Thursday, January 10, 2013

Jan 10 - Post-market Analysis

Hi All.

Both FKLI & FCPO traded with downward bias today (Jan 10).


Price moved in downward consolidation throughout the day, closed near the low at 1,689.5.
The Trendline? Yup. We are STILL on the trendline, albeit the slight correction in price.

Based on the hourly movement, we can see price has broken down from its uptrend channel.
It then failed to venture back into the channel, & thus breaking down into today's correction.

Obvious MACD bearish divergence signals further downside from latest low of 1,681 (Jan 08).
Watch for hourly support at 1,680-85 | 1,675-77 (previous peak) | 1,660-65.
Where 1,660-65 is a measured target if price break below 1,680, the neckline for the not-so-pretty double-top/H&S pattern, seen on the hourly chart.

FKLI - Recent Top @ 1,700 Confirmed (Jan 10)

We got that right-shoulder to 2,433 in the morning.

Export data came in at 1200h sucks as expected, price reversed course & turned all bearish.
MPOB Inventory data add to the bearishness when the official government report shows Malaysian palm oil stockpile hit a record high of 2.63mil tonnes. 
Industry consensus was that inventory level eased to 2.51mil as the seasonal high production period ends around Oct-Nov months.

CPO price gapped down RM30/tonne when afternoon session opens, hit low of 2,356 on triggered stops, then slowly recovered to close at 2,383.

We have now a confirmed H&S pattern, with the forming of right-shoulder completed.
Price will see further drop from here. 
Trades should sell on rally & watch for major support coming in at 2,300-30 & the neckline region of 2,210-30.

FCPO - Right-shoulder Completed, Watching for Neckline (Jan 10)
Enjoy the ride down!!
This shall make January a month of some handsome profit!! :D

Happy Hunting !! 

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