall out of the daily uptrend channel since Monday opening gap down.
The drop sustained for the 3rd straight day today, though we see some intraday respite from the Bull's Camp.
Bears are facing some significant support levels right now, which may hinder further drop in price from here.
We may see temporary rebound happening soon but this week's drop has officially change the near-term sentiment from bullish to bearish.
For the coming week(s), I expect price to rebound, hit resistance, & turn down to form lower low (than the current low of 2,400-2,410), testing the MT strong support of 2,210-30 again.

FCPO - A helpless 'Fall-out' from daily up-channel (Feb 27)

Till then!
Happy Hunting!! :)

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Feb 22 - FKLI, FCPO & SoyOil (Closing Week 3)

Hi All.

As if hearing my impatience, FKLI finally had an upside breakout from the 2-week descending flat.
With the 2 trendlines defining the descending flat plotted on the daily, its more than obvious since the opening that an upside breakout has occurred.

I really like this quote from George Soros, one of the trader figure I like most.
" It's not whether you're right or wrong, but how much money you make when  you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. "
So, I was right about the imminent breakout. But I was losing money on day trades this Fri (Feb 22).
 
In my previous posts, I repeatedly remind myself & readers to be cautious & do not get carried away by the shorting frenzy from election jitters.
Nonetheless, as crazy as it sounds, I myself fell into the trap of shorting on rumor, or whatever it was.

I was basically shorting my way up throughout Friday's session, somehow. 
Looking back, it was almost impossible to explain why I did what I did, with my day trades looking totally unreasonable & unprofessional.

I did up a 5min chart on FKLI to record my out-of-mind trades on Feb 22.


The losses was in control, but the fact that I was shorting on an obvious ST uptrend, with the knowledge of a potential upside breakout happening on the daily, it was devastating to my confidence & state of mind.
The last straw that utterly breaks me was the fact that, when an almost perfect setup for an upside breakout occurred in the last minutes of trading, I had already reached my daily losses limit & was not able to take advantage of it.

As a full-time trader, the last thing one should do is to trade emotionally, not to mention totally against the initial trading plan. Its not just unprofessional, but it's also suicidal.
You'd find yourself not only made unnecessary losses, but also missed the real opportunity that comes by.

I share this experience here to remind myself to always be in my clear mind if I was to trade. Also, I hope this can be a real-life exemplary lessons all readers can take heed from.
I have spent the whole Saturday reflecting on my past trades & clearing my mind. 
The ability to separate your personal life from your professional work is ultimately important, even more so when you are in the trading business.

>>>

Back to FKLI outlook,

Don't worry, I'm now analyzing in my clear mind. ^_^''
 
Friday's upside breakout from the descending flat shows that bulls are now on head-to-head tussle with the bears.
I have cleared all my positional shorts prior to the last-minute breakout. I personally think we should see the breakout as a signal to take profit on accumulated shorts on-hand, rather than rushing into long positions.
A typical breakout like the one we are experiencing will always be followed by a fast pullback to retest the breakout point or any support levels to its proximity. 
A swing/positional Long entry shall only be when the support/breakout level holds during the retest.

FKLI - Finally breakout from descending flat (Feb 22)

>>>

CPO started out on a bullish note on Friday morning, but late evening selling saw it close flat at opening price of 2,532, forming an inverted crucifix doji, sitting on the daily uptrend channel (lower line).

Although the daily uptrend channel still holds, there's an inevitable sign of weakness among the bulls.
Shorter time frame charts paint a more bearish picture than the daily suggest. There's a potential of a retest on latest pivot low of 2,476, based on price projection on the hourly & 15min.

Another catalyst for a potential breakdown of CPO price comes from the bearishness in SoyOil price. On the daily, SoyOil formed a three black crows bearish candlestick pattern, coupled with a close below the daily uptrend channel on Sat (Feb 23) morning.
This may add to the bearishness on CPO price when it opens on Monday. We shall see if price is able to close on a higher note on Monday, if a lower open did occur.
 
