Tuesday, April 23, 2013

April 22 - FKLI, FCPO & Gold

Hi All.

A brief update on the market as April Week4 starts.


Consolidation between 1,696-1,707 still persist, albeit a low close today below the 1,700 mark.
The tepid volume indicates traders staying to the sideline as the GE13 Election Day looms.

Last week's analysis still largely intact. 
A breakout from either the consolidation top of 1,707-1,710 to confirm near-term upside to retest the all-time high of 1,719; or breakdown of the consolidation bottom of 1,690-96 to find further support at 1,680-85 & fibo strong support at 1,660-65.

FKLI - Remain in Consolidation, Traders Sidelined ahead of GE13 (April 22)
~* Note: Typo in the title has been corrected, wrongly stated the resistance band as 1,505-08 instead of 1,705-08. Thanks to Auntie for her kind alert. :) *~
(@ April 23, 1320hr)


Downtrend resumes again today, after price gapped down at open & subsequently close near day low at 2,256, firmly below past week's consolidation bottom of 2,260-70.

Repeating my target of 2,220-30, which has gotten much closer following today's downward movement. 
Since this is just the Wave III counting down from 2,593 latest pivot high, we might well see a breakdown of the major 2,210-20 support, eventually.
Nonetheless, we will have to first see a counter-rally after the current downswing is completed, before a mojor breakdown to below 2,210 mark.

Today saw the release of April 1-20 export estimates by ITS & SGS, compiled below:
Malaysia April 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 864,206 Tons, Down 6.4% - SGS
Malaysia April 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 882,469 Tons, Down 4.9% on Month - Intertek

Exports is down again for the first 20days of April. This is bad news for CPO price as production starts entering a cyclical high period from April to end-June.
Export has to pick up to offset the possible rise in production, so we can see the record stockpile eases further by month-end.
Well, now it seems pretty far-fetch with the slowing export demand as estimated. Let's see how well the export demand can go in the remaining a week or so, before we close Apr'13.

FCPO - Downtrend Resumes again, after past week's flat consolidation (April 22)


On a side note, GOLD has indeed rebounded from 1,320-40 support band & has just hit a high of 1,438.35 in the evening.
A weak open on the Dow sent price down slightly, hovering around 1,420-27 level, as of writing.

As discussed in my previous post, written in the wake of the historic Gold Plunge through Apr12-15, price may rebound from 1,320 low to retrace part of the drop.

Taking the high of 1,440, price has since recovered about 50% of the 250+pts plunge early last week.
Also, 1,440 level is one of the hurdle to be crossed for further rebound, next level to overcome being the 1,480-1,500 psychological mark.
As of writing, price seems to be resisted by the 1,440 level, now pulling back from it. Buyers may come in near support levels of 1,420 | 1,400 | 1,360-80. Healthy pullback for the rebound shall not see price re-visit levels below 1,340-60.

GOLD - Rebound from 1,320-40; Hit Ceiling of 1,440 currently (April 22)

That's all for the day.
Working towards my month-end target!
Happy Hunting to all !! :)

1 comment:

  1. April 23 - After Market Close


    Following my post at Midday Break:

    FKLI did close lower at 1,695.5 today, from yesterday's 1,699.5.
    Hence, a bearish crossover on the daily MACD is confirmed, signalling potential weakness ahead.
    Also, note that momentum has tilted down in a more convincing way, a change from past week's flattish pattern, which saw them stuck below their respective OB zones.

    I'm keeping a bearish bias now for the week, or probably until end of month.
    Still, am waiting for a more decent upward retracement for my short entry.
    If the retracement doesn't materialize, probably a short on breakdown of today's congestion area of 1,693-1,697 is the backup choice, with a less enticing Risk:Reward ratio, as 1,690 itself is also a minor support down there.

    We'll see to that.



    Did a strong rebound at morning open, all the way to 2,288 high before closing for lunch.

    Afternoon open saw a gap down & continue down to day low of 2,259 before a quick rebound for a close near day's mid-range at 2,272.

    Technical internals seems to suggest today's rebound as a counter-rally move against the primary downtrend.

    If, the 2,280-90 resistance is to be overcame tomorrow (covering Monday opening gap), we might see further rebound back to find 2,305-2,315 high.

    Shall the downward movement from Monday decides to continue, we need to see a breakdown of the 2,250-60 support, towards the next floor near 2,220-30.

    As of writing, SoyOil seems rather weak, hovering around day low of 48.40cents.
    Let's see if we will get a bullish/bearish lead from SoyOil tomorrow morning.


    Gold is still hovering around yesterday's day low range of 1,410-20.

    I'm seeing a bearish flag on the hourly, with potential downside target near 1,400 support.

    A break below 1,410 shall also means a breakdown of the short-term uptrend line supporting the climb from 1,360-80 low, which should invite more technical selling.

    Price is now retracing its strong rebound from past week's 1,320-40 low to recent pivot high near 1,440. Strong support shall come in around 1,380-1,400 levels.


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