Thursday, December 27, 2012

FKLI - Bearish Engulfing, Failed 1,678 Level (Dec 27)

Hi all.

I was checking on today's closing & saw a BEARISH ENGULFING candle at close. Hence, did a quick analysis on FKLI.

Previously, on Dec 24, price touched an all-time high of 1,685.5, albeit closing lower at 1,676 on that day.
Yesterday (Dec 26), we managed a close at fresh high of 1,681.5, the first close above Oct'12 peak of 1,678.

However, today, selling pressure took over late afternoon, pushing price down to close near day's low of 1,675, a first close below the trendline supporting the extended Wave C rally.
A close in a dreaded Bearish Engulfing candle further amplified the bearishness in the afternoon.

FKLI - Bearish Engulfing signal end of Dec bullishness? (Dec 27)

I've been waiting long enough to SHORT this dragging rally top, today's candle just gave a reminder for me to start monitoring FKLI again, after being away from the market for over a week.

Anyway, I will be smart enough to avoid a SHORT before the year's close.
I will keep an eye on the price movement & take my position, if any, in the fresh contract month of Jan'13, instead.

Meanwhile, let's watch if the bearish engulfing candle gets a confirmation in the last two days of trading for the Year 2012.

Enjoy the year-end holiday!
Keep Hungry & we shall Hunt again in 2013!! :)


How Much Is Your Degree Worth ??

Hi all.

Just finished watching a video shared by a few friends, titled 'The College Conspiracy'.

I've grown up being a huge fan of Kiyosaki's skepticism on the saying:
"Study hard, Go to college, Get a good Degree, Find a good job, Live well ever after."
I've even resisted further studying after secondary school, but I was not strong enough to go against 'the common practice/culture' & my family's will.

Eventually, I went for a year of Malaysian Matriculation study, followed by 4 years of University life pursuing an Engineering Degree. All of which, I estimated had cost me roughly RM70k, not to mentioned the opportunity cost over the 5 years spent studying.

Last check, I'm making a living trading futures on the local market, with skills I acquired through 2-3 years of self-study, & slightly over RM15k of investment on various mind-setting, wealth & trading courses.
None of which has anything to do with my 4 years of Engineering studies.


After watching the video, 

I was thinking, if only I've skipped the 5 years of further studies after secondary school, & jump straight to where I started self-studying on trading matters.

I could have saved myself some RM70,000 of debt, & 2-3 years of time, 
with which I could have used to practice & sharpen my trading skills, & in turn make myself a successful trader, much more earlier in my life.

Anyway, I'm thankful that I managed to take the important step to detach myself from the 'common practice', into an uncommon territory called, OUTSIDE the COMFORT ZONE.
It is exactly this uncommon ground, I believe, that nurtures its more-than-average inhabitants to achieve exceptional success, all of which too 'outstanding' for the average crowd.

Which is why, 
I especially like this quote taken from the video (at 00:35:10):


There's still a huge gap between our education system & the ever-changing global economies, businesses & environment.
To lead a better life, I still think being a street smart is much more important than being the crème de la crème of a top university. 
I have seen many 4.0 graduates who can hardly live a proper life independently of their over-protective parents, not to mentioned contributing to the economy or society.


If you have a great job, you should watch this.
If you have a schooling child, you should watch this.
If you have an urge to be more than average, start re-educate yourself by watching this.

 

Well, I'm kinda good with enticing ad-phrases! LOL :D
A great food for thought for the long break before 2012 ends, with no apocalypse!.... :)


Last but not least, I'd like to take the chance to
Wish all of you & family,
a Merry X'mas, Great 2012, & Happy 2013 !! 




Friday, December 21, 2012

FKLI - Tweezer Top, Potential End to Wave C3 ?? (Dec 21)

Hi all.

Apparently, our world is not meant to end on Mayan Apocalypse of 21.12.2012, just yet.

Instead, today might be the end to the hyper-extended Wave C(3) on our FKLI.

This afternoon, news out of Washington that the GOP has shunned the vote on the tax bill, dubbed Plan B, proposed by Rep, Boehner. 
The fact that The House will only adjourned after Christmas sent world indices down sharply, realizing that there's only few days left for a deal to materialize in order to avoid the Cliff-fall.

>>>

On FKLI, price retreats today following regional decline. We closed at 1,665 this week, forming a  Tweezers Top (2-candle formation), signalling resistance at 1,674.5 level. 

Notice that price close in vicinity of the trendline supporting the magnificent run from 1,595 low (Dec 04) to the day's high of 1,674.5.
A decisive break below the trendline shall confirm the end of the current extended Wave C(3).
An important point to note is the sudden spike in volume today, to 3x its 5d-average. Volume spike signals that a trend is near its end, which usually is followed by a trend change.

My FKLI chart for the week's close:

FKLI - Tweezers Top at 1,674.5 (Dec 21)

If Short, I'll suggest shorting the Jan'13 contract, to avoid any funny spike on Dec 31 for a 'nice-looking' year's close on KLCI.


>>>


Here, I'd like to highlight a crucial info on Malaysian government conduct.

Few days ago, there's an article on The Edge Financial Daily, discussing on Malaysia's emergence as world's Top 3 for illicit capital outflow, just behind China & Mexico.


I went on some readings & did a chart on the amount of illicit capital outflow per Malaysia GDP value. The 2011 capital outflow estimated by GFI represents a whopping 1/3 of Malaysia GDP for that year.

Imagine, had our government has implement measures to curb the illegal siphoning of capital out of our country, we might well have put an end to our consecutive 14-years of national budget deficit years ago. 

