Saturday, June 29, 2013

June 28 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing 1H13)

Hi All.

Internet connection went down for the whole evening....argh....
Way behind schedule for other tasks, so I only managed to analyze FKLI in-detail.
My apologies for the recent lack in postings. :X...oops....looks like I need to restructure my plans n schedule to better manage my time...hoho...:p

On FKLI, some massive window-dressing tool place over the past 3 trading days. So overdone, it exceed my initial estimate of touching a 1,760 high to close 1H13....
LOL...I admit I've underestimated the BIG Boys...Sorry Bosses! :D
Anyhow, I hope my readers have benefited from the rally, when I gave the heads-up on my June26 (Wednesday) 'Quickie on FKLI'.

For the weekend, & also to close the 1st Half of FY2013, I did a thorough research on the fundamental financial status of our market.
I'm not exactly an expert on Macroeconomics, lol, but I do know some relations between stocks, bonds & currencies markets....
Let's see what I get!! :)

FKLI - Closing 1H13 with a look into the Macros: KLCI-10Y MGS-MYR. (June 28, 2013)



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On CPO, the fall accelerated in the past week, confirming a solid breakaway from the previous strong rally sentiment.

Immediate support comes in at 2,335, which has yet to be violated although price closed the week near low around 2,340. Shall the 2,335 support holds, I'll expect a bounce from that level, starting a corrective rally towards 2,350-60 | 2,400-20.

After this bounce end, I believe it will be time to revisit the dreaded 2,230 level, yet again. But this time around, it WILL NOT be a good battlefield for the bulls anymore. Having to fight for the same piece of land for the 5th time in a row, means only one thing, your opponents are growing stronger, while u stalled & get staled....Oopps! :D

>>>

Not too worry though, as I've got a GOLD chart from late Friday (June 28) evening, before it bounced from 1,200 support & closed high at 1,233.75 in a bullish candle.
Hence, overall analysis is firmly intact, as the bounce from 1,200 major support shall starts a correction to the upside, to ease the oversold condition since falling sharply from 1,600 level following a slew of GOLD-bearish news (bullish Non-Farm, bullish Housing data, Fed's confirming QE tapering...)
Talking about Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), the June'13 reading will be out in the coming Friday (July 05). A must-watch for GOLD traders, in fact, price may stall in tight range in anticipation of the data release next week.


GOLD - Nice Bounce from 1,200 Support!! (June 28)
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For your weekend pleasure, I'd like to share a video with you, who is reading this post.
Get a quiet place, play the video, give it a long thought...*no matter which floor you're at...:)

A short 4-minute video (in Cantonese), a small story, but a real BIG inspiration!

I've just recently reached the 27th Floor, but I've probably left my bagpack on the 23rd Floor (when I graduated from uni....:p)
Luckily, I'm still not too far away, and I WILL turned, walk down 4 floors of stairs, & GET MY BAGPACK BACK so that I can travel with it on my way up again !! :)

On another note, I mentioned The Apprentice Asia Ep.5 has the teams trade CFD virtually. 
Still haven't saw any full-episode uploaded on YouTube. Did found this short clip though, if it means anything at all... 
(This Asia version of the Apprentice series really sucks....our Malaysian gal cant even speak English fluently...poof!...#_#)

Still, we...
Enjoy the weekend, free of haze !! 
Plan well & Happy Hunting for 2H13 !! :D


Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Quickie on FKLI (June 26)

Hi All.

Had been waiting for the window-dressing to come...finally it seems to has started today.
Pretty bad drop the past two weeks, hence I expect lots of 'work' to be done to make the '1H report card' looks nicer.

So, expect pretty sky-rocket style climb over the next two days before June'13/1H13 come to an end on Friday (June28).
Technical internals also suggesting temporary strength towards the downtrend line restricting price since mid-May high of 1,796.5.

Just a quick heads-up, especially for shorties...:p

FKLI - Temporary Strength towards 1,750-60 strong resistance (June 24)


Happy Hunting!! :)



Sunday, June 23, 2013

June 17-21 - FKLI, FCPO, GOLD (Closing Week3)

Hi All.

Was absent from the market early in the week, catching back in the middle of the week into drastic movement of FKLI & GOLD, after FOMC.
While CPO caught up with the bearish sentiment across the board, giving in its gains late into the week on June 20-21 (Thu-Fri).

FKLI
FKLI - Rising Wedge breakdown, Downtrend continues but closing still solid (June 17-21)

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FCPO

FCPO - Bearish Sentiment builds; Island formed, pending breakout direction (June 17-21)
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GOLD

GOLD - 1,320 Significant Support Violated, Selling Continues... (June 17-21)
>>>

A friend mentioned on FB that The Apprentice Asia, Ep. 5, tested the candidates on virtual CFD trading.
Failed to find the full episode on YouTube, probably will emerge later...:p 
In the mean time, those who have access may peep into it for fun...
Again, its proven that Trading is not game where ur IQ matters any more than ur passion, persistence, & discipline. :)

Happy Sunday!!
Happy Hunting for the coming week!! :)



Saturday, June 15, 2013

June 10-14 on FKLI, FCPO, SoyOil & GOLD (Closing Week2)

Hi All.