FCPO - Inverted crucifix doji, still within daily up-channel (Feb 22)

SoyOil - 3-Black-Crows, Break Below Daily Up-Channel (Feb 22)

>>>


Share a movie on how Chicago floor traders saw the glorious of their floor trading days loses its sparkles when computer trading came into scene.

Floored: Into The Pit - A movie about Chicago floor traders


That's about all for the closing of Week 3, Feb'13.
No news on any parliamentary dissolution, yet. Rumors are still rumors.

Till then,
Let's keep a clear mind.
Plan your trade, trade your plan.
Stay on top of your game!!

Happy Hunting!! :)










 

















Friday, February 22, 2013

Feb 21 - FKLI, FCPO & SoyOil

Hi all.


FKLI did saw a strong rebound to take out yesterday's high of 1,607.5, before settling at 1,605.5 by close.
I believed many didn't prepare for that strong a rebound, not until it became obvious.

The rebound set a close in a 7th consecutive long-legged candle within the descending flat seen after market return from CNY holiday on Feb13.
This has gone too far to be a flag, I will stay with calling it a Descending flat instead. 
Whatever it is, it has to breakout from the two lines holding the candles, either to the downside or upside, to give a clearer direction for near future.
I'm getting really impatient looking the extending row of long-legged candles squeezed between the two downward-sloping lines.

Irregardless of the impatience, I had been very determined to keep a clear mind amid the shorting frenzy on election rumors. 
And I strongly suggest traders to not get carried away by their bearish bias based on the parliament dissolution which rumors rife that it will be announced tomorrow (Feb 22).

Whether its an event or non-event tomorrow, we just be prepared for either outcome.

FKLI - 7th consecutive long-legged candle in descending flat (Feb 21)
>>>

CPO saw a rather wide gap down to open at 2,516 today. Price quickly recover back above 2,520 & 2,530 support levels though.
Saw the day finished at 2,536 with mainly sideway movement after the morning gap.

Price is sitting right on the daily uptrend channel (lower line) as a result of today's gap.
As of now, I see it as a retest on the previous downtrend line following the descend from latest high fo 2,593 early Feb.

SoyOil is rather weak on the ST after it failed to break above the daily up-channel middle line.
On the longer term view though, it is still bullish as long as the uptrend channels still hold the price.
As of writing, price is pulling back to test the channel lower line at about 51.20cents. 
We will check if that will hold, or not, tomorrow morning.

FCPO - Gap Down, Uptrend Channel still holds (Feb 21)

SoyOil - Price below mid-channel, support at 51.20 (Feb 21)

Prepare for the excitement tomorrow. Whether there will be a much-awaited announcement, or not.
Happy Hunting!! :)

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Feb 20 - FKLI, FCPO & SoyOil

Hi all.

FKLI did saw bulls gaining some strength with a close on Hammer, albeit closing in red, just a tick below yesterday's 1,607.5 close.

Tomorrow may see a spill over of the Hammer effect, expect slight rebound, which may still be hindered by the short-term downtrend line from 1,705 peak.

Including today's, there's been a 6th consecutive similar range candles traveling within a tight descending flat. The setup is of striking similarity with the one saw near the peak mid-Jan.
This can't help but excites me a lot, as we now know what happened after that, the dreaded Jan21 plunge.

History to repeat itself?
After all, TA is all about historical data analysis.....:D
We'll see.

FKLI - Formed Hammer, Slight rebound ahead (Feb 20)

>>>

On CPO, bullish sentiment dented a little on weaker than expected Feb1-20 export figures.

On the short-term, there's weakness in the bullishness, as today's slight pullback had gone beyond yesterday's low, despite a higher high formed earlier after the open.
Bears seemed to have took over the control after the data release.

However, on a mid-to-long term view, the uptrend is still intact. Still, bulls have to take out the immediate resistance level overhead at 2,590-2,600 as soon as possible, to keep the bullish sentiment in place.

Earlier in the evening saw a ST bullish flag breakout on SoyOil, which helped lifted CPO price, before bears push price down again to the day's lower close at 2,561.

Same case for SoyOil, temporary weakness (earlier flag breakout failed at 2300h), but the mid-term bullishness is still intact.