The loose regulations & deliberate ignorance on the matter's seriousness, coupled with Malaysia's infamous corrupted business environment, is more than enough as a wake-up call for Malaysian citizens.
What I can say is we should vote wisely as informed citizens in the coming GE13.

MALAYSIA - Illicit Capital Outflow vs. GDP (2001-2010)

Enjoy the year-end festive season celebrations !! :)

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

FKLI - Where Exactly are We at ?? (Dec 18)

Hi all.

Had been away from market the past few days, got tied up with some personal matters.

From the previous peak of 1,657.5, looks like the bears can only take it to 1,645, the nearest support, before the bulls come back roaring today, pushing price up 17.5pts to close the day at the high of 1,664.

I have been mentioning repeatedly that the Wave C3 is becoming super-extended. It is still progressing, indeed.

I figure the wave counts might be a little too complex, for those who are not familiar with it. Not to mentioned I described it in words, & the fact that it keeps on extending into complex sub-waves.

So, I come out with a solution for that. 
As the old saying goes: 'A picture speaks a thousand words'....

I pull out an illustration of a typical 3rd wave extension, & place it side-by-side with my updated FKLI wave counts, for easy reference.

Here's what I got:
FKLI - 3rd Wave Extension of 3rd Wave Extension (Dec 18)

The wave extension illustration (image, LHS), shall represent the whole of rebound Wave C, from Dec 14 low of 1,595.
We have since went through its sub-wave (1) & (2).

Within the current extended sub-wave (3), the smaller 3rd wave is also extended, all the way to 1,657.5.
Due to the complexity of the extended wave (3), wave principle has it that the ensuing wave (5) will be simple & shall not see further extension.
Based on today's close, obvious resistance overhead will be at 1,667 | 1,670 | 1,677 (Nov peak). 
That shall mark potential end of current developing small wave (5), which is also the end of the higher degree sub-wave (3).

After which (refer: wave extension illustration)
We still have two more waves to unfold, Wave (4) & (5), completing the bigger rebound Wave C.

Which means we might actually get a new peak before the year's close ??

With the typical December window-dressing phenomenon, a new peak is highly possible, with just about 15pts away from the Nov peak of 1,678.

Nonetheless, this year we have potential party-spoiler, the US Fiscal Cliff.
Recent Cliff-sensitive US market fluctuates wildly to headlines coming out of either the GOP-, or the President's camp.

With <10 trading days away from the looming Dec 31 deadline,  I believe market will continue taking cue from the US budget talk progress. 

I'm guessing the two parties might well strike a deal, of small achievement, & employ the main stream media to orchestrate on that to calm the market down, for a Merry X'mas & Happy 2013.
When the X'mas & New Year 2013 fiesta is all over, US citizens will wake up & realize that all was but a lie.
With all the spending cuts in effect by then, automatic layoffs, especially in US military, will hit the employment data hard. Market will adjust to reflect the cruel reality, eventually.


Thursday, December 13, 2012

Thank you for your suggestions !! :)

Hi guys & girls.

I've been posting here since....??....I can't remember.

I did went disappear a while & came back fresh with daily or once every other day commentaries on FKLI, sometimes the economics, Elliott Waves, or on any other problems around the world.

I have been constantly changing the layout/style of my posting. Wanting to find the best framework to fit my 'arts'. Lol. :)

I'd be really appreciative of your comments/suggestions on how to improve my blog/postings. Getting the view from the readers' angle is the utmost important factor in my future improvements.

Feel free to drop me an email with your suggestions & the kind of info you'd like to see in my future postings. 
Kindly drop me a mail here: kongliubi@gmail.com
 
Many thanks in advance for the constructive comments! 
Thanks to those who already contacted me through various channels, even before I posted this. Your kind support & sharing deserve a BIG

THANK YOU !!  \(^o^)/


FKLI - Price Resisted by LT Mid-channel Line (Dec 13)

Hi All.

Finally.....We got a red candle at today's close on FKLI.

Today's candle mainly signal indecision of the bulls to push price further up, after making 7 consecutive UP-days. Price have since risen a whopping 62.5 points from 1,595-1,657.5.

The strong resistance came in at 1,650-60 level , the middle-line of the long-term channels supporting the rally from 1,310-1,677 since Sept'11.
Read more on the LT channel lines in my previous post on Nov 28, on the potential reversal signal while we were at the 1,590 bottom then.
 
Here on, we can either get a stall/pause to the superb price rally, before it continues higher to retest 1,660 level. 
Or, we might see the sellers taking the long-awaited jump into the party pool, & start shooting down the exhausted bulls.

All we need is a confirmation of a breakout to the up- or downside from tomorrow's price action.

If tomorrow sees a white candle, its a continuation, we might see further push to re--challenge the strong resistance level ahead, 1,660 | 1,670 | 1,677.

If tomorrow we get another red candle or indecisive signal, I bet the bears will not wait further to jump in & make a killing.
Subsequent support for the pullback will come in at 1,645 | 1,635 | 1,625 (W-bottom neckline).

>>>

Price find resistance at LT mid-channel 1,650-60 (Dec 13, 2012)
>>>

If we are going to get a new high before the year close, it will better pullback to retest the W-bottom neckline, building a solid base for price to jump higher.

Or else, a pullback below 1,615-25 level shall pronounce the bears' victory to reverse the trend back into the previous corrective mode during the Nov plunge.

Statistically, December month always favors the bulls.
However, this year we have the all mighty mr. Fiscal Cliff blocking the bulls' way to the finish line at Dec 31, 2012.

