September 02-06 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week1)

Hi All.

One thing nice about having a FB Page is definitely the ability to post real quick updates, right on-the-go, from my iPhone.

On Sept05 (Thursday), spotted a potential Long setup on FKLI, while I was waiting for my number to be called at a local bank branch which have probably the slowest-moving staff on earth...huhu...*_*.....

Using the pens I borrowed from receptionist, & ruler of course, here's what I sketched down on a piece of waster paper. I even manage to post it on my Page before it's my turn at the tellers. WooHoo!!! ......Me being fast & savvy, or they're just too slow??? Haha! ...@_@''...

Here's my proud Sept05 FKLI sketch ---

>>>  Sept 05 - FKLI quick sketch on potential Long setup

And then on Sept06 (Friday), also outside running some errands, CPO finally gave some indication of where it really plan to go, in the late evening trading.

Another simple yet informative post on CPO, though the mobile app (provided by NextView) doesn't have an option for adding in Oscillators.

The bearish divergence signal was later verified, after I reached my destination & run through the full chart on my laptop.

Here's the Sept06 FCPO post via mobile upload ---

>>> Sept 06 - FCPO showing potential reversal signal

Alright! Enough of the fun of trading/analysis on-the-go....Back to usual weekend comments on my fav trio....

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On  FKLI

The Long setup did realized the day after I posted my sketch.

It's looking more & more likely for an Inverted Head & Shoulder neckline breakout on FKLI !

That's equivalent to saying that the Aug22 gap at 1,725.5-1,735.5 is about to be filled, shall the neckline breakout does occur in coming week trading.

FKLI (Hourly) - Inverted H&S neckline breakout is imminent (Sept02-06, 2013)

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Now, here's like putting $$$$ into your pocket!!!!!

I've did up another chart on the ways I'd use to identify the top for the current rebound from 1,653 major pivot low, which technically can be called a Counter-Rally/Bear Rally, or more commonly dubbed the Dead Cat Bounce...

These methods/signals are custom made based on historical pattern of FKLI....

Do spend me a nice meal or a CoffeeBean if you do make it on the coming fall-of-the-cliff dive on FKLI... :D

FKLI (Daily) - How would I Identify a Potential Top for this Counter-Rally?? (Sept 06, 2013)

That's lots of $$$ I'm putting into ur pockets man! Check if your pocket has a hole ya... :p

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On FCPO

We might be nearing an end to the fantastic 300pt August rally...As noted in the mobile post above.

Do note though, that the MPOB August industry data is due on Sept10, while the export estimates by ITS & SGS seems to point to a more robust export demand throughout August month.

That's the potential risk to my short.

Here's the full chart analysis >>>

FCPO - Potential End to 300pt August Rally (Sept 02-06, 2013)

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On GOLD

Well, GOLD was on a very nice ABC pullback from $1,433.50/ounce high made on August28.

At least until the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data came out on Friday (Sept06) night...

The NFP out was less bullish than expected, but overall still show a rise mom.

Unemployment Rate (UR) ticked down 1basis point to 7.3%, market-bullish.

Dow swing from losses to gains, & finally settled flat with a small loss by Friday's close.

Market seems pretty divided on whether a less-than-bullish NFP is actually 'good' or 'bad' for market?

This may delayed the seemingly imminent QE Tapering, as Fed ponder on the less rosy picture painted by the August NFP numbers.

Nevertheless, the UR, which is the one indicator Fed has tied to its monetary policy decisions, gives a better picture, with slow but steady decrease over the past few months.

So, what now??? @_@''.....

GOLD spiked up after the data, suggesting that traders are more inclined to believe that the data might delay Fed's tapering. Or so we think...??

Anyway, the ABC pullback I mentioned is still intact, based on the charts.

So, I'm keeping to my pullback target of 1,340-60 in the mean time, as I expect the price to correct back to the 2-month old uptrend line holding the rally from 1,180 major pivot low.

We'll see to that, then! :)

GOLD - Keeping to my pullback-to-trendline target of 1,340-1,360 (Sept 02-06, 2013)

 

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Okay!!

That's about all for the week's happenings & my predictions for the week's to come, on The favorite Trio...

