Thursday, September 26, 2013

September 26 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD

Hi All. 

It's been a while since I last posted here on the blog.
I've received emails from a few readers who are not readily connected to Facebook, & won't be so in near future (@_@??)...

I've got to say sorry! I can't re-post every update on the FB Page here...As that will defeat my purpose of transferring to an FB Page, which is suppose to support quick updates/comments, especially when I'm on-the-go, & also enable more communications & easier notifications for my new posts.

I strongly suggest getting a Facebook account! FB has an online community so vast, its users, if considered a nation, can ranked 3rd largest on Earth, behind China & India.
So, why not join the community? It's like a free passport to the global village of FB! :)

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That said, here's a quick peep on my latest post on the Page...lolx!

Short comments - After Market Close.

Missed my usual end-week blog post, as I went on a short holiday & took time to go back home for Mid-Autumn Day! ~ ~
No worries, this week it will be back on as usual!

Special Note: 
US Debt Ceiling negotiations is going to continue over the weekend, with a decision to be made to avert US govt shutdown by Monday midnight (US Eastern Time).
I'm planning to square off most of my positions on-hand by midday tomorrow.
Might leave a few FKLI shorts to run, but I shall cover my axx with some light hedge against any unpleasant surprises from Capitol Hill over the weekend.

In the mean time,
Happy Hunting!! ^_^


Saturday, September 14, 2013

September 09-13 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week2)

Hi All.

It's a 3-day weekend!! ye@h!!!
Most of the 'tumpang' KL-ians are back to their hometown, probably, as my routine movie frenzy yesterday night went all smooth, didn't have to stand in long queue to get a tix like during a usual Friday movie night rush...
Today's brunch with friends also saw pretty empty streets or eat-out spots, light traffic on the road, while the usually all-lines-up DimSum shop in Puchong Jaya also have ready empty tables! 
Loitering around the city on such a long weekend makes the city skyline looks ever more charming! lolx! :D
Next week, it's my turn to go back home for the grand festival of Mid-Autumn 2013!!... :) :D
ye@h!! ~ ~ B@lik k@mpUng!!~ ~

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Back to business...

It's been a pretty busy, yet rewarding trading week for me, on the Trios...
Had been frequently updating the week's positions, be it entry plans, exits executed, or middle-of-trade anxieties!...lol ^_^''

Coming week will on an 'all-eyes-on-FOMC-Meeting' mode as the event takes place over Sept17&18, whereas Mr Ben shall face the press on Sept18@1430hr (US Eastern Time)...
Whatever u are trading on, these dates & time are to be remembered & put on ur reminders/alerts!!

Worldwide, general Economists consensus are that the Fed shall announce some extent of QE Tapering, as a result of the meeting.
Looking from the recently recovering-from-lows major indices worldwide, yes, signs of a counter-rally tops are emerging all over the world...not excluding our dear FKLI, too!!
That pretty much set the scene for further fall on equities markets on the potential tapering.

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On FKLI

As usual, price continue to hang high in the air, although its obvious that the buying volume sucks to the max, marketmakers really love to manipulate retail traders near Tops/Bottoms...
These are part & parcel of the trading game, play smart, & you'll be able to ride along the Big Boys...
Try to be smart?...Congratulations! You just got yourself a place into a Super-Heavy-Weight vs. Ultra-Light-Weight wrestling ring.
Learn to be humble, & ride along with the Big Guys...that's the way it is in Trading! ... :)

I'm still lack of 2 confirmation signals on my Counter-Rally-Top-Identifying Checklist --
(1) Price falls below short-term uptrend line (L1 on chart) supporting rally from 1,653 major pivot low.
(2) MACD histograms 'insist' on closing Green, despite 2days of weakening in price near highs of 1,770-80....It's a lagging indicator, yeah, so, I'm fine with waiting 1day more for it to catch up with price action.

Also, I forgot totally bout projecting the Inverted H&S breakout to gauge the potential upside target for the current rally from 1,653...
I plot it out on the chart below, & what it did is, it correctly identifies +/- 1,780 as the target for Inverted H&S neckline breakout, which took place on Monday (Sept09)...

Again, sometimes, the simpler the TA is, the better/more accurate the results you get!!
Which is why I always like to, or recommend my readers to -- 
Keep it Simple..&..Keep to the Basics!!

FKLI - Inverted H&S Breakout Projection shows 1,780 as potential top... (Sept13, 2013)

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On FCPO

Just did up a post on Sept12 (Thursday), as price hit my downside target of 2,323 & my shorts are covered.

Friday saw a quick test on 2,305 support region in late trading, & a furious rejection & short-covering activities brought price back up shooting to 2,349 high to close the week.
Bullish divergence signal is all over the place, ripe for a Right-Shoulder formation on CPO Daily...
Right, another Inverted H&S, on CPO this time...