We shall see whether the statistics or the macroeconomics which prevails, with 18 days left to battle it out.

Happy Hunting!! :)

>>>

P/S:

To my dear readers, I would like to know how I can improve on my postings.
Feel free to drop me an email with your suggestions & the info you'd like to see in my future postings. Kindly drop your mail here: kongliubi@gmail.com
Many thanks in advance for the constructive comments! :)






Wednesday, December 12, 2012

FKLI Midday - Potential End to Extended Wave C(iii) (Dec 12)

Hi all.

Firstly, wish all have a truly memorable day on 12.12.12 !!  ....\(^o^)/....

In the past 3-4 days, FKLI have managed averagely >10pts climb a day, every day, to bring us past 3 significant fibo levels since start of this week. 
Last Friday (Dec 07), FKLI close the week at 1,615. Taking today's early morning spike to 1,657.5, we have climbed a total of 42.5 points over three trading days.
The bullishness is no doubt impressive, but it's way overdone without some decent pullback, the worrisome part of the strong rally.

The current Wave C(iii), extended to 1,630, extended again to 1,644.5, & triple-extended this morning to 1,657.5.
I'd really like to see some pullback from here, since we have a potential reversal pattern for today. 
A nice pullback will be crucial if the current rally is to continue, maybe to retest the previous peak of 1,677, or even, close the year with a new high on the index.

Or, we might be affected by the US market, if the Congress still is not able to come out with a solution soon enough, to avoid falling over the Fiscal Cliff.

So, it's still early to call this the end of the previous corrective donwtrend of 1,677-1,590, while it's also still early to call this a continuation of the long-term rally from 1,310 bottom since Sept'11.
We will have to wait & see, whether the year will close on a bullish or bearish note.

Here's my analysis at midday close.

FKLI - Potential Reversal Pattern to end Extended Wave C (iii) (Dec 12, midday)

Enjoy the once in a lifetime 12.12.12 !!!
Happy Hunting !! :)


Monday, December 10, 2012

FKLI - Double-bottom Breakout (Dec 10)

Hi all.

Post-market analysis @ Dec 10, 2012

Today's furious breakout from 1,625 totally caught me off-guard.
The triggered stops managed to push price all the way up to 1,634.5, about 9-10points from b/o point, where the 50% (of 1,677-1.590 downtrend) fibo retracement line lies. 
My buy stop is triggered at 1,630 for my short at 1,625, although I initially put a tight stop of 1,628, meant to avoid being caught in a breakout, which happened.

For the day's price movement, I was expecting the completion of double-bottom by retesting the previous high of 1,625, follow by some slight pullback, before a breakout take place. 
However, all this happens within just the first 2hours of trading.
The bullishness was evident as the vital 1,625 resistance is broken, without hesitation, and the bulls managed to close the day on a nigh note. 

A look on the daily:
FKLI - Retraced 50% of 1,677-1,590 Downtrend (Dec 10)
Now that we have confirm a double-bottom breakout, let's look at how we can trade it.

After a double- or W-bottom breakout, price will most likely pullback to retest the neckline (highlighted by the pink box, chart below). 
If the neckline provides support, it will be a low-risk entry to Long for further upside.
If price pullback way below the neckline, this signals a false breakout, we can expect further downside, as the bears managed to take control by pushing down the price, amid such a classic reversal pattern.

On the hourly, both RSI & William %R indicators are well above their respective overbought levels.
MACD histogram is tracing downwards, signalling weakness in the late-afternoon rise before closing bell.
Price have been moving in up-channels. The immediate resistance comes in near the channel top & previous significant high of 1,635-40. Immediate support at 1,628 | 25 | 18-20

I'm expecting a repetition of the Nov 28-29 price movement, with a long white candle followed by a doji/small-bodied candle. 
Price might open near or slightly above today's close, travel higher to a form a higher high, then close around today's closing price.
After that, we might well see a pullback to retest the W-bottom neckline area.

FKLI - Double-bottom Breakout (Dec 10)


Based on the double-bottom pattern characteristics, a successful breakout will give a price target of minimum 1,640-60 (about 61.8-78.6% fibo retracement), taking the height of the lows to the neckline, & project it at the breakout point of  1,615-25.

However, for FKLI, we are in a retracement of the previous downtrend. As mentioned earlier, Wave C end-target based on Fibo projection is 1,625, followed by 1,635. 
As of close of 1,633.5, we are already near the projected retracement peak.
Hence, we will have to exercise extra caution if we are to hold Long positions.

Alright!
Happy Hunting!! :)

Thursday, December 6, 2012

FKLI - Wave C3(iii) Completed (Dec 06)

My post-market analysis for today (Dec 06).

Wave 4C(iii) Completed at 1.621.5 (Dec 06, 2012)
Price uptrend resisted by bollinger mid-band & downtrend channel top at 1,621.5.
Price close in Bearish Star candle & tightening bollinger band shows potential pullback & consolidation ahead.
If price pullback, strong support will be seen at 1,602 level, subsequent support as commented on chart screenshot above.

Based on current development, I'll maintain my view on this downtrend retracement. As mentioned in my previous post on Dec 05-07 Outlook.
Expect Wave C to complete at about 1,625. If yes, we are looking at a W-bottom forming with neckline at 1,625. If current retracement Wave 4 is extended (for any reason, like it's the December month?), we will have to see a breakout from the double-bottom neckline.

Anyway, that should be next week's business.

I expect tomorrow will be another consolidation with downward bias, in boring tight range.
Unless you manage to short at 1,620 or above this morning, or else, it will be in the middle of no where now, neither a Short nor a Long.

