Thursday, January 31, 2013

Flash - Jan 31 - FKLI may be forming another triangle

Hi All.

After got kicked out of trade several times for my FKLI day trades. I went back to reassess the short time frame chart.

On FKLI 5min

The overall setting is an ABC upward correction wave, & we are currently at Wave C.
I observed that price is moving sideway with slight upward bias, since we hit the low of 1,605 yesterday (Jan 30).

The price movement is getting more & more similar to the previous rebound from 1,601.5 low on Jan22 plunge, which eventually developed into Wave A & end at 1,639 high earlier.

A quick plot of S&R trendlines gave the following chart, a little messy...oops :p

FKLI 5min - Wave C unfolding into another a-b-c-d-e triangle? (Jan 31)

Well....this theory will solve the mystery of why I keep getting kick out of the game....-_-///
Happy Hunting!! :)


Jan 30 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi all.

Did saw the drop coming on the FKLI, just not as furious as seen this morning. Missed a post yesterday, so all is just on hindsight.

However, the price development today on FKLI did shed some lights on its whereabouts & its gonna-be in near future.

Previous recovery from the 2-day plunge low of 1,601.5, all the way slowly up to 1,639 high, that formed the first part of a rebound, Wave A.
Pivoting at 1,639, price then consolidate with a slight downward bias, before the eventual drop seen today to low of 1,610, that shall be Wave B.
The subsequent swift recovery, back above & closed at 1,625, will mark the start of Wave C

A fibo projection on Wave A-B, gives a Wave C target of at least 1,648, possibly 1,671.
Of course, that's quite a long shot from the close of 1,625 today.
On the way, price might see some obstacle at 1,630-40, previous support area, turned resistance.
Further up, some hindrance will come in at every 10pt intervals, namely, at fibo level of 1,648 | 1,660 | 1,670 levels.

Momentum indicators are still rather weak, hence we may see some pullback tomorrow before any rise. 
Do note that we are in for another 3-day weekend, which may dampen tomorrow's trading activity.
Caution also on the lurking election uncertainties which may well resurface after the bustling-with-noise CNY 2013.

FKLI - Potential ABC correction wave formation (Jan 30)

>>>

FCPO continue to rise steadily along the slope of an uptrend line.
Just past the 2,500 mark today, while manage to close above it at 2,510, near day high.

Momentum indicators are all stable & healthily bullish, volume is slightly below average, though.

The imminent resistance at 2,510-20 area (Dec'12 high) overhead shall requires more participation if it's to be overcame.
However, given that tomorrow may see light trading ahead of Jan'13 export data release, & also the coming 3-day weekend.

Anyway, if 2,510-20 level is pushed through, next resistance shall be at 2,550-60 levels, followed by the psychological level of 2,600 (Oct'12 high).
Support remains on the daily mid-band & the trendline as it extends further up.


FCPO - Continuing the steady rise, past 2,500 mark (Jan 30)

As of writing, SoyOil broke out of its correction channel at 52cents mark, currently trading at 52.3cents.
Breakout target is at 52.50cents, which is also an important & persistent resistance to SoyOil price movement. 

US SoyOil - Upside Channel/Flag breakout, Target 52.50cents (Jan 30)
**On the SoyOil chart commentary, I mentioned unfavorable weather condition in South America, it should be Latin America, instead.**

>>>

Note that at 1415EST (US eastern time), Fed FOMC committee meeting will close with a media announcement by Chairman, Bernanke.
Previous rife on a potential early end to QE3 on improved employment & economic data, may be announced during this media conference.
However, a surprising drop on 4Q12 US GDP to -0.1% from previous quarterly reading of 3.1% may well push the pause button on the winding down of QE3.

Anyway, I'm not going to wait till Bernanke deliver his speech. We will have the conclusion on the headline tomorrow, while overnight performance on DJI shall tell a lot on Wall Street's reaction towards the FOMC decision.

Good night!
Happy Hunting for last trading day of Jan'13 tomorrow!! :)



Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Jan 25 - FKLI & FCPO (Closing Week 4)

Hi all.
Hope you had a relaxing & enjoyable long weekend.

To wind up Week 4, Jan'13 trading, I did a medium term analysis on FKLI & US Soybean Oil.