Happy Weekend!!

Happy Hunting for September -- It's so volatile! We should stay cautious & just Aim for the Big Money $$ !!

:) :) :)

August 16 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week2)

Hi All.

Woah!....It's been quite a while since I last actively update on my favorite trio FKLI, FCPO & GOLD.

Newton was darn right, always keep the momentum going & things shall just roll its way along with little effort. Once stopped, by distraction, or laziness :p, the inertia factor will come in & make you feel comfy to stay stagnant.

Luckily, I manage to squeeze out a force strong than the inertia, to push myself out of the comfy zone, & start posting again!....lol...bear with as I try my best to recollect on these forces/vectors blabla since Uni time...

Actually, I had been focusing on my Internet Marketing business recently, working hard to keep up with the ever-changing WWW-dimension. Internet marketing, as kaleidoscopic as the trading world; slowing down? you can kiss your business buh-bye!!

Many things has happened over the past few weeks, when I wasn't posting. But, more important things are coming next week, heads up on:

*Aug21 (Wed) - FOMC July31 meeting minute is due for release
May see further details on potential Sept QE tapering by the Fed, or may just be a repetition of what we've heard during the FOMC statement immediately following the July31 meeting
*Aug23-weekend - Fed Annual Retreat at Jackson Hole
Bernanke, & a number of other key members will not be attending, though. Expect limited impact compared to the usual attention given to this event.

On the local front,

The lingering danger of a run away govt bond yield spike has been played down my our government key officials. The rise in bond yield, coupled with rapid weakening of the MYR, especially to the USD, spells a clear signal of a fast bail-out of foreign funds, mostly on arbitraging play or with carry trades purpose, from the local financial/real-estate scene.
Nevermind all the down-playing, or denial, from our beloved government, the charts tells the inarguable truth.
Check out what the chart is telling us, long before the Ftich downgrade came, my post to close the 1st Half of 2013, dated June28, had highlighted the bottom-out of bond yield, depreciation of MYR, as the theme for 2H2013 FKLI future outlook.
*Read my June28,2013 post here*

With the tapering (or expectation of a tapering), which has been tipped to happen around Sept'13, has spooked global funds movements, typically out of emerging markets, back into developed economies, or in particular, the US, due to anticipation of a rate hike & thus, appreciation of USD to take place soon.

This will inevitably put the bubble-ish emerging markets, most of which benefited from ultra-low rates in EU & US, in tremendous pressure, as foreign fund outflows continue to happen on a rapid pace.
Malaysia, who recorded a huge slump in nation-wide exports a few months back, now face more challenges seeing liquidity out-rush from the local business scene.

Plantations, though suffer from tepid export demand, still comes out a winner due to weak MYR, still holding well.
Constructions may still be supported by the MRT mega-project.
Financials, the frontier industry to wither the foreign fund outflow storm.
Real Estates/Property, kiss them byebye before you got your hand burnt.
O&G, with crude oil's seasonally bullish period drawing to its end, may not see its recent super-strength continues, especially so when the USD continues to appreciate. That said, selected companies may still benefit from weakening MYR, though.

With most of the major sectors composing the local benchmark KLCI/FKLI barely sees their sunny days ahead, we are definitely in for a rough time for 2H2013.
However, its undeniable that KLCi/FKLI is still on a technical long-term uptrend, as of now, despite the slight weakness shown this week.

I previously discussed a possible setup using Fibonacci Fan on the FKLI. It did turned out quite well, making slight profit as of Aug16 closing of 1,789.
*Longer-term Trade setup with Fib Fan & W%R* (Posted on July 31)

FKLI rebounded sharply from the 1,760 low on Aug1, closing back above the 61.8% fib fan line, bravo! :)
It then struggled a little before breaking above the 1,783-84 minor resistance to complete a break above the downtrend line surpressing price since the fall from 1,814 in late July.
The week saw FKLI hit a high of 1,806, currently pullback to retest previous congestion area top around 1,783-84. Shall it hold, we will see a retest of 1,814 high & possibly the 1,824 July-high.