Analyzed all four of my majorly traded futures contracts in this end-week post.
Hope it can made up for the absence of postings throughout the hectic week...hehe...:p...

Meanwhile, gotta travel to JB for a wedding dinner tomorrow night.
Hopefully, FKLI do not give me much trouble on Monday coz I may not be able to monitor it then. Expecting some consolidation ahead, but still 'hopeful' for slightly more upside from Friday's close of 1,759.5.
 
FKLI - Busted Triangle Breakout Followed by a Fiery Reversal (June10-14)

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CPO, on the other hand, made a 2nd breakdown from its uptrend line extending from significant 2,230 low since May.
A second false alarm in a row?....I'll say very unlikely. Technicals currently agrees with me, too.
However, with the Ramadhan month round the corner, & a lower end-May inventory level as expected, the big picture still favors the bulls, at least for the moment.

FCPO - Easing Inventory & Ramadhan month supporting price (June10-14)
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SoyOil was on an entirely different downward route from CPO, which is why I wasn't even posting on its outlook recently.
Oversupply is also a headache for SoyOil price currently, just like many other major soft commodities.
Price is generally downward trending, as long as it stays within the down-channel holding it since late Feb'13.

SoyOil - Down-Channel restricting price since late Feb'13 (June10-14)
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GOLD, tumbled after bullish Non-Farm Payroll report released on June07, hardly able to recoup the losses, stuck below 1,390 significant resistance level.
Unless price regains its footing on 1,390-1,400 levels, near-term outlook remains weak towards 1,375-80 | 1,360-65 support band.


GOLD - Consolidating between 1,375-90 post-NFP tumble (June10-14)

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Enjoy the weekend!
Happy Hunting for the coming week!! :)


Monday, June 10, 2013

June 10 - MPOB End-May Inventory & Export Data



*Malaysia May CPO Output 1.38 Mln Tons; Up 1.3% on Month -MPOB
*Malaysia’s May Palm Oil Exports 1.41 Mln Tons; Down 3% on Month -MPOB
*Malaysia’s End-May Palm Oil Stocks 1.82 Mln Tons; Down 5.1% on Month -MPOB

>>>

End-April stocks was at 1.93mil tonnes.

A bullish crop data indeed, as speculated by market the past week, shown in the steep rally from 2,364 low to 2,470 high over 3 bullish days.

Note that however, most players were betting on a LOWER Output/Production (though we are supposed to be at seasonal high production period), to help ease the stocks level.
However, from the figures breakdown, we should notice that the stocks level decreased due to Domestic Consumption, as both lower exports & higher production wasn't helping to ease inventory.

The argument now is:
How long can the domestic consumption continue to support CPO price? 
There are reports circulating in the market on higher consumption for biodiesel use domestically, to justify the recent trend of increasing domestic usage of CPO.

Nevertheless, we all know that the local consumption only form a tiny portion of our CPO industry output, on an average.
Eventually, we will have to see more export demand to come in to justify the recent rise in CPO price.

To the bright side of things, June 1-10 export estimates by Intertek was encouraging as well:
*Malaysia June 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Up 10% on Month -Intertek

Let's continue to keep an eye on the export demand in June to gauge whether the recent strong rally on CPO price has legs.

Sunday, June 9, 2013

June 07 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week1)

Hi All.

There goes first week of June...

No surprise from FKLI, with its daily range grew narrower by the day as the candles squeezed towards the apex of its triangle consolidation pattern.
Expect a momentous breakout, given the month-long consolidation post-May06 thrust. I've been more inclined to an upside breakout since late last month, a hypothesis further strengthened by the bullish performance on the Dow, up 200pts on Friday night following a better-than-expected May Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report. Unemployment rate was slightly higher than consensus at 7.6%, but it seemed largely disregarded by investors/traders.

I did a measured target for the impending breakout, as did in my May31 post.

FKLI - Impending Breakout...Potentially to the upside (June07)
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CPO made me eat my own words, having bullishly charged back above its 1-month old uptrend line, after a false breakdown at week start.

Confused with the new-found bullishness, which obviously come from traders speculating on a very bullish MPOB May inventory report.
Still do not see why the stocks level should fall so drastically to match such a steep rise in price. Nevertheless, its definitely a buy on strength scenario technically, albeit on a cautious note.

FCPO - New-found bullishness, May Inventory report eyed. (June07)

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GOLD lose ground on Friday night, after consolidating in tight range throughout the week ahead of the May NFP report.
The NFP figure out was better than expected, sending stocks & commodities market high up, while GOLD bugs saw their treasured investments lost some of its glow.

GOLD - Breakdown from triangle consolidation pattern (June07)

That's it for Week1 of June'13.