On FKLI

The past week started with a shocking 58pts plunge on FKLI (Jan 21), from 1,682-1,624.5 within one trading day. 
The next day (Jan 22), see another furious fall to test 1,601.5 low, before finally saw the index got some support & managed to close the day higher at 1,620.
On Jan23 & Jan 25, technical rebound & probably some short-covering activities helped to bring price back up to around 1,630-35 region, recovered 38.2% of the overall 88pts plunge.

On the longer period, from Sept'11 till now, the overall upward price movement is seen supported by a 110pt up-channels.
The channels had been able to support the rally from Sept'11 low of 1,295 till current. Major corrections over the past 16months has reversed either at the mid-channel line, or the channel bottom.

For the Jan21 plunge, price plunge through the channel bottom upon Jan22 close, but quickly recover & stayed above the channel bottom line over the next two days, Jan 23 & 25.

Also on Jan23, price closed in a bullish engulfing candle, which was further confirmed by a higher close on Jan25. 
This may signal a temporary rebound from low of 1,601.5, although it may not constitute a reversal to the previous plunge just yet.

Price may rebound from here, but a close back above 1,678 will only fully nullify the bearish bias of the long red on Jan21.
Overhead resistance is the 1,634 level which price still unable to overcome after 3 consecutive tries. Next resistance shall come in at 1,645 & 1655-60 levels.

FKLI - Sept'11 to current. Price supported by up-channels (Jan 25)

On FCPO

On Friday(Jan 25), saw CPO open gapped down on weak SoyOil performance overnight. Price then continued down to close the day down to 2,445.
Profit-taking & squaring off positions before the 3-day weekend may have also contribute to the drop.

Despite the drop, the uptrend from 2,217 low (mid Dec'12), & higher low of 2,330 (11 Jan'13), still holds.
From 2,445, support may come in at 2,440 | 2,420 | 2,400, respectively.

FCPO - Slight pullback, overall uptrend still intact (Jan 25)

Overall bullish bias on US SoyOil price outlook shall support CPO price outlook for the short- to medium-term. Although the local record stockpile is still a pain in the xxx.
SoyOil price is fighting the resisitance at 52-52.50cents/lb, successful upside breakout shall see strong price rally, after almost 2years of channel consolidation, since price peaked at $60.41cents in Apr'11.
As of writing, SoyOil still is resisted by the 52cents level, we will have to see if it can overcome the strong resistance in the near term.

US SoyOil - Long term consolidation, 52-52.5 strong resistance to overcome (weekly, 2010-current)

Till then!
Happy Hunting!! :)



Thursday, January 24, 2013

Jan 23 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi All.

Wednesday saw both KLCI & FKLI rebounded to close the day on high note.

On FKLI

Price is trapped between two support levels of 1,616 & 1,634. Basically running sideways flat within 1630-32 range whole afternoon session.

Given the low momentum price movement throughout the day, I will take the bullish engufling candle by close with a pinch of salt. 
I'm more inclined to believe its some short covering & technical rebound rather than buyers eagerly finishing the bottom.

Two consecutive days of failing to breach the overhead resistance of 1,634 also indicates the bears are still in control of the game.
Besides, momentum indicators continue their weakness, while volume lacks big time, below its 5d average.

All in all, an up day with no essence of bullishness.

FKLI - Bullish engulfing, with little support from technicals. (Jan 23)

The overnight bullish close on US market saw major indices at their 5year high.
Good news from the U.S. House approval on a suspension of the debt ceiling until May 19 help lifted the DJI.
The suspension will allow the US government to continue to pay its bills and temporarily putting off a bigger fight over taxes and spending.
A two-month window will give the two parties more time to seek a long-term deal that has proven elusive.  

This may help lift our KLCI tomorrow, or not.

Anyway, let's see if volume shall pick up tomorrow & confirms the bullish engulfing candle with a higher close. Nonetheless, the long weekend ahead shall deter trading activities tomorrow.

>>>

On FCPO

CPO price continued its way up along the short-term uptrend line.

Did a healthy pullback to 2,450 in the morning, then zoomed back up to high of 2,484 right after the afternoon session opens. Price then settled at 2,479 with mild profit-taking to avoid holding positions over the exchange holiday on Jan24.
Volume is seen picking up over the past few days, which works out well for the upward price movement.

Overhead resistance still lies at 2,500-2,520 level, followed by 2,600 psychological level.
Support shall comes in at 2,470 | 2,440-50 level.

One major downside risk to watch
Today (Jan 24) saw SoyOil price dropping sharply, covered the gap on Jan22 at 51.70cents.
As of writing (Jan 24, 2045h), price has dropped below 51.70cents, with immediate support seen around 51.40cents.

