Mar 18 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi All.

Since I last posted on the Mar12 Dark Cloud Cover closing at 1,653, FKLI has dropped another hefty 36pts to close at 1,617.5 today, Mar18, hitting an intraday low of 1,608 in fact.

So, the Mar12 setup targeting 1,674 high has obviously failed.

The previous rebound from 1,593 low ended at 1,668.5 high, & had subsequently reversed into the current down swing.

When the index readjusted & closed down 13pts on Friday below its mid-band support of about 1,635, FKLI follow suit with a last-15min plunge below its own 1631-34 support, & closed low 1,625.5.

I was doubting the violation of the daily mid-band support, as the news of a change of weightage effective Mar18 on the KLCI components seemed little known.

I wasn't aware of the change myself, until being alerted by my broker following the plunge late Friday.

Well, the doubt on whether the violation of the mid-band was all cleared when we open gapping lower to 1,618.5 this morning on FKLI.

Price then retest 1,620-21.5 level but soon gave up & plunge together with the underlying cash market, hitting a low of 1,608, an hour into trading.

Later saw price rebounded to congest around 1,614-1,619 range before closing at 1,617.5 for the day.

Okay. I must admit recent price movement on the FKLI is confusing me & my analysis, while its eating into my capital with its wild swings up & down. 

Initially, I was seeing it as a consolidating flat within 1,587-1,640 range. 

Then, came the breakout from 1,640 to the upside. ...Wrong!!...

The breakout was follow by another two gap ups, sending price bullishly up along an uptrend line, thought that's a reversal up from previous downtrend. Did a fibo projection & find a target of 1,674. Price hit high at 1,668.5 & reversed down. ... Snap!!... -_- ///

Since price had pullback below daily-mid-band, its a confirmed reversal downward now. ...dizzy....@_@''

Having no luck with trendlines, flag/flat/triangle...etc...

At last, I decided its time to resort to Elliott Wave to tell me what exactly is going on...

By today's close, what we know for sure now is:

(1) Price is in a corrective move throughout the rebound from 1,585.5 low up to recent high of 

      1,668.5. Unfolding in 3-waves patterns, rather than the motive 5-waves movement.

(2) The drop from 1,668.5 recent high has been confirmed to be a reversal, rather than a uptrend 

      pullback, following the violation of daily mid-band support around 1,631-33 on Friday, Mar15.

Counting the drop from pivot high of 1,668.5, it is quite possible that the correctional mode since late Jan might have ended.

To confirm the resume of the previous downtrend from 1,705 peak, we will need to see further drop below today's low of 1,608, giving a 5-wave pattern to the current down swing from 1,668.5 high.

This is the counts I drafted on my trading log after market close.

FKLI - Wave Count Draft I (Mar 18)

After several possible counts, I think this version fits the current movement best, but do take note that this is a really amateur wave counts & might just be erroneous...i.e. follow at your own risk...~_~''

Shall anyone find something funny with the counts, kindly let me know so I can rectify it.

Assuming the counts are right, a fibo projection gives the next drop an end-target of around 1,587. Shall we go there tomorrow, it will spell the resume of the downtrend from FKLI all-time high of 1,705.

Of course, there's another much safer way to trade the market from here.

Assuming we have yet to finish with the drop from all-time high of 1,705, we expect further downward movement.

Hence, we can patiently wait for a convincing break below the LT support of 1,587, then safely enter our trade at the first retracement high.

Another approach will be to stick to the news & make sure you are among the first ones to hear that long-delayed dissolution announcement. Then, take the short on panic selling. ...LOL...

Perhaps this is an omen to the long-awaited parliament dissolution anouncement?...huhu...:p...

Anyway, please, NEVER trade on speculation...

>>>

On FCPO

CPO price failed to continue the bullishness saw on Friday, Mar15.

Price opened slightly lower & gradually retracing Friday's rise in a small 30pts range day, closed 2,383, below previous immediate support of 2,390-2,400.

The level of 2,360-70, proven solid after several test past two weeks, shall not be violated for the Wave4 to continue unfolding to the upside.

Overhead, resistance is still the same at 2,400-20 | 2,450-70.

Wave4 shall not overlap Wave1, hence, mark our ultimate resistance at 2,476, Wave1 low registered on Feb15.

The Mar1-20 export figures due out soon might be the reason behind the quiet range, as traders could be holding back on their positions for the moment.

On another note,

KLK CEO is reported to express concern on Malaysia's expiring GSP status with the EU in Jan'14.

Losing the status may further depressed the already weak export demand for Malaysia CPO, as rival Indonesia lower-taxed exports will appear even more attractive than now.

This may add to the misery of our current high-stockpile, low-demand CPO industry, not to mentioned the suppressed price squeezing tight on the operating margin.

While it's still about three quarters away from the GSP expiry, sooner or later, the issue will come to focus, given that EU's (3rd largest importer) rising demand is one of the few new market segment our local exporters are targeting, amid slowing demand from our biggest importer, China.

Anyway, we'll see if the bulls are ready to move again in this new trading week.

FCPO - Wave4 stalled, Awaiting a long entry. (Mar18)

Okay. That's about all.

Happy Hunting!! :) 

Mar 11 - FKLI, FCPO & SoyOil

Hi All.

