Sunday, October 13, 2013

Oct 07-11 - FKLI, Dow, FCPO, GOLD (Closing week2)

Hi All.

A quick one for this week's market summary.

A few days back, did up a quick analysis on DOW (as of Oct09 close), on how the US market fared under the current political gridlock on Debt Ceiling, & the on-going Government Shutdown.

Looks like Dow is threatening to weaken further as it breached through the mid-channel line of the long-term channel supporting its Sub-prime recovery rally.
I expected a quick test on 14,900-15,00 level, & it totally shot past this level with the massve 300+pts rally on Thursday (Oct10), & another 100+pts on Friday (Oct11), before US markets close for a -day weekend. Monday (Oct14) is Columbus Day.

Watch the long-term channel on DOW (Weekly@Oct 09, 2013)

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Compared to the massive plunge of near 1000pts on DOW on the shutdown & debt ceiling fear, FKLI only totaled about 40pts in its recent correctional move.

I'm tired of the lack of movement, basically nothing much to update on the technical outlook.
I'm keeping to my bearish bias, as long as FKLI stays below 1,800 mark, or below the line that connects all the recent peaks above 1,800 level, since May06.
Also, as long as there's no debt deal in US, the volatility will continue on the Dow, & should to a certain extent affects out FKLI, too, albeit most likely to a smaller scale of volatility.
FKLI - Price+Technical+Macroeconomics (Oct 11, 2013)

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CPO did a massive bounce, following my post/alert that it has been able to stand above 2,300 level throughout the Sept30-Oct04 trading week.

My immediate upside target was 2,390-2,400.
CPO hit 2,395 high on Friday & closed the week on a slightly weaker note at 2,380.

In the coming week, expect pullback for the nice bounce from 2,264 low to 2,395 high made this week.
Watch the now turned-support 2,330-2,340 band....
If it holds, we will have a chance to re-challenging the 2,400 mark.
If the test fails, brace for another visit to the lower channel (the 1-year sideways channel) region, & yet another potential test on the crucial 2,200 level, agaiinnn~~.

Let's hope the 2,330-2,340 support level holds then, then we might just have the slightest chance to move out of the 1-year massive sideways channel that's making each & every CPO trader trumping on their feet thus far.
If you are not one of us that's swearing & waning on the CPO market over the past year, i give u a thumb's up here!!  lolxxx~~~~~~~
FCPO - watch 2,330-2,340 level as pullback starts... (Oct 11, 2013)
 
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I'm too tied up with other stuff, no time for GOLD.
This is GOLD as of Oct04 close, last week. I was highlighting the crucial 1,280-1,300 support band.

That has been broken on Friday, due to a massive sell order done @8:42-8:43am US Eastern Time.

Ermm...brief trading halt, & the fact that the breach happened over a 1-minute window, on the chart, a breach is a breach.

Immediate support comes in at 1,260 region, which proves holding as of Friday's close.
We might get a bounce back to retest the 1,280-1,300 now turned-resistance level, just to prove that it's genuinely breached....Yup, that's how market works, really!!....lolx~...^_^''


GOLD - As of Oct11 close, breached 1,280-1,300 support. (chart as of Oct04 close)
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Of coz, the on-going Debt Ceiling Saga will have its impact on GOLD too.

I'm thinking we might have a brief relief rally if the ceiling is raised, or a deal is reached...
But, essentially, market will realize its not exactly a good thing to do, keep on raising the overhead ceiling & accommodate more & more debt >> I believe Moody's / Standard & Poor will agree with me, too.

I reckon US treasury yield may continue to rise on a debt ceiling raise...given that now investors are getting more & more doubtful of Uncle Sam's pocket size....which seems to be bottomless, or izzit??...hehehe... :p :p

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For the weekend viewing pleasure, I found a detailed, yet simple, explanatory video clip on "How the Economic Machine Works"...

Narrator explains while simple illustrations to represent the complex economic chains are used to give a basic understanding on the topic.

Fantastic work! Wish I watched this 2-3years back, when I was dwelling into the 'Economic world', reading boring text to get a grasp on what the ... is Economics...lolx~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

Enjoy the watch!! :)
Happy Hunting in the coming week! Enjoy the weekend! \(^_^)/

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