Tuesday, May 28, 2013

May 28 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi All.

Update for the week start on FKLI & FCPO.

Omitted GOLD & SoyOil update, cause US was closed yesterday for Memorial Day.

>>>

On FKLI


FKLI - Bounce of 1,755-60 Support band. Remain in sideway range of 1,756-1,787|96.5 (May 28)

I noticed FKLI has been 'livelier' than it used to be, ever since we came back from GE13, easily 8-10k or more in daily volume.
Pulled out the Open Interest to check, apparently OI has been staying high & has recently reach historical high levels post-GE13.
How high?....As high as it used to be BEFORE we plunge into sub-prime crisis in 2007-08.
High OI may mean anything, but a historical high OI level sure means "CAUTION !!"

Perhaps, those of you who have experience with OI, may wanna share with me your thoughts on this very high OI on FKLI.
Appreciate....:)

FKLI (Weekly) -1999-2013 - OI at historically high levels (May 28)
>>>

On FCPO

FCPO - Northern Doji; Breakout direction to dictate near-term move. (May 28)

Good night!
Happy Hunting!! :)



Saturday, May 25, 2013

May 24 - FKLI, FCPO, GOLD & NIKKEI Plunge (Closing Week4)

Hi All.

It's a long weekend with Wesak Day falling on Friday, also mark the start of mid-term school holidays.
I guess market gonna quiet down a little in the two weeks ahead due to the school holidays, also the sidelined cash rushed in following post-GE bullish LT resistance breakout on the KLCI/FKLI may have booked their first round of profit.

Remember the Kirk Report I recommended in my last post, on the 5 steps to becoming a trader?
At one stage, we will start drilling into the psychology behind the charts, market, & price movement. 
I guess I'm right at that stage, as I dig around looking for materials discussing trading psychology, even further extend my search to personal development reads on reprogramming our belief system or mindset.  

Speaking of which, I'm currently rereading this book on applying NLP to take control of our mind & thus designing our own destiny.
It's titled Master Your Mind, Design Your Destiny, written by renowned young Singaporean self-made millionaire, Adam Khoo.  
For those who wish to stop drifting with the flow, start taking/regaining control of their life, & in turn designing/moving towards their goals in life, this book can well be your Success Manual, if you let it be.

Take the chance to hunt for life-enriching reads during the weekend, do share with me if any of you came across any interesting books worth reading. :)

>>>

FKLI 
FKLI - Mid-week Reverse back to 1,755-60 Strong Support (May23)

FCPO
FCPO - Steadily climbed above 2,350-60 Resistance Band (May23)

NIKKEI
NIKKEI - Recording the May23 furious 7.3% Plunge After Near-Parabolic Climb (May23)

GOLD
GOLD - Double-bottom near 1,337-47, Apr15 Long Red low. (May 24)
 >>>

On another note, I'm recently planning to start working on one of my major goals in life, adding values to other people's lives by sharing my trading knowledge with them.

I always believe that, as we share our knowledge with others, we not only sharpen our skills & reinforce our own understandings on the topics, we will even grow & learn from our sharing experience.

Also, through my personal development experiences, there's a saying going like this: 
"You can only be successful when you truly believe in what you are doing, & that you add values to other people's lives"
I'm successful because I add values to other people's lives!! :)

Appreciate if you could help me start adding more values to more people's lives:

Thank you!!

Enjoy your weekend!
Happy Hunting in the coming week!! :)



Tuesday, May 21, 2013

May 21 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD

Hi All.


On FKLI
Rebound following the Southern Doji signal materialized, & quickly hit my target of 1,787 today.
No sign of weakness yet as of today's close. Hence, will watch for potential test of immediate resistance of 1,790-96.5 tomorrow.

FKLI - Rebound after Southern Doji, Hit 1,787 resistance (May 21)

>>>

On FCPO
Continued muted trading & again closed at 2,335 mark...for the third straight session.
Chart shows price resisted by a 3-mth downtrend channel. Expect market to decide on its direction soon after three consecutive small-bodied candles largely between 2,325-2,345 range.