FCPO - Slight pullback, bears gaining strength (Feb 20)

SoyOil - Flag Breakout failed, Price testing ST uptrend line (Feb 20)

Till then!
Happy Hunting!! :)



Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Feb 19 - FKLI, FCPO & SoyOil

Hi All.

Back from my CNY holiday!! 

Was on semi-holiday since market re-open after CNY holiday on Feb13.
Had been a little slack these two days, but managed to get in sync with the market again. :D

>>>

On FKLI

Since the wide range day on Feb13 upon market re-open after long holidays, price had been stuck in a consolidation ranged 10-15pts for the past few days, which saw 4 consecutive red candles on a downward slope, including today's.

A check on the last 4 daily candles shows that they are actually strongly resisted by the downtrend line from 1,705 peak.
Which explained their weird-looking 'hanging-in-the-air' downward slope on the daily chart...

An MACD crossover almost occurred before today's down day, which may have tricked some eager buyers into action.
By end of the day, its pretty obvious that the crossover will not be happening as the two MAs diverge further to the downside.

I was expecting a more furious drop today but it seems that buyers are still not giving up yet. They managed to take over & push price to close higher at 1,607.5, near middle of the day's range.
We may see the buying interest spill over to tomorrow's session, but sellers may not easily give way to any rise, too, I supposed.

Thus, there may well be some indecision tomorrow, barring any unforeseen breakouts from either sides at the open.
Resistance lies at 1,612.5 (past days consolidation bottom), 1,615-16 level where the downtrend line extends to, & further up at 1,621.5-25 | 1,630-32 | 1,640 levels, respectively.

FKLI - Price hugging downtrend line from 1,705 peak (Feb 19)

>>>

On FCPO

CPO has been on a graceful upward climb since the last pivot low at 2,217 mid Dec'12.
Price rise along an uptrend channel of about 130pts, with the latest higher low formed at 2,476 level.

Today saw price open gap up above the 2,550 resistance level, & subsequently close the day up at 2,565, hitting an intraday high of 2,575.
Price has successfully breakout from the downward bias induced by the temporary pullback from 2,592-2,476. Managed a stay within the mid-term uptrend channel.

Based on the uptrend channel, resistance comes in at 2,630 overhead.
However, price has to break the strong psychological resistance of 2,600-2,615, before it can rise further up. Immediate resistance comes in at 2,590 level.

Favorable fundamental data is also backing the climb in price.
End-Jan stockpile eased to 2.58mil ton, from an all-time high of 2.63mil recorded in Dec'12.
Export demand has been on a rising trend from Feb1-15, as reported by ITS & SGS.

The reinstatement of CPO export tax of 4.5% effective Mar1 may stir some concerns among the bulls. However, the immediate effect may be a rise in export demand for Feb'13 as importers take full advantage of the duty-free exports before it lapses.


FCPO - Price bullish, Hindrance at 2,600-2,615 (Feb 19)

>>>

Rising SoyOil price is yet another cheerleader for the bulls' camp.
Price has been rising steadily in an up-channel since Nov'12.

However, note that price has also hit the long-term downward consolidation channel top at around 51.90cents.
On the short-term, we may see another upleg to test the ST up-channel top. But price may have to overcome strong resistance to breakout to the upside, continuing the uptrend.

SoyOil - ST uptrend intact, face LT resistance at 51.90 level (Feb 19)

That ends my first serious post after coming back from CNY holiday mood.
Enjoy peeps!
Happy Hunting!! :)




Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Feb 13 - Short-lived breakout from downtrend line

To my dear readers,

~~*~* Happy Chinese New Year 2013 !! Gong Hey Fatt Choy !! *~*~~


It's 4th day of CNY, I monitor the market as usual because we are actually at quite a critical price level currently. A make or a break will determine the next mid-term trend, either an up or a down one.

This morning saw a swift break of the past week downtrend line, at the opening gap of 1,626.5 level, which subsequently trigger up to 1,640 & quickly reversed back down to opening level, & lower.

Since tested the long-term support of 1,587, price has saw a strong recovery back up to above 1,600 level, forming an uptrend line that has supported the rebound the past 2-3 trading days.