Those who can understand mandarin, here's an inspiring video on a cheerful Chinese girl, whose physical handicap had not stopped her from marching towards her very own dream...

Reminding us of our complete & wonderful life, of which most of us have taken granted for...
Let's be more grateful & live our wonderful life to the fullest!!

Enjoy ur Sunday...
Happy Hunting for the week ahead!! :)



Tuesday, June 4, 2013

June 04 - TRADING is all about PSYCHOLOGY...

Hi All.

After seeing FKLI closed at 1,777.5 high today in a Long White bar, suddenly feel the urge to record down the sequence of observations & decisions I've made since Monday (June03) opening gap down to below 1,770 mark.

I try my best to describe everything alongside the charts, hopefully its not too messy to read :)

FKLI - It's all about Trading Psychology (June 04)


Well, the conclusion is, no matter how godlike is your technical skills, its always the psychology that will eventually determine your trading success.
"Plan your trade, Trade your plan."
Yes, trade your plan, is the only way to get rid of that little voice within ourselves, that's constantly interfering our judgement & actions. 
We all know that, but most of the time we don't do what we know we should be doing....
Anyway, that's just a lame excuse.....:p

Following my recent research in the field of trading psychology , I've learned to truly believe in my trading setups, which I know has a slight edge over the random market outcomes.
Nonetheless, today's event has tested & proven that I have yet to give my setups that much needed UNCONDITIONAL trust & belief.
Hmm....still have room to improve there....:)

Also, from a positive & empowering point of view, I manage to identify a potential trend/sentiment change, execute my 1st trade (though turned out a losing one) according to plan.
Furthermore, I've already lay out a plan to maximize the opportunities tomorrow may offer.
This time it WILL go according to my almost perfect plan...hehe...:p

>>>

Back to the technical part,

As discussed in my previous post, I'm expecting an upside breakout from the triangle consolidation after May06 massive thrust.

Today's strong rebound after several tests on the 1,764 low over the past two days, signalling commitment from the Bulls, has brought price one step closer to a potential upside breakout.

Tomorrow, we'll most likely see the climb continues, will be watching:
R @ 1,781.5 | 1,785-88 | >1,790
S @ 1,776.5 | 1,771.5 | 1,765.5

>>>

On FCPO

Price finally gave in & fall below its 1mth-old uptrend line from 2,230 low.
However, selling is subtle & support is seen near 2,370 region. Probably, sellers refrained from going all out ahead of the May MPOB report on June10.

Technical wise, expect further weakness ahead.

S @ 2,350-60 | 2,335 | 2,295-2,305
R @ 2,380-88 | 2,396 | 2,405-2,420

FCPO - Gap below Uptrend line Extending from 2,230 low (June 04)
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A quick one on NIKKEI, as it hits my first downside target, as discussed in my May24 post, following the flash crash that has started on May23 from near 16,000 peak.

NIKKEI - Bump & Run target hit (June 04)
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Alrighty!
Happy Hunting for tomorrow!! :)



Sunday, June 2, 2013

May 31 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing May'13)

>>>

...Dedicate this post to my Grandpa, may he R.I.P. in God's hands...

>>>

Hi All.

There goes another month of trading, May'13, when I grew 1year older, my trading improves a lot after I implement some well-tested strategies to compliment my current setups, & also, my Grandpa's passing away near end of month. He had lived a long life of 102years, so, it was a blissful funeral, more like a gathering for the huge family he had, span over 4 generations.

I do a brief closing for the month of May'13, for FKLI, FCPO & GOLD, respectively.

Trading was muted since I last posted on the local futures, probably due to the school holiday season, plus a public holiday on Sat (June 1).
Both futures hit high mid-week & reversed to close lower for the week.

FKLI - Imminent Symmetrical Triangle breakout... (May 31)

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FCPO - Failed 2,420 resistance test, weakness signals pullback ahead (May 31)

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GOLD, however, saw big movements the past week.
First, breaking above the 1,400 mark, hit high of 1,420 & reversed sharply (especially on Friday), to again closed back below the 1,400 mark by end-of-week.
Currently, it looks like the ascending triangle breakout sending price above 1,400 is BUSTED....as price closed below the breakout level of 1,440 & closed 1,387 for the week.
More confirmation needed however, to confirmed the failed breakout of 1,400 level. A sustained stay below the level will be enough to show that bulls aren't that enthusiastic/confident as they seemed to be earlier in the week.
We'll see to that....


GOLD - Fall Back Below 1,400 Level (May31)

That put an end to May'13 trading journey....
We'll start over a new chapter tomorrow as we enter into June'13, nearing the halfway mark of Year 2013....
Hmmm...time doesn't fly....it hyper-jumps..... LOL...:p


Here's a test to check on your financial literacy....to know whether u have been utilizing ur weekends wisely all this while...haha...
http://on.mktw.net/12OAQ7


Enjoy your Sunday!! :)



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