When BMD CPO futures market closed yesterday, SoyOil was near its recent high of 52.65cents/lb. That works out to about 1cents difference from current price.
This drop does not augurs well on the CPO uptrend. We'll have to see if SoyOil will reverse its drop overnight, before CPO opens for Friday's trading.

FCPO - Continuing its nice little uptrend (Jan 23)
Enjoy the holiday!
Happy Hunting!! :)



Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Jan 22 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi all.

Another hectic opening with big swings on FKLI today.

Price staged a technical rebound after opening at 1,623, near previous close, zooming its way up before hitting resistance at 1,634.
The gains quickly vanished into thin air, with price free falling back to opening level, then furiously down to 1,601 low, together with gapping down underlying KLCI.
Support did came in at 1,610-15 region, as price then swiftly recover back above it & is well supported on it throughout the day, consolidating within 1,615-24.5 tight range.
Earlier low of 1,601 was simply caused by massive stops triggering, I believe.

One important point to note is that, yesterday's low of 1,624.5 was hindering the rebound from 1,601 throughout the whole session, without much challenge.
And the close at 1,621, below yesterday's low, further accentuates the weakness on FKLI.

I believe the bears are still in control for the moment, we still need to watch if the crucial 1,615 & psychological 1,600 support levels shall hold tomorrow.
If those levels breached, we are looking at serious reversal of previous rally from 1,590, rather than just a sharp correction to the Dec'12 steep rally.

The three coming public holidays, segmenting the remaining two trading weeks of Jan'13, might also have a slight bearish influence on the market.

FKLI - Wide swing at open, weak close (Jan 22)

*** Note: KLCI closed in a perfect dragonfly doji, though the whole candle was sadly underneath yesterday's low. (One significant risk I'll closely monitor for my shorts)


>>>

On FCPO

Price took a lift from gapping up SoyOil price, gapped higher at open & breached the 2,440 strong resistance in a breeze.

Bullish SoyOil price outlook, coupled with strong open & a higher high after breaching 2,440 level, all tells of the Bull's glorious victory from the past week tight tussle.

I'm totally thankful that market was pretty generous today, giving me ample time to adapt to the new-found bullishness on CPO, re-plan my trades, & still managed to board the train in time.  
LOL :D

The train then gave a good ride up, past another resistance at 2,470 gently, before closing near high at 2,466.
A perfect bullish day, indeed.

Crucial levels to watch ahead will be at 2,500-2,520 region, & the 2,600 previous high.

FCPO - Bulls' Glorious Return (Jan 22)

Till then!
H@pPy Hunt1ng !! :)



Jan 21 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi all.

Follow-up after market close for an exciting trading day on KLCI & FKLI.

Both indices closed low in heavily oversold condition.
I'll expect some sort of technical rebound, especially on FKLI (which closed at 11pts discount to cash market), before we see any further drop from here.

Crucial support lies on the next fibo level, which shall also define whether the previous rally form 1,590 low of late Nov'12 is still valid.

On FBMKLCI

FBMKLCI - Surprise 40pts Plunge, merely on parliament dissolution rumors (Jan 21)

For KLCI, watch for levels of 1,610-20 as crucial support for any chance of sustaining the rally from 1,590 low.

>>>

On FKLI

FKLI - Closed low @ 1,624.5, wide 11pts discount to underlying KLCI (Jan 21)

FKLI may have higher chances of seeing a technical rebound at tomorrow's open, given the 11pts discount to cash.

Crucial support to watch is around 1,615-25 region.

>>>

On FCPO

FCPO saw lackluster trading today as US markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr.'s Day.

Price moved in tight range, closed slightly higher at 2,420,but still staying below the daily BB mid-band.

My view is largely the same as on Friday (Jan 18).
Sticking with my slight bearish bias, as long as price stays below the mid-band.

Let's see if CPO brings some excitement tomorrow as in our FKLI & KLCI today.

FCPO - Tight range day, US market closed for MLK Jr.'s Day.

Till then!
Happy Hunting!! :)



Monday, January 21, 2013

Flash - Jan 21 - Index Plunge on Rumors of an Early Parliament Dissolution

Hi All.

Did a quick post on the magnificent plunge saw on our local benchmark FBMKLCI, & its derivatives FKLI.