Coming week shall see some real movement, as Friday night will see the first Non-farm Payroll figure under the re-elected President Obama.

Have a great weekend ahead!
Happy Hunting!! :)



Wednesday, December 5, 2012

FKLI - Wave 4c(iii) On-track (Midday Review)

A quick review on the market at lunch break.

Wave 4c(iii) in progress (Dec 05, 1300h)   





~ HOLD if - we are able to close high today to form a White Marubozu
                   - able to close above 1,611, confirming MACD crossover 
~ Multiple contracts can consider taking partial profit around 1,610-12.

I'm currently more bias to keeping positions overnight as I believe the bullishness will carry over to tomorrow's session.

However, beware of a relatively deep Wave 4c(iv) correction, either by today or tomorrow (Dec 05@06), as the previous c(ii) pullback was rather shallow.


Lunch!! :D

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

FKLI - Dec05-07 Outlook - Rebound Wave 4(c)

Hi All.

My post-market analysis for today (Dec 04).

Today, FKLI corrected to a low of 1,595, & subsequently rebounded to a high of 1,608.5, completing Wave 4(c)(i)-(ii).
* Ref: my previous post on Dec 03 Outlook.

FKLI - Rebound Wave 4(a)-(b) Completed (Dec 04)        
Congratulations to myself & those who managed to LONG @1,597, or lower this morning !! 
:D

Those who took profit around 1,607-08 should have secure a handsome 10pts day profit, to start off their profitable December month.

Those who are still holding LONG can consider TP at end of Wave 4(c)(iii) or (c)(v).
Those who missed the 1,595-97 bottom can still join the party at Wave 4(c)(iv) low.

Experienced traders might wanna TP @ Wave (c)(iii) & enter again at (c)(iv), benefiting from every gyration of the trend.

>>> 

As of today's close, we are halfway through Wave 4(c)(iii), which I believe shall end around 1,612-1,616. We might go higher if this minuette wave (iii) is extended.

I'll like to see more volume coming in to support the price, an MACD crossover shall do us enough favor to bring in more buyers. We are at the verge of a crossover, let's see if it will be done by tomorrow (Dec 05).

>>> 

Fibo projection from Wave 4(a)-(b) gives an end-target of 1,622.5 for Wave 4(c). Again, this will be subjected to whether the (c)(iii) or (c)(v) wave is extended. 

Fibo retracement on the daily, for the downtrend from 1,677-1590, shows Wave 4 rebound potentially dampened by resistance levels of 1,623.5 (38.2% retracement) | 1,634 (50%) | 1,644.5 (61.8%).

Hence, an extended Wave 4(c) might end at 1,634 or 1,644.5.

>>>

Nevertheless, do exercise caution as we are nearing the end of the current rebound from daily bottom of 1,590, based on my wave count.

Multiple contracts may take half off the table by 1,620-25 to secure profit, while letting the remaining profit runs if price keep climbing.

>>>

I also did an early analysis on potential price movement for Wave 4(c)(iii)-(v), which shall occupy another 2-3 trading days, depending on market enthusiasm. 
I shall update accordingly if anything funny happens along the way.

FKLI - December 05-07 Outlook (2012)

Till then!
Happy Hunting!! :)


Monday, December 3, 2012

FKLI - Today's Outlook (Dec 03)

Retracement Wave 1 & 2 (Dec 03, 2012)

I believe we may have completed the 1st wave for the current retracement from bottom of 1,590.
Wave 1 from 1,590-1,617.

Currently, we are seeing Wave 2 developing. Where the 5min chart shows Wave 2(a) & 2(b) might also have completed this morning.
Measured move of Wave 2(a) shows potential Wave 2(c) end target at 1,597-1,600.

Those holding LONG might consider taking profit first, & re-enter LONG at Wave (c) bottom. LONG from <1,600 might hold, consider adding to LONG at Wave (c) bottom.

Sideliners who missed the retracement, this is the beautiful level to enter LONG, as the retracement is confirmed, & we can get to harvest the longer Wave 3, riding through the statistically bullish December month.

Any LONG for this month shall take note not to hold into the last week, unless there's significant progress on the budget talk in US to avoid falling over the Fiscal Cliff.

Happy Hunting! :)




Wednesday, November 28, 2012

FKLI - Potential Reversal Signal (Nov 28)

Hi all.

In my previous post, I mentioned the reversal is near, & we shall wait for some candlestick reversal pattern to gives us the confirmation to ride the rebound.

After days of wash & rinse, finally, today we see a close in Bullish Engulfing candle. Indicators hooking up from oversold region & volume spike supported the bullishness of the day.

However, there's a risk of this being a part of a 3-candle-formation called the Bearish Three-line Strike. Although candlestick theory suggests it to be bearish continuation pattern, some experts back-test studies had show that it practically act more as a bullish reversal signal, instead.

Hence, the more defensive LONG can wait for a higher close tomorrow as a confirmation for the bullish reversal. A higher close tomorrow may gives us another bullish candlestick pattern called the Three Outside Up. That will be what I call a 'double-confirmation'... :D

The three patterns mentioned above:

Candlestick Patterns - Bullish Engulfing, Bearish Three-line Strike, & Three Outside Up (Nov28)

Technical analysis is a study based on historical data.
Assuming we find bottom at 1,590, the bull run, from 1,300 (Sept'11) to the recent peak of 1,678 (Oct'12), will still be valid. On FKLI, almost all correction in a primary uptrend had ended with either a hammer, or a bullish engulfing candle. 
I'm actually quite comfortable going long just based on the bullish engulfing candle today. 