As of writing, the current day low is at 1,622.5, right above that short-term uptrend line from 1,587 low.
To invalidate the morning gap up bullishness, price will have to close in red, preferably below the 1,620-25 important support level to continue previous downtrend from 1,705 peak.
We will see to that.
FKLI - Opening gap, temporary break of short-term downtrend line (Feb 13)

In the mean time, enjoy the CNY celebration & it doesn't hurt if you even make some angpau money as the market open to the new Snake Year of 2013!!

Happy CNY!! Huat arr!! :D


Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Flash - FKLI (Feb 06) - Downside Breakout from Consolidation

Hi guys/girls.

A quickie analysis during lunch.

FKLI did BREAKOUT of the ascending triangle consolidation, to the DOWNSIDE! (though I was on the bulls' camp as of yesterday close)

That spells the end of the temporary rebound from 1,601.5 low (Jan22) to 1,638 high (Feb04).

The triangle breakout minimum target of 20pts is achieved as price dropped from 1,630-1,604.5 morning session low.

We are seeing bears taking a breather now, with price consolidating within 1,605-1615 range as of close for midday break.

For the day, we may well see price recover back to about 1,615-25 on technical rebound.
Whether or not the day will end with a new low remains to be seen.

On the mid-term though, FKLI is firmly bearish as today's breakout signal continuation to previous downtrend from 1,705 all-time high.

Previous consolidation may be considered as a BEAR FLAG, which then gives a mid-term downside target of 1,560, which is also a 2.618 fibo projection target from 1,705 peak.

FKLI - Downside breakout from triangle/flag, Continuation of Downtrend (Feb 06)
 
P/S: CPO is having a BB Squeeze in super-tight range, anticipating a big move ahead also....:D

Feb 05 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi All.

On FKLI
 
Today saw a broadly sideway move on FKLI, ranging between the 1,625-35 range.
On the daily, price has consolidated to the upside since Jan 21-21 plunge low of 1,601.5, now seems to be forming an ascending triangle.

Price was unable to break above the resistance yesterday's high of 1,638, which is of a little concern to my bullish bias on the index future.
Given that an inside bar is formed on the daily, signaling a pause to previous strong move up from 1,620-38 the past two days. I'll give it another day for a price breakout from the consolidation phase.

As of writing, DJI saw a surge over 100pts back above 14,000, as U.S. home prices grew 0.4% in December to stretch the year-on-year gain to 8.3%.
That's nearly a 1% higher than the 7.4% growth registered in 2011, while being the strongest gain seen post-crisis.

FKLI - Consolidate in Ascending Triangle. A Breakout is Imminent. (Feb 05)

Encouraging housing data in the US, & that rally on DJI, if sustainable overnight, shall be a strong catalyst to a potential breakout tomorrow on our benchmark KLCI & FKLI.

>>>

On FCPO

Another Inside Bar formed today, trading was tepid within a 20ticks range.
This indicates that traders are not ready to make the move yet, still pondering over their trade decisions.
We will have to see on which side the breakout will occur, trading in its direction shall prove rewarding.

Momentum indicators are on the high side, favoring the bears in this case.
MACDh saw a first red which adds further to the downside pressure.

Adding to the pressure, is the SoyOil price which is struggling to stay above the support levels of 52.70-52.95, after it broke below its double-top neckline at 52.95 earlier on at 2100h.
SoyOil is firmly bearish for the moment, though the rally on Dow has provide the bulls some respite, which is proven short-lived as price is again back below the neckline, as of now (@0032h).

FCPO is pending a breakout, with a downside bias on weak SoyOil & bearish momentum indicators signals.

FCPO - A Double-Inside Bars, Pending a Breakout, Bearish Bias. (Feb 05)
 
SoyOil - Firrnly Bearish, Double-top in Progress, Neckline broken (Feb 05)

Good Night!
Happy Hunting!! :)



Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Feb 04 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi all.