There are rumors of an early parliament dissolution which I believe was taken seriously by investors & traders.
Regardless of the reliability of those hear-saying, focus on S&R on the chart to decide your trade entries/exits.

The underlying KLCI closed midday down about 40pts, which I consider about a typical plunge day range, based on historical data.
Price has puncture through 3 fibo levels of 1,675 | 1,660 | 1,645. Subsequent support level comes in at 1,630-35 & 1,615-20.

On the FKLI, price closed midday down 40.5pts at 1,642. Also broken through 3 fibo levels of 1,678 | 1,660 | 1,648.
Further support shall come in at 1,630-35, then 1,615-25.

FBMKLCI & FKLI - Plunges of Early Parliament Dissolution Risk (Jan 21)

Be cool. Let the chart tells you what to do on such a bizarre trading day.
Make as much profit as the market will allow you to.
Happy Hunting! :)


Sunday, January 20, 2013

Jan 18 - FKLI & FCPO (Week 3 close)

Hi all.

Friday saw FBMKLCI goes bearish, closing below its major support of 1,680. 
Next defense line shall be the 50-neutral RSI level, lower band & fibo level around 1,660-65.

FBMKLCI - Broken 1,680 Crucial Support, Below Mid-band (Jan 18)

>>>

On FKLI 

The down-channel is still intact, seeing Friday open at the channel top at 1,688 & subsequently spend the rest of the day in red
Although price still manege to hold above the 1,678 crucial support, it has fallen below the daily BB mid-band.

A firmer bearishness on the underlying KLCI shall add further strength to the bears on FKLI the coming week.
Hence, still maintain the sell on rally / channel top strategy, as long as price stays within the channel, which it still does, throughout the past week.

Support comes in at the crucial 1,678 & fibo level of 1,660-65.
There's room for downside on W%R, while the RSI will face its neutral 50-level, of which it has to hold to deterred further selling.

FKLI - Down-channels still intact. (Jan 18)

>>>

On FCPO

For the past week, price moved sideways within a rather quiet range of 2,330-2,440, & closed around midpoint of the range at 2,399 on Friday (Jan 18).

Start of the week saw price broken above the previous week's downtrend line, on lackluster participation though, followed by 2 days of narrow range ended in doji stars.
On Thursday (Jan 17), saw bears push price back down below the daily mid-band when the bulls failed to push past the 2,440 strong resistance. Price closed low at 2,378 for the day.
On Friday, short-covering (or so I would wanna believe...:p) managed to bring price up to the mid-band at 2,418, but the bears diligently brought it back down again, closing the day/week at 2,399, below mid-band.

I still think bearishness prevails, with lack of commitment on up-days (closed in dojis, low volume), while we see generally higher volume bars on down-days, together with the facts that bulls failed two crucial resistance test (2,440, 2,417).

On a medium term view, we are still pretty much within the sideway ranging pattern, moving largely within the 2,230-2,500 range. Price closed the week below the mid-band, making it more likely of traveling further down to find 2,230 support, rather than heading towards 2,500 resistance.


FCPO - Bears still strong (Jan 18)

We shall see how it goes hereon, with shortened trading on both week 4&5.
That shall close Jan'13 Week 3 trading.
 
>>>

For the weekend's viewing pleasure, I would like to recommend this video series of three titled "Million Dollar Traders".

UK top hedge fund manager, Lex Van Dam, thrown in £1mil GBP as capital, & hand-picked & trained 8 ordinary people into rookie traders, who will then help him manage his £1mil witht hey new-found knowledge. 

The video series recorded the rookie traders progress throughout the 2-month period they were given to help the fund profit.

For non-traders, this will give you some idea of the life of a full-time trader.
For traders, you will definitely find urself looking into a mirror, anyone can be u at any point of time int he video. It's just marvelous & you shall find some advice they get from the fund manager helpful.




Enjoy the weekend.
Happy Hunting!! :)

Friday, January 18, 2013

Jan 17 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi All.

On FKLI, price slowly crawl up towards the channel top in tight 4-5pts range throughout the trading session.
It then managed to close near day high at 1,684.5, recovered about half of yesterday's drop, & sitting right above the support of daily BB mid-band. 
This indicate that buyers are still enthused, while sellers aren't confident enough to go all out, yet.

On the short term, the downtrend channels still manage to house the price, gradually oscillating downwards. Any rally back to find the channel top will be a good short entry.

On a medium term view, the rally from 1,590, Nov'12 low, still holds. A stronger threat of further downside will only be come when the price violates the immediate support of 1,678.