I'm expecting price to bounce further up, resistance overhead plotted on chart -- 2,365-2,385 | 2,400-2,420.
Of course, to complete the Right Shoulder, price has to break above 2,420 strong resistance to match previous major pivot highs of 2,485-2,491.

Sad news is, on a longer term view, our CPO is still stuck in its 2,200-2,600 range....It has been travelling to-&-fro between the two levels since February2012, nearly 2years now...
sad.sad.sad stories been told between these two lines......huhu!! :((

Potential tapering talk in the coming week's FOMC Meeting might send USD higher again, thus help support CPO priced in weaker Ringgit...
Pretty much match what the chart is telling us thus far... :D

My earlier post on FB Page when 2,323 target is reached:-
FCPO - Target reached at 2,323...Covered Shorts & Expect Rebound Soon (Midday@Sept12, 2013)
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For the week: -
FCPO - Right Shoulder forming...?? (Sept 13, 2013)

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On GOLD

Part & parcel of a Trader's life, is to deal with the constant challenge of seeing market going against you, while the chart still shows you one of your favorite setups!

That's what happen to me on Thursday night (Sept12), as the jobless claim came out miraculously lower than 300k mark.
My GOLD chart is shouting Buy!Buy!Buy!, price was testing 1,330 level, while I expect the Inverted H&S neckline around 1,310-1,320 region.

So, I took the trade, to Long as my setup present itself in the market...Long @ 1,330 level.

On Friday, price started the day falling further & further towards 1,300 psychological mark.
In the afternoon, I 'fixed' my long position by making it a spread, added a Short@1,319 level.
That technically fixed my paper losses at 10pts, no matter where the market moves to thereafter.
And then, I put a buy limit at 1,321 -- i.e. >> Shall market finally decides to bounce back from its super-oversold condition, my Short will be covered @1,321, leaving me with my initial Long position @1,330 to continue to run....
** Hope this clear the air for those who are interested to know how I 'fixed' my Gold position...Not exactly a 'good' thing to do for a position-on-hand...but, define 'good things' in trading? Mitigating risk & be profitable is still the top priorities!! lolx!

I posted on my FB Page, saying that this is a perfect example of News vs. Price, and that how Price will become the eventual winner, coz to me, or any Technical Traders by practice, Price is King!!

Well oh well, my setups really did not disappoint me!... :D
I came back from my movie to see GOLD nearing its week's close on Sept14 (Saturday) early morning (GOLD trading day close at 4am, to be exact, Msia time), & price has already breached through the 1,320 level!
It later spiked a little more to close the day on a magnificent looking long-tail Dragonfly Doji, closing at 1,326 level!

YesssSSS!!!!!!!!!! \(^o^)/
Again, price discounts all info, proven!!
*Info here being Syria war tak jadi...FOMC potential tapering, jobless claim exceptionally good....etc >> All are GOLD Bearish news/data....

GOLD, also on an Inverted H&S, potentially forming the Right Shoulder too following its late Friday bounce...
I'll take this Long off-the-board before Mr Ben's press conference, on Sept18@1430hr US Eastern time. Don't mess with Tapering..the Big Deal!...lolx! :D

News/potential news aside, I'm actually expecting GOLD price to roar higher, past its previous pivot high of 1,433.50, towards 1,475-1,500 resistance band overhead...which also coincides with the inverted H&S breakout projection target. :)
Hmmm...that seems impossible if the tapering does came on Sept18 Bernanke's FOMC Statement We'll see then...!

GOLD - Forming right shoulder, also?? (Sept 13, 2013)

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Okay!!
That's all for the long weekend!
Enjoy!! & Safe traveling if you'll be on the road back from hometown! :)

P/S >>
Those who are interested to know more about a typical 'working' day for traders, do check out this video series "Millionaire Trader" on Youtube...

A bunch of average UK peeps, aspired to be city traders (that's how they name the traders in London city..hmm..), got some intensive-intensive training & hopped on to the trading bandwagon, under a sponsor of a millionaire hedge fund manager.

Notice though, they operate from a Hedge Fund management perspective...A little different from average retail trader like myself...Hedge funds, as their name would suggest, hedge all their positions on-hand to mitigate the risk of having market going against them, which makes Hedge Funds the most popular, high-returns investment portal among the Western countries... 


Have fun!! :) :)



Saturday, September 7, 2013

September 02-06 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week1)

Hi All.

One thing nice about having a FB Page is definitely the ability to post real quick updates, right on-the-go, from my iPhone.

On Sept05 (Thursday), spotted a potential Long setup on FKLI, while I was waiting for my number to be called at a local bank branch which have probably the slowest-moving staff on earth...huhu...*_*.....
Using the pens I borrowed from receptionist, & ruler of course, here's what I sketched down on a piece of waster paper. I even manage to post it on my Page before it's my turn at the tellers. WooHoo!!! ......Me being fast & savvy, or they're just too slow??? Haha! ...@_@''...