Nevertheless, momentum is clinging to a slightly weak tone throughout the week, as it fails to swing high into the 0-20% sell zone & stay above it. Instead, it made a fail swing & is threatening to reverse into bearish mode as of Aug16 close.
A successful retest & strong bounce from the 1,783-84 minor support, shall however, reverse the sentiment. A higher close above the immediate 1,806 resistance, in the mean time, shall sent momentum to its high, showing strength of the bulls.

We shall see how it turns out next week.

FKLI - Weak uptrend momentum (August 16, 2013)

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On CPO, the delayed MPOB data for July'13, due to the Raya holidays, was out with an expected build on stock level, as local consumption ease back to usual levels post- Ramadhan/Raya spike in demand.


Latest export estimates out for Aug 1-15 showed an 18% mom rise in demand, compared to same period in July. This is encouraging for CPO prices, which has recently emerged from its recent beaten-down mode, reverse & reclaimed 2,300/tonne price level, with a lift from weakening MYR too, of course.

From the charts, future price rise looks very promising, as the bulls managed to push price above the inverted H&S neckline at 2,280 level. Price rally all the way to previous strong resistance of 2,335 level, & saw a late-week decline to close slightly above 2,300 level for the week.
I'm expecting a quick retest of the neckline level of 2,280, before bouncing off into another strong upwave, which shall overcome the 2,335-45 strong resistance band, to complete the Inverted H&S pattern at around 2,400-2,420 region.

FCPO - Inverted H&S Neckline breakout. Bullish towards 2,400-2,420 (August 16, 2013)

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On GOLD, I've been updating on MyTradingSpace FB Page.
Attached the charts here for August 12, 15 & 16, respectively.

GOLD - W-bottom neckline breakout. 2nd retest & hold. Bullish! (August 12)

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GOLD - Bounce from neckline but meet resistance at 1,335-45 band. (August 15)

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GOLD - Bullish Momentum further affirmed by breaking above 1,335-45 Resistance band. (August 16)

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Seems like GOLD is on a serious reversal too! :)

I'm waiting for it to reclaim the $1,400/ounce mark.

Let's see! :D

Alrighty!

That's all for a great weekend read....haha...:p

Cheers! Keep Hunting Keep profiting!! $$$

*p/s*: If u haven't done so, please LIKE my new FB Page at the FB LIKE BOX BELOW. That will be the new home for MyTradingSpace !! Thanks!! :)

July 10 - MPOB End-June Inventory & Export Data

*Malaysia’s June Palm Oil Exports 1.41 Mln Tons; Up 0.3% on Month -MPOB

*Malaysia June CPO Output 1.42 Mln Tons; Up 2.3% on Month -MPOB

*Malaysia’s End-June Palm Oil Stocks 1.65 Mln Tons; Down 9.4% on Month -MPOB

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Malaysia’s End-June Palm Oil Stocks 1.65mil tonnes, the lowest reading recorded since Mar'2011.

Despite the lower stock level, the dark cloud over the local palm oil industry still here to stay.

As you read further into the industry report out,

• Higher local consumption is still the only positive factor helping in easing the stock level.
• Output still climbing, albeit in a slower than expected rate during the seasonal high production period through Q2 (April-June).
• Exports demand remain subdue, up only a marginal 0.3% m.o.m.

The heighten local consumption demand is reasonable given that the Muslim Ramadhan Month has just started, with the Raya just a month away.

CPO price may find support in the bullish report released, price shall be buoyed by the Ramadhan & Raya theme, for a little while more.

Let's see if that will be able to send price pass the 2,400-2,420 resistance band now.

>>>

Till then!

Happy Hunting!! :)

June 10 - MPOB End-May Inventory & Export Data

*Malaysia May CPO Output 1.38 Mln Tons; Up 1.3% on Month -MPOB

*Malaysia’s May Palm Oil Exports 1.41 Mln Tons; Down 3% on Month -MPOB

*Malaysia’s End-May Palm Oil Stocks 1.82 Mln Tons; Down 5.1% on Month -MPOB

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End-April stocks was at 1.93mil tonnes.

A bullish crop data indeed, as speculated by market the past week, shown in the steep rally from 2,364 low to 2,470 high over 3 bullish days.

