Thursday, March 29, 2012

JCY - Rebound from bottom

JCY - Mid-term Outlook (March 27)

Had been wanting to post on this counter since few days ago. A friend asked why I didn't went in when it touch the 1.07 bottom on March 20. My reason is that I'm still holding a position on the counter, hence, not wise to add risk to an already risky trade. As shared by Conrad himself at the link below. 
Never add more risk to higher risk
Why my position is a risky one?....Because my entry, 1.19@Feb 20, was meant to profit from the small correction wave-b in an ABC-correction, TP@1.33-1.37 level. But the sellers managed to take over the game, correction touches a high of 1.29 then all the way down to 1.08-1.09 level. 

In that case, at the price of 1.06, the recent low, although the counter was totally oversold, to buy more is not a wise option at all. I believe there are many fans of "averaging down" out there, but at the circumstances where the general trend is still down while we anticipate a reversal, it is best not to get into a trade too early (high risk). Instead, an entry when the price retrace back to 1.14-1.15 level will be a wiser move to minimize risk as the reversal is now confirmed. 

Now back to JCY

The current upwave shall bring price to 1.23-1.26 level, almost without doubt. However, a firm reversal back of the 2-mth old downtrend since the 1.50 peak early Feb'12, shall only be confirmed by the momentum of the price surge by then. If price is able to stay above 1.15 support level after touching 1.26 peak alter, then there will be a higher chance of a change in the general trend. Also, to add to the strength of trend reversal, a stay above the 6-mth old trendline support is also crucial. 

JCY -short-term trading S&R (March 28)

Again, to reiterate, JCY do have a strong result from the passing-on of the Thai flood effect a few months back. Other rating catalyst are all pointing to a positive outcome for the coming 2QFY12 result including higher average selling price (ASP), double orders booked from Seagate, & also an appreciation of USD against MYR.

Since the company fundamentals are also supporting the reversal of the downtrend, with technicals pointing to more upside also, we are now at a "万事俱备,只欠东风" status, where a slight good news or positive announcements from the management shall help booster the price. 

That's all for JCY as of this moment. I've recently been monitoring a few speculative counters which are still at an "on-the-move/hot" status, namely, MTRONIC, SILVER, NICORP, UTOPIA. Almost all of them are in an correction/consolidation phase after their respective most recent spike, find a good entry & we shall ride their Wave 3 up high & PROFIT from the GORENG Co. However, experience with technicals on previous calls taught me that stocks are really SLOWWWW, & can rendered oversold to levels unacceptable by wave counts & fibonacci. Hence, now I'll give a discount of one support/resistance level on my exit & entry points to buffer against the over-over-bought or over-over-sold stances.

Happy Hunting!


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