Saturday, August 24, 2013

August 23 - What's with the Foreign Fund Outflow?

Hi All. post for the week of August 19-24, 2013.
Anyone can teach me how to post multiple photos in a post on FB Page??.....Feeling kinda low-tech! @_@''

Anyway, here's the link to the photo album for August 2013 posts on the page.

I did a special feature on the recent foreign fund outflow topic rife on street...
Remember we discussed the potential bottoming out of USDMYR & MGS 10Yr-yield, all the way back when we close 1H 2013?

The simplest thing to do to assess how bad this 'FF outflow' thingy is affecting Malaysia markets, that includes all three equities, bond, & currency market, is to put a side-by-side comparison of the 3charts, June28 vs. Current.
A quick sneak peek here....Also, its available on the FB Page, of course.

Malaysia equity-bond-currency market, June28 vs. August23, to assess Foreign Fund Outflow effect

And then, I have the usual Favorite Trio analysis for FKLI, FCPO, & Gold, as of end of August 23, 2013.

FKLI, hammered by foreign fund outflow, is definitely setting s bearish tone.

CPO, on the other hand, buoyed by weak MYR, has been rising >100pts over the past 2 weeks, & still running strong as of Friday, August 23 close. Might see slight pullback/stall, before it continues its run towards the inverted H&S target of 2,400-2,420.

GOLD, on a double bottom breakout run-up, has been lifted further to end the week at high of 1,397.40, right below 1,400 mark, after a huge rise in jobless claim (due Thursday, Aug 22) + surprise 13% plunge of new home sales (due Friday, Aug 23).
Also, not forget to thanks the weakening USD (yes, Dollar is weakening, despite we in Malaysia seeing a furious depreciation of our Ringgit....sigh~~, depreciating against a weakening Dollar, imagine the seriousness....)

That's a quick sum up of the trio's, & on FF outflow...


Happy Weekend!!
Catch up on faster updates with me on My.Trading.Space FB Page... :)

Thursday, August 22, 2013

August 22 - A quick note on FKLI

Hey guys.
A quick note on FKLI, kindly refer my post on the FB page.

Saturday, August 17, 2013

August 16 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week2)

Hi All.

Woah!....It's been quite a while since I last actively update on my favorite trio FKLI, FCPO & GOLD.
Newton was darn right, always keep the momentum going & things shall just roll its way along with little effort. Once stopped, by distraction, or laziness :p, the inertia factor will come in & make you feel comfy to stay stagnant.
Luckily, I manage to squeeze out a force strong than the inertia, to push myself out of the comfy zone, & start posting again! with as I try my best to recollect on these forces/vectors blabla since Uni time...
Actually, I had been focusing on my Internet Marketing business recently, working hard to keep up with the ever-changing WWW-dimension. Internet marketing, as kaleidoscopic as the trading world; slowing down? you can kiss your business buh-bye!!

Many things has happened over the past few weeks, when I wasn't posting. But, more important things are coming next week, heads up on:
*Aug21 (Wed) - FOMC July31 meeting minute is due for release
May see further details on potential Sept QE tapering by the Fed, or may just be a repetition of what we've heard during the FOMC statement immediately following the July31 meeting
*Aug23-weekend - Fed Annual Retreat at Jackson Hole
Bernanke, & a number of other key members will not be attending, though. Expect limited impact compared to the usual attention given to this event.

On the local front,

The lingering danger of a run away govt bond yield spike has been played down my our government key officials. The rise in bond yield, coupled with rapid weakening of the MYR, especially to the USD, spells a clear signal of a fast bail-out of foreign funds, mostly on arbitraging play or with carry trades purpose, from the local financial/real-estate scene.
Nevermind all the down-playing, or denial, from our beloved government, the charts tells the inarguable truth.
Check out what the chart is telling us, long before the Ftich downgrade came, my post to close the 1st Half of 2013, dated June28, had highlighted the bottom-out of bond yield, depreciation of MYR, as the theme for 2H2013 FKLI future outlook.
*Read my June28,2013 post here*

With the tapering (or expectation of a tapering), which has been tipped to happen around Sept'13, has spooked global funds movements, typically out of emerging markets, back into developed economies, or in particular, the US, due to anticipation of a rate hike & thus, appreciation of USD to take place soon.