That said, my wave count on FKLI, stating the potential end of a [5](5) primary wave, might still not be confirmed yet.  Not until we see a failed test of the previous peaks of: 1,650 | 1,660 | 1,678, & subsequent break below 1,590 level.

Here's a view from the 1,300 bottom to date:

Bull Run from 1,300-1,678 (Sept'11-Oct'12)


Given that December is almost always a bullish month, with its famous year-end rally, window-dressing, & with the GE still to come, I'm keeping a bullish stance on the FKLI in the coming month. 
Hence, I'll take today's close as the potential start of the bullishness to Dec'12.

If the reversal proves valid tomorrow, we will see a rebound of about 50points magnitude, based on the long-term channel supporting the 1-year bull run. End target at about 1,640-50.
However, I'm skeptical about a 1,700 peak by year-end, given the deep correction we just had. Even a retest of the 1,678 peak will be a surprise for me, seeing that there's only roughly 20+ trading days remaining. 

My near-term (Dec'12) outlook on FKLI:

FKLI - Dec'12 Outlook (Nov 28)




Embrace X'mas & New Year 2013 with some good profit in-hand! :)
Happy Hunting everyone!



Friday, November 23, 2012

FKLI - Reversal is Imminent (Nov 23)

Following my previous post on FKLI, we close the week without any strong reversal signal. 
So, 尽信书不如无书, those who trust the brokers' reports too much might be suffering right now. :p

Below are my charts as of today's close.

FKLI Nov'12 Spot Month Contract (Nov 23 close)
I was wondering why the volume is not contributing its part to signal the coming reversal on the FKLI spot month chart. 
I thought, since when Malaysian celebrates Thanksgiving so heavily that the volume become so pathetic on the index futures??

Then, it strikes me when I check on the Dec'12 contract chart, all the volume has been running to the Dec'12, apparently!! 
We can see climbing volume bars on the Dec'12 chart, with today's volume the highest (almost 2x its 5d average). That's much more promising than the bleak picture on the spot month chart.

However, I'll wait for the confirmation on Monday to make a LONG entry. 
No shame to double- or, triple-confirm, as this is a heck of a looooooong & most persistent downtrend I have ever seen on the FKLI, a whole string of REDs for three weeks.

I'll be looking for strong reversal pattern on Monday/Tuesday, something like a hammer, dragonfly doji, bullish engufling, morning star.....Any one of those will be most welcomed, together with a highest volume bar.

FKLI Dec'12 Contract (Nov 23 Close)

For those who are not familiar with candlestick patterns, I highly recommend this cute little site called BabyPips.com, where they explain the story behind each popular candlestick pattern/formation, so that you can quickly pick up the underlying meaning in each of them.

Do be diligent, & start following their babypips school lessons, all the way from PreSchool to Graduation!

Alrighty! Happy Hunting & be prepared for the most lucrative trading month of December!
Time for a Friday night movie!! ye@h!! :)

Monday, November 19, 2012

FKLI - Potential Retrace for Current Downtrend

Hi all.

Have seen many broker reports predicting a rebound for the local index today, Nov. 19.

Well, I do see potential for a rebound, but not as soon as many was expecting. Any potential upward correction for the current downtrend shall see:
  • my fibo target of 1,603 (or 1,600-1,610 region) is reached.
  • daily candle to cross-over & stay above the ST downtrend-line.
  • MACD histogram to turn green. Histogram length has been holding around -5 for a few trading days. Which mean the selling pressure is slowing down, & we shall see the buyers coming in soon.
Another point to note is, daily RSI is as low as 6.012 by closing today. That is the level where the previous extreme lows were recorded in May'10 & Aug'11 correction.


Below is my post-market analysis for the FKLI short-term outlook:


Enjoy! Happy Hunting!! :)

Saturday, November 17, 2012

FKLI - The BIG Picture (1998-2012)

Hi All.

It's been a while!! 

Since my last post, all the bazookas were launched:

Sept 6, 2012
ECB - Mario Draghi: ECB will engage in "unlimited" bond buying to maintain lower interest rates for troubled EU sovereigns.

Sept 13, 2012 
US Fed Reserve - Bernanke
  • The Fed plans to buy $40 billion of agency-backed mortgage securities (MBS) monthly, until the labor market improve substantially.
  • Extend Operation Twist through December '12. Fed will do reassessment in January when OT ends. (signaling a willingness to extend bond-buying well into next year, unless payroll numbers pick up significantly...)
  • The Fed also extended its interest-rate forecast, promising to keep interest rates between 0-0.25% through mid-2015. Before, the Fed had said rates would stay at rock-bottom until at least 2014.

On the local front, not exactly a bazooka, we got a few poppers, rather. 
Sept 28, 2012
Malaysia 2013 Budget:
  • Stronger growth - Government expects stronger economic growth of 4.5%-5.5% for 2013 compared with 4.5% - 5.0% for 2012, while at the same time cutting its budget deficit to 4.0% from 4.5% in 2012.

Budget Deficit as %GDP (2009-2013F)
  • Goodies to the Rakyat - Notable handouts are a 1% cut in income tax, which will give rise to tax savings of up to RM475, a RM250 cash handout under BR1M, a RM100/month raise for pensioners, and special incentives for military personnel worth RM200/month. Though meager, these should collectively boost disposable income & thus spur consumer consumption.

Despite all the desperate effort to revive the market confidence, the rally fueled by those various stimulus packages from US & EU was proven short-lived. All the major world indices are currently either back to square one, or worse, lower than where they were before the relief rally.