FKLI - Traveling up to find channel top (Jan 17)

>>>

In a stark contrast, CPO gave fantastic moves today, to the downside, after three days of boredom in tight ranges.

As of yesterday, we were wondering if the downtrend is reversed, with a close right above daily BB mid-band yesterday (albeit in a doji)....
Today, the market made itself clear that it might prefer to go down further (~just when I need it the most~).
The indication is loud & clear enough, with an above-average daily volume, & the obvious fact that today's candle totally reversed previous two days' gapping-up movement, closed low at 2,378, below Jan15 low.

I'd like to see more follow-through tomorrow to confirm further that the downtrend from 2,500 high has indeed resumed.
However, bear in mind that it's a Friday tomorrow, & that traders might square off their positions ahead of the weekend.
I'll be cautiously bearish tomorrow.

FCPO - Bears are back! (Jan 17)

>>>

Here's a video shared by a friend, a trader himself.
"We are Traders" - A tribute to Traders round the world!



To Traders! :)


Thursday, January 17, 2013

Jan 16 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi All.

Today see FKLI broke its 1685-95 consolidation range, downside, to low of 1,674, before finding support on the mid-band & close above it at 1,678.5.

Volume start increasing to above 5d-average, show higher participation in the selling down. 
Hence, price may continue down further from here, look for a projected target of 1,665-70, for the moment.
Whether the correction can continue further will have to see if the mid-band can support the price for over next few days.
Violation of the mid-band at close will bring in further sellers, thus accelerating the drop.

FKLI - Breakout of Consolidation Range (Jan 16)

>>>

CPO did moved in an even tighter range today, & close in a perfect doji star.
Now that there's two doji stars in a row, we are all set up for a third star tomorrow, for a potential Tri-Star pattern.

Though we see price violated the downtrend line two days ago, there isn't much participation as volume is still below average, though risen a little today.

The Dojis represent indecision in the market, just like me having no idea which direction is the market going.
Being indecisive, I'll stay sidelined until the market gives me strong signal of a trend forming, whether a reversal or continuation.

FCPO - 2nd Doji Star Reflects Indecision (Jan 16)

Till Then!
Happy Hunting!! :)


Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Jan 15 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi All.

In the US, all eyes are on the US big banks earnings due to be out tonight, both before & after the bell.
A slew of economic data was out, mixed with a surprise climb in Dec retail sales; while Empire State Index, which measures US manufacturing activities continues to contract in Jan, for sixth straight month.


On FCPO

Yesterday night (Jan 14) saw a bullish USDA (US Dept. of Agriculture) report send corn, wheat, & soybean price soaring in overnight action.

That helped lifted SoyOil price, which had been moving in tight range of 49.50-50($US cents) for days, up about 1.20cents to high of 51.70cents in early Tuesday morning.
Which was a huge move, considering the normal day range of SoyOil futures is only about 0.5-0.7cents.

Thus, sent our CPO price gapping up at open today, slipped right out of the downtrend channels I mentioned in previous post.
However, volume wasn't entirely exciting yesterday, hence I will not consider the opening gap a change to the previous bearish sentiment.
true enough, price then move in boring tight range of 2,380-2,400, then closed at 2,397, near its opening price.

Tomorrow might be another tight range day for CPO, barring any gaps at the open.
Whether we will see the previous drop from 2,523 high continues or reverse from here, it will depends on which side the breakout from this tight range consolidation occurs.

I'm keeping my bearish stance, expecting a downside breakout to find 2,230 psychological support, completing the H&S pattern.
In fact, I did a preliminary wave count on CPO (as marked on chart), & expect price to indeed break below 2,230 major support, in a C5 down wave.
However, I have to say my experience with CPO is still shallow, I have no idea whether the price will drop while CPO tends to trend higher from Jan through April/May due to seasonally lower production yield.

Anyway, just to share my opinion here:

FCPO - Price above downtrend line, in tight range (Jan 15)

On FKLI

Price continue to waver between the boring 1,685-95 range.

Notice that price is just a few ticks away from the gradually plateauing BB mid-band. While the outer bands squeezing in further & flattening out too. 
With low participation from traders, consolidation may well continue for a while more.
Continue to monitor the momentum indicators which may signal end of consolidation, by reaching their respective buy levels, while price tries to find support on the mid-band.

Nothing much to add, until we see more solid volume coming in.


