Sunday, July 14, 2013

July 12 - FKLI, FCPO & GOLD (Closing Week2)

Hi All.

Had problem logging into my Blogger account over the past week. Now seems to be okay dy...

This was what I posted on Google+, after-market comments for July11 (Thu).
July 11 (After Market)

Yesterday's lower close after MPOB industry report left the daily uptrend line a little challenged. 
We got a confirmation of a temporary pullback today, as price closed lower at 2,371, hitting an intraday lower low of 2,365. 
Expect further weakness towards support band of 2,355-65, 2,335-45.

Another huge thrust today at open, hitting day high of 1,824, retraced all the way back to day low of 1,781.5, & closed 1,788. 

Support level of 1,781.5-84.5 is holding well. Price may retrace the fall from 1,824 high tomorrow, see strength towards resistance level of 1,791.5-96.5 | 1,800 | 1,820-25. 
After such a wide range thrust, as history has it, we shall see weeks of ranging price movement until we get the next 'spike'...Tough environment for traders indeed....

Big news for the past week was the FOMC minute released to media on July10 (Wed) night. 
The minute showed wide range QE tapering discussion among the participants (19 committee members in the FOMC, but only 12members have voting rights).
The trouble came from Fed chairman Bernanke's press conference after the minute was released (July 10, 1600EST).
His dubious answers as to when the QE tapering will begun (despite most FOMC committees leaning towards immediate/gradual QE tapering to take place according to the meeting minute), sent Asian market opening to wild rallies, followed by across-the-board rally on EU & US market later into the global trading day on July11 (Thu.)


In case you weren't aware, that was the reason (or the excuse...?) for our FKLI opening to a wild thrust on July11(Thu), opened at 1,776 but zoomed into a magical thrust to 1,824 high within seconds, before slumping back to earth below 1,790 levels, as the underlying benchmark KLCI opened at 9am gapping up, but did not showed wild swings.

That's the beauty of our FKLI, where magic happens once in a while to test your cardiac muscle strength....Some people happy, most people sad....the norm of The Market....

History has it, we will usually see at least a month-long consolidation following such massive range days, refer Apr03 & May06 candles, & what ensues them... :p
Making the scenario even more complex, the latest July11 thrust was nothing but another longer inside bar, relative to the May06 candle. 
Which means, despite the new-found excitement on FKLI, we still do not have a clear near-term direction....Still stuck in the post-May06 sideway range of roughly 1,735-1,795, sometimes to the extreme low of 1,720-30, or high of 1,800-1,820.

From a longer term view though, we are still technically in a uptrend, as long as the 1,720 strong support level is unchallenged.
Braced for further sideway movement ahead, as the price continue to consolidate the May06 record-breaking thrust.
In the coming week, expect price to retrace its rapid fall from 1,824 high on July11, meaning price may slowly climb back to test the 1,791.5-1,800 | 1,820-25 | 1.834.5 (May06 high) levels. Shall they remained a hurdle not past, price may then reverse back down to the now-familiar support levels of 1,781 | 1,770-75 | 1,760 | 1,750 | 1,735-40.

FKLI - Further Consolidation Ahead...:(... (July 12, 2013)


CPO, meanwhile, fall from heaven after the MPOB data released on July10 (Wed).
The June MPOB data showed further decline on stocks level to more than 12-month low of 1.65mil tonnes. Nonetheless, export demands tilted up a mere 0.3%mom while production picked up 2.3%mom, more than expected.
Worse still, the July 1-10 export estimate figures, out on the same day, showed a slump of 16%mom as reported by cargo surveyors ITS & SGS.
The surge in local consumption over in recent months may be associated to heighten demand ahead/during the Ramadhan month festivities.
As we are now already in the Ramadhan month, its pretty safe to say that local retailers will not see such need to stock up on cooking oil for near term future anymore.
Which means, more nad news for CPO price ahead...

CPO price gapped up a little after the rather bullish MPOB data, but the gains quickly faded into a reversal & eventually a lower close on July10, hinting on a slight dent of the bullish sentiment which had carried price to the 2,400 high from 2,324 low since early-July.

The weakness in the bulls' camp was spotted by the bears & price eventually succumbed to strong selling pressure on July11-12 (Thu-Fri), leaving the week closed low at 2,300/tonne level, in a bearing engulfing weekly candle.
Shall the 2,295-2,305 support band holds for the moment, we may see some slight technical rebound to 2,305-10 | 2,320-25 region.
However, price has now back into downtrend mode, continuing the fall from latest 2,490 high in  mid-June. Adopt the sell-on strength approach as long as price continue to make lower highs & stay below 2,380-2,400 resistance levels.
Shall the 2,295-2,305 support band fails, look for support further down at  2,270-80 | 2,250-60 | & the all-crucial 2,220-30 levels. 

FCPO - Risk of more Downside towards 2,230, or lower (July 12, 2013)


GOLD's week can be summarized as below:
  1. July08-09 (Mon-Tue) continued the strong rebound from latest pivot low of 1,207 recorded last Friday (July05).
  2. July10 (Wed) saw consolidation between 1,240-60 tight range after hitting a high of 1,258 on late Tuesday trading.
  3. July11 (Thu) saw price surged past 1,255-60 resistance band after Bernanke's press conference (July10 1600EST), where he was reluctant to confirm a date for QE4 tapering & repeatedly stressed on the separation between QE Tapering & eventual hike on the benchmark Interest Rate. GOLD price continue to surge during Asian market hours to a high of 1,297, before pulling back into a consolidation range between 1,275-85.
The week saw GOLD closed on a bullish Long White/Green...:p...weekly candle, ranging about 90pts between 1,207-1,297.
Coming week may see GOLD consolidate this week's rally a little, with support lying around 1,260-65 | 1,240-50 & 1,225-30 region.
On the mid-term outlook, I still see that the downswing from 1,800 high may have reach a temporary low at 1,180-1,200 band on June28. I maintain my view on the current rebound from 1,200 major support, that is it has a great chance to go beyond the psychological 1,300 mark, towards 1,330-40 resistance band, or even 1,395-1,415 further resistance overhead.
We are still in a corrective rally mode (i.e. --> major trend=downtrend, but we are currently correcting the price fall of the downtrend, means price will be on a temporary rebound uptrend, untila point where buyers become reluctant to buy further.) 

GOLD - Expect temporary pullback, Corrective rally from 1,180 major low still intact (July 12, 2013)


Alright, that's it for the end-week post.
I'm working on migrating my posts to a FB Page...:)...Well, gotta say its easier & more accessible on FB...Besides, Blogger is having some server technical problems recently which is disrupting my blog posting & readers access...hmm...

I shall update on my coming posts when the FB Page is ready....In the mean time, we just bear with the Blog-era post updates, shall we?....hehe....

Gotta go enjoy my Sunday!! :)
Happy Hunting for the coming week!! 

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