Today's post would be a little brief as I'm behind time for some other arrangements.
Sorry folks. ^_^///

I managed to squeeze in all my observations in the on-chart comments. Take note of them. :)

>>> 

On FKLI
Generally, I see FKLI getting even more bullish today with a close at 1,637.5 high.
Tomorrow might see some slight pullback before any further rise, which shall be firmer & faster now that it's more obvious the bulls are gaining an upper hand in the game.
Support @ 1,630-31 | 1625
Resistance @ 1,638-40 | 1,647.5

FKLI - Continue its Bullishness (Feb 04)
>>>

On FCPO

We have an Inside Bar at close today, which signals indecision/a pause to previous strong move. 
It might leads to either a reversal/continuation of current uptrend, depending on which side it breaks out to.
Given that momentum indicators are at their highs, a psychological resistance of 2,600 right overhead, plus a toppish SoyOil Hourly chart at 53.50cents; I favored a reversal.
Support @ 2,550-60 | 2,520 | 2,480-90 | 2,420-40.
Resistance @ 2,590-2,600 | 2,615-35 | 2,650
FCPO - Inside Bar, Reversal or Continuation?? (Feb 04)

That's all for today.
Happy Hunting!! :)

P/S: 
I had received comments that the charts look blur on the blog. For better viewing, just save the image & open outside the browser will help a little.
Hereon, I'll save those image on a higher resolution to give a clearer view. 
Thanks for the comments! :)

Monday, February 4, 2013

Jan 31 - FKLI & FCPO (Week 5 close)

Hi All.

Another 3-day weekend to bring an end to Jan'13 trading.
The coming week is a fresh start to Feb'13, 5-day trading, but I reckon trading volume will diminish as the week progresses, with CNY Day falling on the coming Sunday & next Monday (Feb 10&11).

>>>

On FKLI

The past week, Jan'13 Week 5, saw FKLI stabilized around 1,610-1,625 range.
Sentiment has also calm down following the plunge frenzy two weeks ago.

Daily candles has form several higher lows, which defines an uptrend, though this might be just a temporary retrace from the primary downtrend from 1,705 peak, for the moment.

Momentum indicators had improved to the bullish side over the week. MACDh continue to shorten to the upside, RSI stabilizing at 20-level, W%R tilted up with a higher low & broken above its previous downtrend line.

FKLI - Increasing Bullish sentiment (Jan 31)
On FKLI, Support remains at 1,615-25, while upside targets are at 1,635 & 1,647.

>>>

On DJI
 
On Friday (Feb 01), the US Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at 14,009.79, its first close above 14,000 mark since Oct'07, pre-crisis high.
The recent bull run has continued despite a lower than expected Jan'13 Payroll data at 157,000 & higher unemployment rate reading at 7.9%. Not to mentioned the earlier released dismal 4Q'12 US GDP reading of -0.1%, a first drop since last recession.
However, MSM generally relate the recent rally to an overall improvement in manufacturing, construction/housing data, & the latest rise in consumer sentiment to 73.8.

A long term fibo projection on the DJI gives further upside before hitting resistance around 14,340-500.

DJI - Potential new high at 14,300-500 (Feb 01)



We'll see if the bullishness on the US bourses can spill over to our KLCI & FKLI.


>>>

On FCPO

Price rose furiously on Thursday (Jan 31), started with a opening gap to 2,532, swift rise past each 10pt intervals from 2,550-90.
Price peaked at 2,593 in the afternoon, before succumbing to selling pressure & closed nearer to its open price at 2,555.

A Shooting Star candle was formed on the daily, signalling potential pullback to the beautiful rally from earlier 2,230 & 2,330 lows to the latest high of 2,593.

A little market crowd psychology on the Shooting Star pattern:
The shooting star signals a change in momentum from up to down with the bulls forcing price to a peak but the bears battling back so that price closes near where it opens. 
~ Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts ~

Note though, SoyOil has performed strongly on Friday (Feb 01), which might further support CPO price. 
I'll see an open above Jan31 shooting star close/high as a potential continuation of the rally without a  pullback, violating the candle pattern itself.

We'll see tomorrow.
FCPO - Temporary pullback on Shooting Star (Jan 31)

Alright then!
Happy Hunting!! :)



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