FKLI - Sideway Consolidation (Jan 15)

Till then!
Happy Hunting!! :)



Monday, January 14, 2013

Jan 11 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi All.

On Friday morning (US Eastern time), the government reported disappointing results that showed a sharply wider U.S. trade deficit in November. 

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. trade deficit widened in November to the highest point since April. The trade gap widened 15.8% to $48.7 billion in November.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $41.3 billion in November from a prior October estimate of $42.2 billion.
This add to the disappointment earlier on Thursday thart saw the weekly jobless claim came in higher than estimated at 371,000.

>>>

On the local front, both FKLI & FCPO ended the week on a weak note. 
Further downside shall be observed in the coming week for both, more so with the cue from weak US economic data.


On FKLI

Price is seen finally violated the uptrend line that has supported the awesome Dec'12 year-end rally from 1,590 low.

On the daily, 
BB is closing in, with mid-band flattening, showing more consolidation/correction ahead.
MACD finally had a death-cross.
RSI retreated from overbought level, while W%R has dropped below its respective support level, too.

Hence, expect some short-term correction while the overall trend is still bullish as long as correction do not extend below 1,600pts.

FKLI - Trendline from 1,590 low violated (Jan 11)

On FCPO

Price continue down but see some rebound from short-covering before Friday's closing bell.

On the hourly, we can see price oscillating within a 70-80pts channels.
On a downtrend, the simple strategy of selling the rally, back to the BB mid-band or mid-channel line, will be able to return nice profits.

I'll be cautious when price reach 2,300 region, for any potential sign to a rebound. 
Any break below 2,300 will see sharp & furious drop, or maybe gaps, to find the major support level of 2,220-30. This level has been tested three times, over the past three months of Oct-Dec'12, & is proven strong to overcome.
I have a hunch that this drop is THE one that will send us down below the support at 2,220. However, this is just purely instinctual, believe it or not!


FCPO - Price Fall within Channels (Jan 11)

That will close Jan'13 - Trading Week 2.
Happy Hunting!! :)
 


Thursday, January 10, 2013

Jan 10 - Post-market Analysis

Hi All.

Both FKLI & FCPO traded with downward bias today (Jan 10).


On FKLI

Price moved in downward consolidation throughout the day, closed near the low at 1,689.5.
The Trendline? Yup. We are STILL on the trendline, albeit the slight correction in price.

Based on the hourly movement, we can see price has broken down from its uptrend channel.
It then failed to venture back into the channel, & thus breaking down into today's correction.

Obvious MACD bearish divergence signals further downside from latest low of 1,681 (Jan 08).
Watch for hourly support at 1,680-85 | 1,675-77 (previous peak) | 1,660-65.
Where 1,660-65 is a measured target if price break below 1,680, the neckline for the not-so-pretty double-top/H&S pattern, seen on the hourly chart.

FKLI - Recent Top @ 1,700 Confirmed (Jan 10)
  
On FCPO

We got that right-shoulder to 2,433 in the morning.

Export data came in at 1200h sucks as expected, price reversed course & turned all bearish.
MPOB Inventory data add to the bearishness when the official government report shows Malaysian palm oil stockpile hit a record high of 2.63mil tonnes. 
Industry consensus was that inventory level eased to 2.51mil as the seasonal high production period ends around Oct-Nov months.

CPO price gapped down RM30/tonne when afternoon session opens, hit low of 2,356 on triggered stops, then slowly recovered to close at 2,383.

We have now a confirmed H&S pattern, with the forming of right-shoulder completed.
Price will see further drop from here. 
Trades should sell on rally & watch for major support coming in at 2,300-30 & the neckline region of 2,210-30.

FCPO - Right-shoulder Completed, Watching for Neckline (Jan 10)
Enjoy the ride down!!
This shall make January a month of some handsome profit!! :D

Happy Hunting !! 

FKLI & FCPO (Jan 09)

Hi All.

Did a quick late night analysis on FKLI & FCPO.

On FKLI, not much of changes since my posting yesterday.
We see another failed test of 1,700, 3rd time in the past few trading days, which is nothing but bearish for the rally.


FKLI - Forming a small double-top at 1,700 peak (Jan 09)


Given the boring state of FKLI, I was hunting in FCPO instead.

FCPO indeed offered some great shorts these few days, with a small double-top completed around the peak of 2,500.