Here's my proud Sept05 FKLI sketch ---

And then on Sept06 (Friday), also outside running some errands, CPO finally gave some indication of where it really plan to go, in the late evening trading.
Another simple yet informative post on CPO, though the mobile app (provided by NextView) doesn't have an option for adding in Oscillators.
The bearish divergence signal was later verified, after I reached my destination & run through the full chart on my laptop.

Here's the Sept06 FCPO post via mobile upload ---

Alright! Enough of the fun of trading/analysis on-the-go....Back to usual weekend comments on my fav trio....

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On  FKLI

The Long setup did realized the day after I posted my sketch.
It's looking more & more likely for an Inverted Head & Shoulder neckline breakout on FKLI !

That's equivalent to saying that the Aug22 gap at 1,725.5-1,735.5 is about to be filled, shall the neckline breakout does occur in coming week trading.

FKLI (Hourly) - Inverted H&S neckline breakout is imminent (Sept02-06, 2013)
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Now, here's like putting $$$$ into your pocket!!!!!
I've did up another chart on the ways I'd use to identify the top for the current rebound from 1,653 major pivot low, which technically can be called a Counter-Rally/Bear Rally, or more commonly dubbed the Dead Cat Bounce...

These methods/signals are custom made based on historical pattern of FKLI....
Do spend me a nice meal or a CoffeeBean if you do make it on the coming fall-of-the-cliff dive on FKLI... :D

FKLI (Daily) - How would I Identify a Potential Top for this Counter-Rally?? (Sept 06, 2013)

That's lots of $$$ I'm putting into ur pockets man! Check if your pocket has a hole ya... :p

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On FCPO

We might be nearing an end to the fantastic 300pt August rally...As noted in the mobile post above.

Do note though, that the MPOB August industry data is due on Sept10, while the export estimates by ITS & SGS seems to point to a more robust export demand throughout August month.
That's the potential risk to my short.

Here's the full chart analysis >>>

FCPO - Potential End to 300pt August Rally (Sept 02-06, 2013)

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On GOLD

Well, GOLD was on a very nice ABC pullback from $1,433.50/ounce high made on August28.
At least until the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data came out on Friday (Sept06) night...

The NFP out was less bullish than expected, but overall still show a rise mom.
Unemployment Rate (UR) ticked down 1basis point to 7.3%, market-bullish.
Dow swing from losses to gains, & finally settled flat with a small loss by Friday's close.

Market seems pretty divided on whether a less-than-bullish NFP is actually 'good' or 'bad' for market?
This may delayed the seemingly imminent QE Tapering, as Fed ponder on the less rosy picture painted by the August NFP numbers.
Nevertheless, the UR, which is the one indicator Fed has tied to its monetary policy decisions, gives a better picture, with slow but steady decrease over the past few months.

So, what now??? @_@''.....

GOLD spiked up after the data, suggesting that traders are more inclined to believe that the data might delay Fed's tapering. Or so we think...??

Anyway, the ABC pullback I mentioned is still intact, based on the charts.
So, I'm keeping to my pullback target of 1,340-60 in the mean time, as I expect the price to correct back to the 2-month old uptrend line holding the rally from 1,180 major pivot low.

We'll see to that, then! :)

GOLD - Keeping to my pullback-to-trendline target of 1,340-1,360 (Sept 02-06, 2013)
 
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Okay!!
That's about all for the week's happenings & my predictions for the week's to come, on The favorite Trio...

Happy Weekend!!
Happy Hunting for September -- It's so volatile! We should stay cautious & just Aim for the Big Money $$ !!

:) :) :)



Tuesday, September 3, 2013

September 03 - After-Market-Close FKLI, FCPO & GOLD

Hi All.

A quick note after I came back from US Labor Day holiday on Monday!! :p

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Im expecting some slow trading sentiment these few days, as US came back from the long weekend. While on the local front, nobody really knows what to do after the superb V-Shape rebound on FKLI last week. Hence, the narrow range trading seen these 2days.
CPO, the final piece of August export figure didn't seems to be able to extend the August rally to latest high of 2,485. That is expected coz I believed it's mostly priced-in to the >300pts rally from 2,137 pivot low, also riding on the weak Ringgit at the same time.

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Alright! Happy hunting!! :) :)



Monday, September 2, 2013

August 26-30 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week5)

Hi All.

Embedded is my latest post on FB Pag, to close August as Week5 trading draws to an end.
All comments are detailed in the individual photo descriptions.

Check them out!
Happy Hunting for September -- the Most Bearish month of the year!! 
p/s: Bearish = Wonderful Short entries with nice & fast profit!! Hehe.... ;-)


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