Monday, March 11, 2013

Mar 11 - FKLI, FCPO & SoyOil

Hi All.

An early post today.
Past few days saw both local futures traded in a subdued & lackluster manner, hence I had little to add by end of the trading week.

A new trading week finally bring some life into the trading field.

>>>

On FKLI 

After slightly over two days (including this morning) of consolidation within a FLAT ranging 1,646-1,655, we finally see a breakout from the range in late trading today, sending the FKLI to close at a high of 1,664.

With the breakout, we are now securely above the daily uptrend line again, after two days of slight bearishness induced by the lower highs formed on the past two daily candles.

So, let's look at the potential upside from here.

Firstly, we took out the 1,657 resistance level, marked by the Jan21 candle open.
After which, we went into consolidation between 1,646-1,655.
Today saw price formed a higher high at 1,664.5. 
Hence, immediate resistance is at 1,665 level, followed by 1,674, that Jan21 tower peak. :p

Some may have noticed that I have been plotting the fibo projection line on my daily chart since the rebound from 1,593 high.
A projection of the early-Feb 1,585.5-1,640 rebound gives a price target exactly at 1,674, further strengthening the resistance level.
Coupled with the ST uptrend line extending from 1,593 pivot low, we have about another 2-3days time to reach the target.

FKLI (Hourly) - Breakout from Flat; Back above uptrend line (inset, Daily) - (Mar 11)

Finally, our local benchmark is moving in-line with the regional market, which were mostly back at pre-crisis high, some even breaking new historical highs.
Nonetheless, downside pressure from the looming election is still there. Do constantly check our backs, just so we are not getting carried away by the new-found bullishness on the index.


Sharing my current ST philosophy on FKLI: 
Just when you think it's gonna plunge on election fear, it bounces;
Just when you think it's gonna retest the peak, it reverses??
LOL....Just sharing! :D
Just trade with the trend, follow your analysis, it shall not fail you.

>>>

On FCPO 

Also saw narrow range trading the past few sessions, with traders anticipating the Feb'13 MPOB data, which was out this afternoon. 

**
MPOB February'13 Industry Data  
MALAYSIA'S FEBRUARY PALM OIL OUTPUT DOWN 19.5 PCT FROM JANUARY
MALAYSIA'S FEBRUARY PALM OIL STOCKS DOWN 5.2 PCT FROM JANUARY MALAYSIA'S FEBRUARY PALM OIL EXPORTS DOWN NEARLY 14 PCT FROM JANUARY
**

Data out was mixed, with declining output largely offset by a similar degree of drop in export demand.
Market reacted with an afternoon gap down, which quickly recovered, then saw price again travel in range of about 2,440-60, forming another small-bodied candle on the daily.

Trading remain slow even after the MPOB data is released, with daily volume recorded just a slight improve.
Technical layout remains the same, the currrent rebound should be a temporary wave4 following the drop from 2,593 recent pivot high.
Overhead resistance remained at 2,470-80 region, followed by the gap around 2,500-2,520 area.
Momentum seems slightly peaking, which means the rebound should progress faster from here, or risk cooling down & reverse back into the primary downtrend. 
Immediate resistance also comes from daily mid-band at around 2,470 level, which needs to be overcome tomorrow.for the rebound to remain intact. 

FCPO - Rebound Wave4 intact but slow progress (Mar 11)

A quick one on SoyOil too. Also stuck in range of 50.10-50.30 last week. Broken out of the range in late Fri-Sat trading last week. Currently retetsing & saw the support at about 50.20-50.30 holding nicely.
SoyOil - Broke above consolidating flat, retest support holds (Mar 11)

Till then !
Have a nice evening all !
Happy Hunting !! :)


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