Back to FKLI....

By today's close at 1,620 (Nov 17), we have officially completed the round-the world tour from 1,618--1,678--1,620. We have now tumbled 60pts from the peak of 1,678 to 1,620, within 2-weeks time.

Based on fibo projection, I was expecting FKLI to reach 1,700-1750 previously, dragging near the high until we get our GE13 announcement. However, the current correction seems a little 2fast2furious for a healthy pullback.
I'm seeing an immediate support around 1,600-1,610 level. If the uptrend is to continue, we should rebound from the 1,600 region, in the last up wave of 5[5](5)v.

Well, that just send a shiver down my spine because we are either At/Near the END of a Impulse Cycle since recovering from the '97 Financial Crisis (2008 low at 270pts), growing more than 6x within 14 years.  
However, did our economy actually grow 6x through the years? Hmmmm......

>>>

According to Elliott wave principle, 
An Impulse Cycle of Wave 1-5 will be followed by a Correction Cycle A-B-C, where correction Wave C usually ends around the low of the impulse Wave 4.
A MARKET CYCLE, as described by the Elliott Wave Principle:
A Complete Market Cycle (Elliott Wave Principle)

I went on to do a wave count on 15-year FKLI chart.

I am not sure if the Primary [5] is completed at 1,678, or we will have another upleg to a new peak. I shall update it, by end of this month, when we shall know if the current correction is a [A](3)iv or [5](5)iv. In the mean time, I'll keep an eye on the support level of 1,600.

By the way, I just learn up the naming nomenclature for Elliott waves, hope I got it right or some of you can correct me if I'm wrong.

Here's my FKLI wave count:

FKLI - Wave Count (1998-2012)


Wherever we are at now, we are at/almost-at the END of a cycle, which shall be follow by an ABC correction, of which their projected depth I marked out with arrows in red

I have been waiting for this plunge since don't-know-when......I'm glad I'm born in such an era where I can get a BUST when I'm in my 20s.....because only in a BUST, there's opportunity to prosper from its recovery, which might last another 14years, or more.....
As for now, I'm preparing to profit from the plunge, accumulate my capital, & look for opportunities at the bottom. 
Believe me, anyone who can successfully catch this bottom can easily be the next Warren Buffett 20 years later.

Investors should have already taken their money off the table by now, I believe. This is a time to keep cash on hand. While for traders out there, it's our party time!!

Happy Hunting to everyone!
Till then! :)

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Manipulative KLCI (Aug 15)

How they manipulate the KLCI index (Aug 15, 2012)
The above snapshot should very well explain why I personally despise our local stock counters. I'm actually quite furious about this kind of FUNKY CLOSING(s) for KLCI.

TOTAL MANIPULATION !!

I haven't even show the charts on CYBERT, GPRO, E&O....etc. Their market capital can go doubled, then halves, all within a matter of a few weeks, if not days.

One friend commented on my previous post, saying that he dislikes Futures, & is now enjoying charting on good fundamental stocks in KLCI. 
Well, only by manipulating certain GOOD FUNDAMENTAL STOCKS, will our beloved index rocket up within the last miute of trading like that.

From what I observed & experienced, the ONE & ONLY ONE WAY to investing in our local stock market is to follow....

The WARREN BUFFET Way of Investing: 
Buy a good company with potential GROWTH PROSPECT, spare 10% of your monthly income to invest in it for the next 10-20 years
Investment objective: Beat inflation, Dividend income, Retirement fund

Other than that, there's hardly any chance for retailers like us, without any UNFAIR ADVANTAGE of getting FASTER & MORE 'ACCURATE' INFO, to make money from KLCI stocks.

For those faithful local stock investors out there, follow the Buffet style.
Otherwise, sorry for being blunt, but I really wish you all EXTRAORDINARY LUCK to profit from this manipulative market. 

Just a post to refute those noises that bothers me recently. 

Again, I'm not advocating everybody to jump into futures market, but we have to ACQUIRE MORE & MORE KNOWLEDGE...

Just so we can BE AWARE of / IDENTIFY 'funky happenings' in the market, & be able to give ourselves MORE OPTIONS to make a more INFORMED DECISIONS.

The same applies to all other decisions we made in life. This is an information age, know more, because:

KNOWLEDGE is MONEY!! ------ Robert Kiyosaki, Unfair Advantage

Only then, we can...

Hunt Happily!!
Enjoy!! :)

 

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

July'12 - Trading Income > Working Income

Hi All.

Haven't been posting for a while.....
Had been busy keeping up progress on my 2H'12 trading plan & also drafting out my future plan after I QUIT MY JOB.....

Yes....You read that correctly!!

I've officially thrown the letter on August 1, 2012 (I gotta remember this date!!), & is now anxious- plus cautiously counting down the last 2-months of my life working as an EMPLOYEE.....

This is going to be the most important MILESTONE in my life.....
Hereon, I'll bid farewell to working for a living.....& march towards a lifestyle that I've longed for, one as described in my favorite book on trading, 
TRADING - THE LAST FRONTIER
"You can be free. You can live and work anywhere in the world. You can be independent from routine and not answer to anybody"
                         ----- by Dr. Alexander Elder in his book, Trading For A Living
I do feel nervous, have some doubts & "??" in my head, weighing my decision & wonder if this is the right timing to make such a move....

Nonetheless, a friend's mantra which goes like this: 
" Don't keep thinking, START DOING !! "
.....also, I manage to pick up a quote from his blog:


Good friends keeps me motivated along the way when I sometimes get drifted away by emotional tides....Can't name you all one by one, but my gratitude to all your support!!

