Wednesday, January 11, 2012

SUPERMX - There goes the "Trigger"

SUPERMAX - Poised for a rally back to its 2010 highs

  • Strong fundamental & financial, unique product mix
  • Anticipated Strong USD (translating into stronger sales figures)
  • Latex & rubber prices trending downwards
  • Possible H5N1 epidemic breakout

All in all, now that the price finally broken out of the RM4.00 resistance (now turn STRONG support), we are well ready for a rally all the way up to RM5.50, or higher, to match its previous high in the year of 2010.

Happy Hunting!!!

Monday, January 9, 2012

HARVEST - Symmetrical Triangle Breakout

Technically bullish but buyers must BEWARE of any funky developments coming up including price push-up followed straight by "carefully-timed"corporate announcements that caused the buyers chasing the stock to be stuck in their trades due to trading halts. 

Be extra cautious when any signs of the following sequence emerge:
"price surge -- corp announcement -- trading halt -- limit down -- bloodbath"
Until then, Let's make some quick angpau money on the counter before the heat got too high & burn everybody's finger!

Thursday, January 5, 2012

JCY - defying gravity

This is the hottest counter in town! 

JCY has been bottoming out from its all-time low of RM0.41 since October last year & since then has rise all the way to yesterday's close of RM1.18. As of writing, its currently trading at RM1.25, after report on group management expressed optimism of a better-than-consensus earnings for the quarter ended Dec 30, 2011. CIMB research house ups its target price for JCY to RM1.54, in TheEdge.

My take is if the counter can close above RM1.20 today (Jan 5), it will have a high potential to continue the rocket-up trend to find higher resistance level of RM1.30-1.40; with RM1.40 being the 61.8 retracement level of its previous 1.5year (May'10-Sept'11) downtrend. However, the recent surge in price has rendered the counter in overbought region since mid Dec'11. Hence, retracement from its current high is highly expected before any further upside can be seen. A retracement down to immediate support level of RM1.03-1.10 is considered reasonable. While breaking below RM1.00 shall invalidate the aforementioned further upside & the counter shall see further consolidation to the downside in near future.

Happy Hunting! ^_^

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

KLCI 1H12 Outlook

KLCI near-term outlook

Trading 2012

A late window-dressing was seen pushing the KLCI up to close at 1,530.73 points on Dec 30, the last trading day of 2011, with blue chips counters given a strong push during the pre-closing session. KLCI opened at 1518.91 points for 2011, which gives us a mere 0.78% gain for the year at the close of 1530.73 points on Dec 30. However, this can be considered a surprisingly good performance given the gloomy & volatile macroeconomic environment throughout last year, with the historical US credit rating downgrade to AA+ status, the ongoing turbulence in the EU debt crisis issues, & political unrest erupted in a number of western & Saudi-Arabian countries.

Going into the year of 2012, general consensus from local analysts is that the index will generally be trading within the range of 1,300-1,500 points, with limited investment choices but shall see some trading opportunities on cyclical sectors.

Trading risk in 2012
  • Possible delay of the 13th General Election, or if it does takes place, possibly a political tsunami as seen in the 12th GE, March 08, 2008.
  • Non-return of foreign shareholdings, which currently is at about 21.5% (Aug'11) compared to a peak of 28% in 2Q07.
  • Ongoing EU debt crisis remain unresolved.
  • US false recovery (simply a temporary boost from the year-end festive seasons).

Shall any of the aforementioned problems be resolved/factors turn out otherwise, it will surely present trading&buying opportunities in the market. 

We shall see if the Year of Dragon according to the Lunar Calendar will bring us luck & prosperity as normally perceived by the Chinese community.

Happy 2012!  

A simple illustration on how to trade in the year of 2012

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