Note that however, most players were betting on a LOWER Output/Production (though we are supposed to be at seasonal high production period), to help ease the stocks level.

However, from the figures breakdown, we should notice that the stocks level decreased due to Domestic Consumption, as both lower exports & higher production wasn't helping to ease inventory.

The argument now is:

How long can the domestic consumption continue to support CPO price? 

There are reports circulating in the market on higher consumption for biodiesel use domestically, to justify the recent trend of increasing domestic usage of CPO.

Nevertheless, we all know that the local consumption only form a tiny portion of our CPO industry output, on an average.

Eventually, we will have to see more export demand to come in to justify the recent rise in CPO price.

To the bright side of things, June 1-10 export estimates by Intertek was encouraging as well:

*Malaysia June 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Up 10% on Month -Intertek

Let's continue to keep an eye on the export demand in June to gauge whether the recent strong rally on CPO price has legs.

May 06-10 - Post-GE13 FKLI, & FCPO

Hi All.

Finally, I'm back!!
My past two weeks had been hectic, travelling here n there, following the ceramahs by PR leaders, attending PACA trainings & later helped training other volunteers, contributed my part as CA for PR camp, & lastly had show my dissatisfaction on the GE13 result by joining the 508 assembly.

 

May05 night must be a heart-breaking one for those who have each contribute their part in hope for a change for our beloved country. It was initially promising when the unofficial results favors PR. However, we all know now how BN has at last turned out to be the winner, leaving conscious people in deep shock & disbelief.

Anyway, let's keep the politic part short as I believe many have been tired after a month of following the UBAH movement & news on the social media.

However, please do exercise caution when browsing through related news on fb, inevitably there will be some bad apples spreading falsified information in hope to attract the wrong kind of attention.

>>>

To the market, its always good news that incumbent party continue to rule, leaving less space for hiccups & uncertainties in financial & corporate activities.

We must be able to detach from the bitter citizen role, keeping a clear mind as an investor/trader to hunt for opportunities, as the market rally to the new-found strength after shrugging off GE uncertainties.

Sidelined investors hoarding cash may start to buy again following the massive post-GE spike on the local KLCI, leaving the index well-above its decade-old resistance, signalling another potential round of medium-to-long term bull market.

Nonetheless, the May06 thrust has to proof solid by holding above the 1,720-40 breakout support level, or at least above the 1,700 psychological level, for the potential of another long-term bull run to realized.

Further comments on-chart.

FKLI - >150pts thrust post-GE13, now above LT resistance. (May 06-10)

A clearer view on the May06 breakout above the decade-long resistance. Not that previous two breakouts from the same resistance line failed & reversed back down to become among the major crashes in FKLI history, the year 2000 internet bubble, followed by the 2008 sub-prime crisis.

Hence, reiterating the significance of 1,700 & 1,720-40 support band for the current breakout to remain valid.

FKLI (weekly) - Breached LT resistance, Sustainability to be confirmed (May 06-10)

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CPO went on the opposite direction the past week, continuing its downtrend to again retest the 2,230 support, for the fourth time in the past seven months.

It then swiftly rebounded from the major support band, which has again proved its strength in supporting price, sent CPO price up to close the week at 2,320, comfortably above the 2,300 mark.

Price may have break above the MT downtrend line, respected by price since the fall started back in Feb from 2,592 high.

However, it has yet to overcome the 2,336 & 2,350-60 resistance levels, which I see as crucial levels which defines whether the current bounce remain a counter-rally in the dominant downtrend, or has it turned into a serious reversal given that the major support has proven solid after several successful tests.

I'm keeping to the counter-rally theory until I'm proven wrong. Still waiting for a lower low than 2,217 (previous significant low recorded on Dec 13) to complete the current downtrend from 2,592 latest peak.

On another note, end-April MPOB data was surprisingly bullish, recording a first end-stock below 2mil tonnes amid rising production & slowing demand (very questionable indeed....@_@'').

Anyway, May1-10 export estimates showing a 17% tumble m-o-m spoiled the party mood a little, as cautious bullish bets were observed where buyers refrained from pushing price up further beyond the 2,336 resistance, despite the very bullish inventory report.