This will inevitably put the bubble-ish emerging markets, most of which benefited from ultra-low rates in EU & US, in tremendous pressure, as foreign fund outflows continue to happen on a rapid pace.
Malaysia, who recorded a huge slump in nation-wide exports a few months back, now face more challenges seeing liquidity out-rush from the local business scene.

Plantations, though suffer from tepid export demand, still comes out a winner due to weak MYR, still holding well.
Constructions may still be supported by the MRT mega-project.
Financials, the frontier industry to wither the foreign fund outflow storm.
Real Estates/Property, kiss them byebye before you got your hand burnt.
O&G, with crude oil's seasonally bullish period drawing to its end, may not see its recent super-strength continues, especially so when the USD continues to appreciate. That said, selected companies may still benefit from weakening MYR, though.

With most of the major sectors composing the local benchmark KLCI/FKLI barely sees their sunny days ahead, we are definitely in for a rough time for 2H2013.
However, its undeniable that KLCi/FKLI is still on a technical long-term uptrend, as of now, despite the slight weakness shown this week.

I previously discussed a possible setup using Fibonacci Fan on the FKLI. It did turned out quite well, making slight profit as of Aug16 closing of 1,789.
*Longer-term Trade setup with Fib Fan & W%R* (Posted on July 31)

FKLI rebounded sharply from the 1,760 low on Aug1, closing back above the 61.8% fib fan line, bravo! :)
It then struggled a little before breaking above the 1,783-84 minor resistance to complete a break above the downtrend line surpressing price since the fall from 1,814 in late July.
The week saw FKLI hit a high of 1,806, currently pullback to retest previous congestion area top around 1,783-84. Shall it hold, we will see a retest of 1,814 high & possibly the 1,824 July-high.

Nevertheless, momentum is clinging to a slightly weak tone throughout the week, as it fails to swing high into the 0-20% sell zone & stay above it. Instead, it made a fail swing & is threatening to reverse into bearish mode as of Aug16 close.
A successful retest & strong bounce from the 1,783-84 minor support, shall however, reverse the sentiment. A higher close above the immediate 1,806 resistance, in the mean time, shall sent momentum to its high, showing strength of the bulls.

We shall see how it turns out next week.

FKLI - Weak uptrend momentum (August 16, 2013)

On CPO, the delayed MPOB data for July'13, due to the Raya holidays, was out with an expected build on stock level, as local consumption ease back to usual levels post- Ramadhan/Raya spike in demand.

Latest export estimates out for Aug 1-15 showed an 18% mom rise in demand, compared to same period in July. This is encouraging for CPO prices, which has recently emerged from its recent beaten-down mode, reverse & reclaimed 2,300/tonne price level, with a lift from weakening MYR too, of course.

From the charts, future price rise looks very promising, as the bulls managed to push price above the inverted H&S neckline at 2,280 level. Price rally all the way to previous strong resistance of 2,335 level, & saw a late-week decline to close slightly above 2,300 level for the week.
I'm expecting a quick retest of the neckline level of 2,280, before bouncing off into another strong upwave, which shall overcome the 2,335-45 strong resistance band, to complete the Inverted H&S pattern at around 2,400-2,420 region.

FCPO - Inverted H&S Neckline breakout. Bullish towards 2,400-2,420 (August 16, 2013)


On GOLD, I've been updating on MyTradingSpace FB Page.
Attached the charts here for August 12, 15 & 16, respectively.

GOLD - W-bottom neckline breakout. 2nd retest & hold. Bullish! (August 12)

GOLD - Bounce from neckline but meet resistance at 1,335-45 band. (August 15)
GOLD - Bullish Momentum further affirmed by breaking above 1,335-45 Resistance band. (August 16)

Seems like GOLD is on a serious reversal too! :)
I'm waiting for it to reclaim the $1,400/ounce mark.
Let's see! :D

That's all for a great weekend read....haha...:p
Cheers! Keep Hunting Keep profiting!! $$$

*p/s*: If u haven't done so, please LIKE my new FB Page at the FB LIKE BOX BELOW. That will be the new home for MyTradingSpace !! Thanks!! :)

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