Today, price rebounded from 2,380 low & ended on a high of 2,413. There's a smell of slight bullishness, traders might be covering their shorts ahead of the MPOB Dec'12 crop data, due out tomorrow (Jan 10).

On the technical front, I'm seeing a H&S forming on FCPO 60m chart. 
Let's see if we are in the progress of forming the RHS-shoulder of the pattern.
So far, the indicators are supporting my right shoulder theory, with MACD & RSI both diverge from the bullish price movement.

We will see when price reach 2,440-50 region, to confirm the indicators bearish divergence.
If we do have a H&S, it will be quite a drop, with major support only coming in at 2,300 & 2,230, namely.


FCPO - Head & Shoulder (Jan 09)

Good night!
Happy Hunting !! :)

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

FKLI - Hovering Near Top of 1,700 (Jan 08)

Hi all.

...... Happy 2013 !! ...... :)

Had been enjoying my year-end + year-start holiday, traveling back to my hometown in Malacca, followed by my bf's hometown in Sungai Petani.
It's my annual refreshing countryside getaway, away from the concrete jungle of KL & away from my laptop screen. 
As a local Malaccan, I forgot to snap the chicken rice ball pic....:p
Anyway, did had a few shots here & there to share.



>>>

Now, let's get back to business, in the brand new year of 2013....

First major global event for 2013 will definitely be the Fiscal Cliff deal reached at the wee-hour before US starts their first trading day for the year.

Despite the celebration worldwide, with major global indices marching towards/breaking new highs....The deal was nothing but a quick fix to avoid automatic tax rise for middle-class American families.
There was no specific address to spending cuts, only a mere delay of the issue for 2-months time. 
In fact, US has actually officially reached their elevated debt ceiling of $14.6Trillion on Jan 1, 2013. The US Treasury has to take extreme measures to technically avoid a default, by reducing government investment in certain funds, just to be able to sustain national expenses up to March.

While the year-start rally gradually cools down now, there are a few risk factors we need to be monitoring closely for 1Q13.
  1. Corporate America earnings for 4Q12, starting today (Jan 08), which shall also give some taste of overall corporate performance for CY12.
  2. CNY rally -- end-Jan to early Feb'13.
  3. US debt ceiling alarm which should start sounding around mid-Feb, coupled with anxiety over another round of political wrestling in Washington.
  4. Early Mar'13 shall see our own market drifting over uncertainties from the looming GE13.
>>> 

Decembers are indeed magnificently bullish months for the local market.
Back in Nov'12, we were at all bearish, seeing a plunge of more than 80pts from all time high of 1,678 to below the 1,600 psychological level.

Our FBMKLCI ended the year 2012 at an all-time high of 1,688.95, while the FKLI lagged with a 10pts discount behind, closing at 1,677 (Oct'12 high).

After the Dec window-dressing rally, all momentum indicators are now hanging over their respective overbought zone. In fact, some already show overbought signals way back in mid-Dec.

Nevertheless, both KLCI & its futures continue to rally into Jan'13, KLCI to a high of 1,700, while FKLI touched a high of 1,705 just a few days back.

Despite the overcooked rally, with some momentum indicators now violating their own uptrend lines, there is still no reliable signs of a reversal, yet, on the price movement.
Both the indices are still comfortably above the up-TL since bottom of 1,590.
However, at all-time highs, uncharted territory, big round numbers tend to act as psychological resistance. Both index touched 1,700 but did not managed to hold above it.

On FKLI, Fibo projection from bottom of 1,590 shows a strong resistance at around 1,710 region. The bollinger bands are also seen closing in, we might well see slight consolidation ahead to find support at mid-band (currently around 1,677).
All in all, FKLI is generally still in a bullish mode, albeit it will find increasing difficulty to climb higher, with the bulls all exhausted supporting the highs.

My post-market analysis on FKLI (Jan 08)

FKLI - Still at top of 1,690-1,700 (Jan 08)
On the chart, I highlighted the possibility of a reminiscence of price movement when we were breaking to new high of 1,677 in Oct'12. 
Hence, price is likely to continue up slowly along the TL, regain 1,700 & go slightly higher (which may well be to the fibo level of 1,710), before breaking its all-supportive TL since 1,590 low.

Given the lack of decent correction along the way up, any future reversal will be a furious one & we shall be well-prepared to ride the wave down, soon.

>>>

Below is a quick share from Conrad's FB post, on what Fiscal Cliff & Debt Ceiling is all about....
LOL :)



Happy Hunting !! :)


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