FCPO - 4th Test on 2,230 holds, bounce off into counter-rally/a reversal? (May 06-10)

That's to update the past week's movement on FKLI & FCPO.
Rushing to a Mothers' Day dinner... :)
Wishing all mothers a very warm & touching Mothers' Day celebration!! <3<3

May 10 - MPOB End-April Inventory & Export Data

Malaysia’s April Palm Oil Exports 1.45 Mln Tons, Down 5.6% on Month

Malaysia’s April CPO Output 1.37 Mln Tons, up 3.1% on Month

Malaysia’s End-April Palm Oil Stocks 1.93 Mln Tons, Down 11% on Month

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Malaysia’s End-April Palm Oil Inventories Slip to 10-Month Low -MPOB

End-March stocks was at 2.17mil tonnes.

This is the first time stock level goes below 2mil since early 2012, before the production peak & export drag throughout 2H12.  

Bullish crop data, but I will be skeptical about further price rise, as the May1-10 export estimates out wasn't as rosy as the end-April crop data.

Malaysia May 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Down 17% on Month -Intertek

Malaysia May 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 380,047 Tons -Intertek

  

April 10 - FKLI, FCPO & DJI

Hi All.

A quick one on today's FKLI & FCPO, as both has got some pretty crucial development during today's trading.

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On FKLI

- Pennant breakout to the upside.
- Projection target indicates potential new high for FKLI.
- Resumption of previous rally, sentiment is strongly bullish.
- Watch if the 1,705 peak is gonna hold the bulls for a while.

Resistance @ 1,705 | round numbers/intervals of 10 - 1,710...1,720...etc.
Support @ 1,690-95 | 1,680-85 | 1,675 | 1,665

FKLI - Pennant BO Upside. Very Bullish. Potential New High in the making. (April 10)

I personally cant imagine FKLI at 1,750...lol...

Nonetheless, if the 1,705 peak is to be overtaken, 1,750 will be pretty realistic a target.

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CPO on the other hand, is on the downside today.

Price got a short-lived spike after today's seemingly bullish MPOB March'13 data.

However, price succumbed to furious selling that saw an afternoon drop from 2,416 high all the way back down to close at 2,370 day low.

Price is now convincingly below the ST uptrend line supporting the rebound from 2,335-2,419.

Hence, a confirmation of the end of the rebound at 2,419 high, followed by a resume of the previous downswing from 2,505 high in Wave 3(v).

Support @ 2,325-35 | 2,300 | 2,220-30

Resistance @ 2,390-2,400 | 2,420

FCPO - Price dropped below ST uptrend line. Bearish. Downtrend resumed. (April 10)

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Dow closed at another new high of 14,673. Coming closer to my fibo projection of 15,000-15,100 level. Technical wise, DJI will continue its bullishness, unless we have a surprise from the FOMC Minute tonight, or disappointing earnings from heavy-weight Dow components.

Note: There's a USDA Report coming out tonight at 1200 EST.

          FOMC Minute due at 1400 EST.

Till then.
Happy Hunting!! :)
Prepare to vote @ 050513!!

April 10 - MPOB March'13 Inventory & Export Data

Malaysia March CPO Output 1.33 Mln Tons; Up 2.2% on Month -MPOB

Malaysia’s March Palm Oil Exports 1.54 Mln Tons, Up 10% on Month -MPOB

Malaysia End-March Palm Oil Stocks Fall 11% to 2.17 Mln Tons -MPOB

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Note that production didn't exactly came down in March. 

Increase in export demand seems pretty encouraging though, enough to offset the flattish rather than slowing down output, easing the end-March stockpile by 11%.

Early April (Apr 1-10)export estimates by ITS also show slight pick up in demand to 456,440 ton, up 3.5% mom.
 

Mar 11 - MPOB February Crop & Export Data

MPOB - February 2013

Malaysia’s February Palm Oil Exports 1.40 Mln Tons, Down 14% on Month

Malaysia’s February Palm Oil Output 1.30 Mln Tons; Down 19% on Month

Malaysia’s End-Feb Palm Oil Stocks 2.44 Mln Tons; Down 5.2% on Month