FCPO -Stuck Between 2,325-2,345 range, Pending clear direction (May 21)

>>>

On GOLD
The week started on a strong note as price rebound from last week's sell off.
Found support near 1,340 level early Monday (May 20), rebounded strongly to 1,400 but had reversed from there.
Currently around 1,360-65 range, as of writing. Immediate support comes in at 1,360, then the strong 1,340, followed by Apr 16 low of 1,320.

GOLD - Temporary Supported by 1,340 Level (May 21)



Have a good night!
Happy Hunting!! :)

Sunday, May 19, 2013

May 17 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week3)

Hi All.

End-week3 post for FKLI, FCPO & GOLD, respectively.

FKLI - Southern Doji signal slight rebound ahead (May 17)

FCPO - V-shaped Week & Close High at Resistance Line of 2,336, Weak Momentum (May 17)

GOLD - Retraced 78.6% of 1,322-1,587 Climb (May 17)

 >>>

A good read for Sunday night, is this short report on shockingly true-to-heart journey every trader MUST go through before they become a true blue Professional Trader.


 A short read, with deep thoughts & feelings....Enjoy!! :)

Enjoy the Sunday night &
Happy Hunting for the coming week!! :)



Wednesday, May 15, 2013

May 15 - FKLI, FCPO & Gold

Hi All.

Since my post last Friday (May10), the following is observed:

On FKLI
- Bullish signal from Pin Bar on Friday bouncing off 1,760 support is validated by early week climb 
  on FKLI. 1,770-1,796.5 high recorded this morning, steep rise within 3days.
- Today saw a morning gap to 1,796.5 high, which quickly faded by mid-morning. Afternoon trading 
  saw price broke below yesterday's high of 1,789.5, rendered the morning gap as an Exhaustion 
  Gap, inviting sellers to push price down, which then forced buyers to liquidate their long positions.
- We may well see start of a down swing from here, as indicated by the Bearish Engulfing candle 
  formed on the daily, of which I reckoned should be WaveC of the retracement from May06 thrust 
  high of 1,834.5.
- Support should come in at 1,780 (hit today) | 1,770 | 1,755-60
  Resistance @ 1,785-90 | 1,795-1,800

FKLI - Exhaustion Gap at 1,796.5 & a close in Bearish Engulfing, Further Downside (May 15)

 >>>


On FCPO
- The 2,335 resistance continues to haunt buyers, even more so after Monday's false break to hit high
  of 2,341, before completely given in to sellers & saw price drop for three straight days to low of
  2,277 (today's low).
- Price has been respecting a ST downtrend line since dropping from 2,341 high, today's close at
  2,298 is exactly below that line. We shall see if tomorrow's price action will continue south along
  the downTL; or will it break above it & give the 2,325-2,335 resistance band another test.

FCPO - Failed 2,335 Resistance twice. Another potential test tomorrow to confirm near-term direction (May 15)

>>>

Gold's climb from 1,320 low has recently pivoted at 1,487, last seen trading around 1,395-1,400 region.
Price is officially retracing its climb from 1,320-1,487 currently. I marked a fibo retracement & is waiting to see if 1,385 (61.8% retracement) shall hold.
Recent rumors of potential earlier unwind of the Fed's QE4 program, on seemingly improving US economy, this has been putting more & more pressure on gold price. The strength in USD is also bearish to commodities priced in USD, including Gold.

GOLD - Retracing its 1,320-1,487 Climb (May15)



Sunday, May 12, 2013

May 06-10 - Post-GE13 FKLI, & FCPO

Hi All.

Finally, I'm back!!
My past two weeks had been hectic, travelling here n there, following the ceramahs by PR leaders, attending PACA trainings & later helped training other volunteers, contributed my part as CA for PR camp, & lastly had show my dissatisfaction on the GE13 result by joining the 508 assembly.
 