I sometimes wonder if I can make it.....But, keep wondering will only keep me wandering & marking time......Seriously,

You'll never know the result if you never T-R-Y/take action

If you take that action, at least there's a 50-50 chance of succeeding.

Of course, in our life, there will always be a bunch of people who stand with folded arms waiting for that fall-out (like in Taylor Swift's new single "EYES OPEN".... :p .... Anyway, I will not be focusing on them...

Leaving that behind, for the moment.....

I'd like to share some of my trades in July.

FIRST trade for the month, shared in my previous post, was a huge success as I managed to earn a profit as much as my current monthly salary, from a single CPO futures contract. And I was just a newbie doing my few trades with CPO at the time, testing out my charting techniques from FKLI in CPO.

After the awesome first trade, I carry on with my 2nd CPO trade, holding >3k profit on-hand, here's what happened:

FCPO - Profit-turn-Losses trade (July 18, 2012)

Haihhh......I guesses the chart said it all.....I see nicely another month of salary made within 2 days vaporized....taking away a small losses with it....HEART ACHE !! @_@;

After resting for a few days, calming down my mind, went into another profitable 3rd trade, which was quite a PRETTY + PERFECT trade for me....safe entry coupled with an almost-perfect exit....

FCPO - LONG on oversold after weak SGS data (July 25, 2012)

Together with a few more small gains in FKLI, July was indeed a very REWARDING month for me....both financially & spiritually....As this is the first of the six months of my 2H'12 trading plan....It's a joy & added boost to my confidence to really start my trading career coming Oct'12.

So, July kicks off my 2H'12 trading plan with a high note!......Excellente!! ...... ~* ^_^ *~

Will keep a neutral mind as I work through my trades for August.... Have been relaxing since both FKLI & FCPO was moving sideway throughout the first week of August. CPO has broken out of the sideway channel as of writing & I can go back in to trade again!   \(^o^)/ \(^o^)/ \(^o^)/


Hereon, I'll be quite tied up with my trading progress to pave the way for my "retirement" from employment....
Thanks for the support from my readers & I'll continue to share whenever I can.....
End Sept'12, I'll be free from the cage of employment & I could soar into the endless sky!


Looking forward to my next post on my coming SUCCESSESsss!!
Happy Hunting!! :)

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

What will u do if you're The Fed?

Found this on MarketWatch....Just a quick share before we hear from Bernanke later tonight.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-should-fed-do-see-charts-and-vote-2012-07-31#

It gives a quick view on the current economic state of US....
Take a look & cast ur vote! Then we shall gauge better if there will be any QE in the pipeline....

Enjoy! :)

Saturday, July 21, 2012

My Trading Journey - How & WHY I Trade?

Hi all.

Had a rough week since I last posted. Did a bad trade hence took some time off the market to clear my mind & reinforce my trading knowledge & psychology.
At times, over-analyzing a trade is tiring & confusing, the best thing to do will be to detach oneself from the market & charts.
Once back with a refresh & neutral mindset, market will still be there with its tons of $$ opportunity!

While I'm away from the market, have been receiving encouraging mails from my blog readers, from various backgrounds.
Many had been asking why & how did I left engineering field & took the trader's path/ became a stock dealer. Some would like to learn more about trading, to make that much needed extra income in this low pay-high living cost society.
Glad to know that many have been exposed to this lucrative business through my blog! :)

So, today will share a bit on my background, & how I've come about to be a trader. Hope that ordinary Tom, Dick, & Harry out there will be inspired by my trading journey.
Those who has the best interest to learn more about this business will find that any ordinary people can acquire this money making skill, provided that they have the determination & persistence to learn & practice.

So....
After my graduation...

I went to teach in Monash, School of Engineering......Work hour was flexible & light, a work week in Monash is almost like a 2-day work at my current job as a dealer. Plus, my pay was as lucrative as u CAN'T imagine a fresh degree grad can possibly get at his/her first job.

That was 2010 when everybody was into forex trading, all major markets were in a magnificent bull run after bottoming out from sub-prime plunge.

Being super-free, I started to look into FX trading which mainly focus on all kinds of macroeconomic news around the world & also, CHARTS.....
I dig into all kinds of free info online & offline about FX trading, online tutorial, online chart school, forum, FX books, free preview, paid course.....almost ANYTHING I can find in the market. I started trading on demo accounts on MT4 platform, foreign brokers from dunno-where.

Got to know a dealer from a local broker house dealer since my Uni years, I started to trade on stocks, instead of FX. Due to FX higher starting cost & troublesome account opening procedures.

For about 1.5 years, I trade stocks in & out, most of the time doing contra, using purely charts, while I tried very hard to understand those financial reports.....I basically match each & every figure to try to find out how the EPS or PER, etc was calculated & hence, what they really mean or represent.

I trade stocks using charting techniques meant for FX trading, just to find that I keep on win-lose-win-lose, & eventually back to square, or worse, had my account wiped off.

In the end, almost all my salary from Monash was donated to the market, or to the various trading course organizers.

Then I started to wonder whether there's something missing in my trading. I began to look for ways I can get myself into the financial industry itself, thinking that I will learn more being in the heart of the industry.
That is how I signed up for a prep course for the licensing exam which partners the industry players for job opportunities. That, together with a failed tuition center business, cost my very last portion of 'reserves' from my first job.

