Wednesday, July 17, 2013

July 17 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Mid-Week3)

Hi All.

Mid-week review on the futures trio.... :)

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On FKLI
hmm....apa mau tulis? 
We are experiencing that damn-boring-post-massive-thrust-consolidation mood on FKLI, again...
Basically, seriously nothing much to comment about...

Just reiterating my view from previous end-week2 post, we need a decisive break above/below the current pathetic consolidation range of largely 1,785-95 (highlighted on chart), before we can see the comeback of wider range trading days.

There's one thing to note, after all...hehe...
Seems like that Fibo Fan does work on FKLI, over a slightly longer period.

Since we climbed all the way from 1,585 major pivot low early Feb'13, the 61.8% Fibo Fan line seems to be holding those subsequent higher lows on the daily quite well, in fact...
Each bounce off from the line produce pretty good upside over 1-2months time. Notice that the latest bounce from it was the earlier pivot low of 1,721.5.

Judging from the observation above, we might well see price move further up from here, after the latest pivot low of 1,721.5. Hence, there's a higher chance of a upside breakout from current consolidation range, to retest the resistance of 1,800 & 1,825-35.
That said, the weakening bullish momentum remains 'The Line' to keep an eye on....Any attempt to fall below its own mid-level of 50-60% line will tell of a weakening uptrend, also hinting that the 1,834.5 high may not be overcame anytime soon....

All in all, eyes on consolidation range breakout, or the continual weakening of bullish momentum, whichever comes first, to give us a signal to near-term market direction.....

FKLI - Still, need to breakaway from 1,785-95 Range (July 17, 2013)

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On FCPO
Fantastic breakaway from the Bear Flag mentioned in my last post....
Price hit flag breakout target within days of the breakdown, temporarily bottomed at 2,222 level.

A cute little green (closed 1tick higher, or should have qualified as a bullish harami) formed today at close of 2,254, hitting high of 2,274 though failed to hold. A little respite from the bulls camp today, or probably just the bears cashing in some of their profits on-hand.

Expect a temporary bounce from the still-rock-solid-support band of 2,220-30, with the daily mid-band as a dynamic major resistance overhead.
Minor resistance shall be the gap around 2,285-2,300, & previous fail-support region of 2,325-35.

Bearish momentum still intact as long as the 50-60% level remains a hurdle.
FCPO - Bear Flag target hit, expect temrary bounce towards 2,325-35 Region (July 17, 2013)

**
Ahhh...I forgot to mention, I don't think the 2,220-2,230 support will continue to hold, this time around...:p
After the current corrective rally, I'll be looking at immediate round number minor support 2,200 below, followed by 2,000 level, my target for a breakdown of this stubborn support base....

On another note,
July1-15 export estimates gave a lousy figure, showing slump of 23-24%mom, according to cargo surveyors ITS & SGS.
Export sucks, stocks level need to combat seasonally high production period, while the local consumption demand eases after Ramadhan/Raya....where do we see any upside catalyst??...hehe...

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On GOLD
Price still remain within the consolidation range of about 1,285-95, now looking more like an ending-diagonal on the 5H chart.
Ending-diagonals usually follows a 2fast2furious preceding wave (usually Wave3,of any degree). Which fits just well into the recent rapid spike from 1,245 low to 1,295-97 high following a slight dovish-sounding Bernanke, during his after-US-market-hour press conference on July10.
I'm maintaining my bearish bias towards short-term gold price outlook, with a confirmation of a temporary pullback shall price fall decisively below the immediate support of 1,280 level.
Support levels come in at 1,260 (61.8%) | 1,240 (50%) | 1,220, bracketed are the fibo retracement levels for the rally ranging from 1,180-1,297.

As of writing, Bernanke is testifying in front of a US Congressional panel on Fed's latest policies.
Tomorrow, he will be testifying to the US Senate.
I dunno how it will affect the market, as the stuff he is saying/will be saying tomorrow, will be the same old story we have recently heard over & over again, during pre-FOMC & post-FOMC media headlines/news cast/press conferences....

Hopefully, gold will start moving again after all these speaking engagements of Mr. Ben....:p...

GOLD - Potential Ending Diagonal, may lead to pullback from 1,297 High (July 17, 2013)

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Thanks for dropping by....
Good night, let's dream about our Happy Hunting tomorrow!! :)



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