Saturday, October 5, 2013

Sept 30-Oct 04 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Oct'13 Week1)

Hi All.

Here's some comments for the first week of trading in October month.


It's really just been consolidating to the upside throughout the whole boorrrinnnggg week.
Initially, Im expecting an abc triangle correction, then continuing the fall since 1,803 latest peak.
But by Wednesday close, its obvious that the 4th small up-wave is developing. Readjusted my lines & saw a possible Bear Flag/Rising Wedge forming.
Some simple projection suggesting a possible break above the immediate 1,780 resistance shall my Bear Flag theory is right. Based on my analysis, I then planned for averaging a short somewhere around 1,782. 
And, I've gotten in at 1,782 on Friday afternoon. That leaves my average Short positions @ around 1,773-75 region.

I'm expecting the 'real deal' breakout to happen on the coming Monday, or the ensuing week.
I'm in desperate need of a solid confirmation to tell me if I'm right or wrong, as the Oct17 US debt ceiling deadline draws closer & volatility in the US market on a rise recently.
Also, I hope to clear off my Short positions by end-Oct. As Nov & Dec are seasonally bullish months on FKLI, in tandem with the year-end rally.

I've heard many comments against my bearish stance...Some say its an inverted H&S on the hourly, that 1,780 is the neckline & a breakout has occurred by Friday's close...etc.
I love this kinda conflict situation, because its a good training ground for my faith in my setups/analysis, also my trading psychology - ability to follow your plan in spite of thundering & distracting noises around you.
Well, I have my plan, which is based on the bear flag formation I observed. Shall my bear flag turned out to be wrong, I will exit my shorts according to my 'exit plan'. Period.

If there's anything I hope for, it will be a solid confirmation from FKLI in the coming week...Let's hope it doesn't continue consolidating!!~~~

FKLI - My Bear Flag theory hasn't fail me just yet... (Oct 04, 2013)


=On CPO=

CPO is on a silently-killing downward consolidation movement recently...which has lasted for 2weeks till end-Sept.
Early-Oct saw a slight glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel, as price successfully stand on the 2,300 mark, consecutively, over the last 5 trading days.

However, the Bulls' aren't all committed yet to bring price higher...
As of now, its a mere change from downward consolidation, to a flat range consolidation oscillating around the mid-range 2,300 level.

A quick examine on the daily chart confirms my previous comments on my page update...
And that, A convinced break above the 2,330-2,340 resistance band, also where the daily mid-band currently lies, will be the next mission for early Bulls to convince more fellow Bulls to join in the Long-party.... :-)

Me, myself, will be one of the more-conservative bulls who are waiting to jump into the party pool when price beats the mid-band resistance... ;-) ... hehehe*~*~

Near-term concern for CPO price will still be:
  • fluctuating USDMYR fx rate, due to QE Tapering uncertainties
  • seasonally lower export demand towards year-end due to cold weather in the Northern hemisphere (CPO solidifies in winter, rendered it unusable).
  • Inventory level usually starts to build-up towards year-end, into Mar-Apr of the following year.
Also, the coming Thursday, Oct 10, MPOB Sept'13 data due for release.

FCPO - Still weak unless break above 2,330-2,340 Resistance Band (Oct 04, 2013)



Had a fantastic Short that yields a $225 profit over a day's effort.
That's about all I can shout about for the whole week of trading...din touch much on FKLI, which was in total consolidation mode; CPO, too, not suggesting an obvious direction to trade...

Underlying technical outlook for GOLD hasn't changed much since I last updated on my page.
Overall, its still Bearish, ever since failing the back-test of 1,360-70 resistance post-FOMC spike. 

The uncertainties over the US govt shutdown, looming debt ceiling limit, has probably helped supporting GOLD price above the temporary floor of 1,280-1,300.
All news aside, shall the 1,280-1,300 support band failed in any event, we are looking at a re-challenge of previous major pivot low near 1,180-1,200 region.

Expect volatility to be on a rise though, given GOLD's safe-haven role amid such amount of economic uncertainties.
All in all, trade with eyes wide open!!~~ :p 

GOLD - Still in Bearish Mode: 1,280-1,300 temporary support (Oct 04, 2013)


If u haven't notice, the US government has been on a partial shutdown for 4days since Oct 01, 2013.

Here's the 6-Must-See Charts on how the shutdown has jolted market fear gauges, focusing on Bond, CDS, the VIX (volatility index) aka Fear Index, Gold & Dollar...

Live-streaming News Headlines on US Government Shutdown showdown:

The political wrestle between Democrats & Republican leaders on the Debt Ceiling:

& many more...just Google "US government shutdown"....


On another note, 

I might have mentioned this report somewhere in my older blog posts, but would like to highlight it again for newcomers. Those who have read it, read again, to reaffirm your current level & check back on your progress plan towards the next level! 

Here's the Kirk Report sharing on the "5 Steps to Becoming A Trader".

Enjoy your weekend read! Cheers!! :)

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