Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Jan 25 - FKLI & FCPO (Closing Week 4)

Hi all.
Hope you had a relaxing & enjoyable long weekend.

To wind up Week 4, Jan'13 trading, I did a medium term analysis on FKLI & US Soybean Oil.

On FKLI

The past week started with a shocking 58pts plunge on FKLI (Jan 21), from 1,682-1,624.5 within one trading day. 
The next day (Jan 22), see another furious fall to test 1,601.5 low, before finally saw the index got some support & managed to close the day higher at 1,620.
On Jan23 & Jan 25, technical rebound & probably some short-covering activities helped to bring price back up to around 1,630-35 region, recovered 38.2% of the overall 88pts plunge.

On the longer period, from Sept'11 till now, the overall upward price movement is seen supported by a 110pt up-channels.
The channels had been able to support the rally from Sept'11 low of 1,295 till current. Major corrections over the past 16months has reversed either at the mid-channel line, or the channel bottom.

For the Jan21 plunge, price plunge through the channel bottom upon Jan22 close, but quickly recover & stayed above the channel bottom line over the next two days, Jan 23 & 25.

Also on Jan23, price closed in a bullish engulfing candle, which was further confirmed by a higher close on Jan25. 
This may signal a temporary rebound from low of 1,601.5, although it may not constitute a reversal to the previous plunge just yet.

Price may rebound from here, but a close back above 1,678 will only fully nullify the bearish bias of the long red on Jan21.
Overhead resistance is the 1,634 level which price still unable to overcome after 3 consecutive tries. Next resistance shall come in at 1,645 & 1655-60 levels.

FKLI - Sept'11 to current. Price supported by up-channels (Jan 25)

On FCPO

On Friday(Jan 25), saw CPO open gapped down on weak SoyOil performance overnight. Price then continued down to close the day down to 2,445.
Profit-taking & squaring off positions before the 3-day weekend may have also contribute to the drop.

Despite the drop, the uptrend from 2,217 low (mid Dec'12), & higher low of 2,330 (11 Jan'13), still holds.
From 2,445, support may come in at 2,440 | 2,420 | 2,400, respectively.

FCPO - Slight pullback, overall uptrend still intact (Jan 25)

Overall bullish bias on US SoyOil price outlook shall support CPO price outlook for the short- to medium-term. Although the local record stockpile is still a pain in the xxx.
SoyOil price is fighting the resisitance at 52-52.50cents/lb, successful upside breakout shall see strong price rally, after almost 2years of channel consolidation, since price peaked at $60.41cents in Apr'11.
As of writing, SoyOil still is resisted by the 52cents level, we will have to see if it can overcome the strong resistance in the near term.

US SoyOil - Long term consolidation, 52-52.5 strong resistance to overcome (weekly, 2010-current)

Till then!
Happy Hunting!! :)



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