May05 night must be a heart-breaking one for those who have each contribute their part in hope for a change for our beloved country. It was initially promising when the unofficial results favors PR. However, we all know now how BN has at last turned out to be the winner, leaving conscious people in deep shock & disbelief.

Anyway, let's keep the politic part short as I believe many have been tired after a month of following the UBAH movement & news on the social media.
However, please do exercise caution when browsing through related news on fb, inevitably there will be some bad apples spreading falsified information in hope to attract the wrong kind of attention.

>>>

To the market, its always good news that incumbent party continue to rule, leaving less space for hiccups & uncertainties in financial & corporate activities.
We must be able to detach from the bitter citizen role, keeping a clear mind as an investor/trader to hunt for opportunities, as the market rally to the new-found strength after shrugging off GE uncertainties.

Sidelined investors hoarding cash may start to buy again following the massive post-GE spike on the local KLCI, leaving the index well-above its decade-old resistance, signalling another potential round of medium-to-long term bull market.

Nonetheless, the May06 thrust has to proof solid by holding above the 1,720-40 breakout support level, or at least above the 1,700 psychological level, for the potential of another long-term bull run to realized.
Further comments on-chart.

FKLI - >150pts thrust post-GE13, now above LT resistance. (May 06-10)


A clearer view on the May06 breakout above the decade-long resistance. Not that previous two breakouts from the same resistance line failed & reversed back down to become among the major crashes in FKLI history, the year 2000 internet bubble, followed by the 2008 sub-prime crisis.
Hence, reiterating the significance of 1,700 & 1,720-40 support band for the current breakout to remain valid.

FKLI (weekly) - Breached LT resistance, Sustainability to be confirmed (May 06-10)

>>>

CPO went on the opposite direction the past week, continuing its downtrend to again retest the 2,230 support, for the fourth time in the past seven months.
It then swiftly rebounded from the major support band, which has again proved its strength in supporting price, sent CPO price up to close the week at 2,320, comfortably above the 2,300 mark.

Price may have break above the MT downtrend line, respected by price since the fall started back in Feb from 2,592 high.
However, it has yet to overcome the 2,336 & 2,350-60 resistance levels, which I see as crucial levels which defines whether the current bounce remain a counter-rally in the dominant downtrend, or has it turned into a serious reversal given that the major support has proven solid after several successful tests.
I'm keeping to the counter-rally theory until I'm proven wrong. Still waiting for a lower low than 2,217 (previous significant low recorded on Dec 13) to complete the current downtrend from 2,592 latest peak.

On another note, end-April MPOB data was surprisingly bullish, recording a first end-stock below 2mil tonnes amid rising production & slowing demand (very questionable indeed....@_@'').
Anyway, May1-10 export estimates showing a 17% tumble m-o-m spoiled the party mood a little, as cautious bullish bets were observed where buyers refrained from pushing price up further beyond the 2,336 resistance, despite the very bullish inventory report.

FCPO - 4th Test on 2,230 holds, bounce off into counter-rally/a reversal? (May 06-10)

That's to update the past week's movement on FKLI & FCPO.
Rushing to a Mothers' Day dinner... :)
Wishing all mothers a very warm & touching Mothers' Day celebration!! <3<3



Friday, May 10, 2013

May 10 - MPOB End-April Inventory & Export Data

Malaysia’s April Palm Oil Exports 1.45 Mln Tons, Down 5.6% on Month

Malaysia’s April CPO Output 1.37 Mln Tons, up 3.1% on Month
Malaysia’s End-April Palm Oil Stocks 1.93 Mln Tons, Down 11% on Month

>>>

Malaysia’s End-April Palm Oil Inventories Slip to 10-Month Low -MPOB

End-March stocks was at 2.17mil tonnes.
This is the first time stock level goes below 2mil since early 2012, before the production peak & export drag throughout 2H12.  

Bullish crop data, but I will be skeptical about further price rise, as the May1-10 export estimates out wasn't as rosy as the end-April crop data.

Malaysia May 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Down 17% on Month -Intertek
Malaysia May 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 380,047 Tons -Intertek
  

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