Finally....I got myself into one of the local Investment Banks, IBs, as a company dealer. I was so excited about this new job, I hardly even cared about the low-low-low salary I will get. I thought, well, I'm working for my passion, not for the money....
A new industry, opening the door to more knowledge from the 'inside'! That was my very initial feeling when I first started this job.

Then....

It dawned on me that I've probably OVER-IMAGINED the greatness of being in THE industry. I found to my shock that I can't really find the knowledge I'd like to learn from people working around me. I suddenly realize that MOST of them in dealing are WORKING FOR A LIVING.......

If you haven't get what I mean, they hardly have the heart to learn more about investing/trading, they work 9-5 & talk about 'hot tips' for speculative counters, they do marketing to rope in more clients.....Don't get me wrong, they didn't do anything wrong, but they are merely working for their rice bowl! I'm not saying they aren't good, but most of them are just ordinary people who will hardly give up a steady paycheck to become a trader with no 'JOB SECURITY"......

But to me, there's no such thing as a 'job security'..... I'll come back to this later .....

I know I might offend many people by saying that, but it suddenly snap on me that I'm a TRADER, & that's TOTALLY & COMPLETELY different from being a DEALER, I've just spent tons of money getting into a job that don't seem to help much in my trading!!
Last thing I know, I'm passing cheques for clients, & discussing the index movement with some them, while they ended up buying speculative counters! ... ... -_-///
I almost died crying the first few weeks at my new job.....

When it comes to charting, the most common practice is to ask the clients to look at MACD....
Buy when MACD cross-up, Sell on cross-down
I bet you have all heard that....But the statistic shows that if you follow that, PURELY that & nothing else, you will lose almost 70% of the time, & profit only 30% of the time, or even an '80lose-20win'!

I have to SOLEMNLY tell each one of you reading this article, THAT IS NOT CHARTING !!

Being ignorant enough to signed a 1-year contract, given the fact that my current employer did not ever spend a dime on training me, whatsoever, I was forced to stay with the company until the contract ends.

However bad was the decision, no doubt I found some comfort from my new circle of friends in the company.....After accepting the fact that I'll have to stay, I manage to look at this job from another angle & try to influence as many people as I can to learn more about this trading business....I enjoy helping those who are willing to help themselves. Being a salaried dealer is really an unfair position as you see a big chunk of your sales being reaped off by the Bank while you only get to keep a tiny portion of it, that is if you hit the sales target they assigned on you.

I am willing share as far as I could, as I probably had mentioned somewhere before........fresh grads at entry levels of various industries in our job market is barely surviving under tough environment with low pay & high living cost......That's why CONSCIOUS youngsters are ALWAYS in pursue of additional income sources....be it MLM, second job, overtime, or FX trading.
I, though still not an expert, do have some knowledge to share & I really enjoy helping people to achieve their financial goals....if they would really SERIOUSLY like to learn more about TRADING....especially COMMODITY/FUTURES trading...... That's why I started this blog, I would like to share, & at the same time ATTRACT like-minded friends to form a TRADING COMMUNITY, one complement another in this trading business.....LEARNING never ends.....

Coming back to JOB SECURITY.....

One of my colleague recently got promoted (up a step on the corporate ladder), after 4years of service in the company.....A rough guess is he probably got about 1k+ or a 30% increment, over the last four years......
As far as a can remember, a loaf of white bread was selling at 1.70 (4 years back), now they cost you 2.40/loaf. Let's take that as a benchmark to say there's about a 40% inflation in food prices.....I bet you can decide which one grow faster, the salary or the living cost??
.....there's NO security.....

One of my more senior colleague has been in the industry for 20years, earning 5-figure/month, can hardly forked out money for the family when there's an emergency need......& at last check, the bank does not cover family medical expenses, no matter how senior is your position.
......there's NO security.....

Anyway, to me, working for a corporation, & diligently climbing up the corporate ladder, does not guarantee any FINANCIAL SECURITY........
I'm not someone who will sit in the same office for 20 years, only to move from open cubicle to a private room.....I don't see how that's a SUCCESS? If you hardly have time for your loved ones, or could hardly provide for them when they have a need?

To me, SECURITY is knowing that I have the knowledge to make a living WITHOUT having to depend on a corporation, or a never-coming increment, or whether my boss liked me or not......& at the same time, I have time to provide for my loved ones/family/friends/society.......That's my SECURITY!
I know I will be able to provide for those I care for, faster & more realistically, through TRADING & other businesses, not by working for a corporation for 20 years or more.....

Anyway, I'm not advocating that each & everyone of you to fire your boss right away on Monday......I'm just presenting an option for those who are interested to find more security, psychologically & financially, from whatever I have to share in this business. Remember, this skill can be learned!

For those who will spend an extra effort to learn more, let's start you with some SHOCKER entrees:

Knowledge is money, below is some interesting facts about the world financial system which average malaysian hardly know/ don't give a darn about. Hope that they will open up ur eyes & your mind & gives you a new perspective about money:

Goldman Sachs control the world?
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-great-american-bubble-machine-20100405

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC19fEqR5bA&feature=player_detailpage

SUB-PRIME CRISIS - Why & How it happened?
INSIDE JOB -
http://www.imdb.com/video/imdb/vi751502873/

Last but not least,

A real full-time trader - what he does & how he do it?
www.conradalvinlim.com

A special thanks to Conrad, for his kind coaching, who has inspired me & many others to come into this business, that it's possible to make a living from trading....

I WILL be able to help more people like him in future.....:)

Have an UNFORGETTABLE weekend! Gracias! Will post more on my bad trade in my next post, learned a lot!



Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

Books for Traders

Google+ Followers

Followers