An early post today.

Past few days saw both local futures traded in a subdued & lackluster manner, hence I had little to add by end of the trading week.

A new trading week finally bring some life into the trading field.

>>>

On FKLI 

After slightly over two days (including this morning) of consolidation within a FLAT ranging 1,646-1,655, we finally see a breakout from the range in late trading today, sending the FKLI to close at a high of 1,664.

With the breakout, we are now securely above the daily uptrend line again, after two days of slight bearishness induced by the lower highs formed on the past two daily candles.

So, let's look at the potential upside from here.

Firstly, we took out the 1,657 resistance level, marked by the Jan21 candle open.

After which, we went into consolidation between 1,646-1,655.

Today saw price formed a higher high at 1,664.5. 

Hence, immediate resistance is at 1,665 level, followed by 1,674, that Jan21 tower peak. :p

Some may have noticed that I have been plotting the fibo projection line on my daily chart since the rebound from 1,593 high.

A projection of the early-Feb 1,585.5-1,640 rebound gives a price target exactly at 1,674, further strengthening the resistance level.

Coupled with the ST uptrend line extending from 1,593 pivot low, we have about another 2-3days time to reach the target.

FKLI (Hourly) - Breakout from Flat; Back above uptrend line (inset, Daily) - (Mar 11)

Finally, our local benchmark is moving in-line with the regional market, which were mostly back at pre-crisis high, some even breaking new historical highs.

Nonetheless, downside pressure from the looming election is still there. Do constantly check our backs, just so we are not getting carried away by the new-found bullishness on the index.

Sharing my current ST philosophy on FKLI: 

Just when you think it's gonna plunge on election fear, it bounces;
Just when you think it's gonna retest the peak, it reverses??

LOL....Just sharing! :D

Just trade with the trend, follow your analysis, it shall not fail you.

>>>

On FCPO 

Also saw narrow range trading the past few sessions, with traders anticipating the Feb'13 MPOB data, which was out this afternoon. 

**

MPOB February'13 Industry Data  

MALAYSIA'S FEBRUARY PALM OIL OUTPUT DOWN 19.5 PCT FROM JANUARY

MALAYSIA'S FEBRUARY PALM OIL STOCKS DOWN 5.2 PCT FROM JANUARY MALAYSIA'S FEBRUARY PALM OIL EXPORTS DOWN NEARLY 14 PCT FROM JANUARY

**

Data out was mixed, with declining output largely offset by a similar degree of drop in export demand.

Market reacted with an afternoon gap down, which quickly recovered, then saw price again travel in range of about 2,440-60, forming another small-bodied candle on the daily.

Trading remain slow even after the MPOB data is released, with daily volume recorded just a slight improve.

Technical layout remains the same, the currrent rebound should be a temporary wave4 following the drop from 2,593 recent pivot high.

Overhead resistance remained at 2,470-80 region, followed by the gap around 2,500-2,520 area.

Momentum seems slightly peaking, which means the rebound should progress faster from here, or risk cooling down & reverse back into the primary downtrend. 

Immediate resistance also comes from daily mid-band at around 2,470 level, which needs to be overcome tomorrow.for the rebound to remain intact. 

FCPO - Rebound Wave4 intact but slow progress (Mar 11)

A quick one on SoyOil too. Also stuck in range of 50.10-50.30 last week. Broken out of the range in late Fri-Sat trading last week. Currently retetsing & saw the support at about 50.20-50.30 holding nicely.

SoyOil - Broke above consolidating flat, retest support holds (Mar 11)

Till then !
Have a nice evening all !
Happy Hunting !! :)

Mar 07 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi All.

Well, FKLI did a quick U-turn back up after my midday post earlier.

Although the morning gap at 1,655-57 was respected, the closing at 1,655 (yesterday's close) was still a little ambiguously high for a potential wave B of an ABC correction (my initial perception of today's price movement).

Hence, I'll keep that view aside for now, wait for a confirmation tomorrow, as to whether we are done with the retracement at 1,646 today, & looking at challenging the 1,660 resistance overhead.

Or, we may well see a slightly higher open tomorrow, forming a double top, & continue today's half-way-through retracement.

Anyway, closing back at 1,655 formed a hammer-like candle on the daily, which smell a little bullish after hitting a day low of 1,646. A lower than average volume did not give much support, though.

Nevertheless, the close manage to push price securely above the daily uptrend line. 

Mixed signals on daily & hourly....So, we wait for confirmation tomorrow.

I show the hourly chart here, which gives a clearer picture of what happened over the past three days.

 

FKLI - Hourly uptrend line violated, but a high close (Mar 07)

>>>

CPO finally tells us where it wanna go today, breaking out of the descending triangle, emerging above it & zoomed right up to 2,440 resistance level, no looking back.

Well, it still has to come back to retest the support after hitting resistance at 2,440.

Momentum has clearly weaken, minutes before the closing bell, though price is still able to hold within 2,430-40 range & closed at 2,435.

Expect some retracement tomorrow morning, after which may see another attempt to break through the 2,440-50 gap region. 

* Provided we do not gap right over it at tomorrow's open. Remember what happened to the 1,640 resistance level for FKLI?? 

LOL.... :p

 

Today's spike provide a solid follow through to the breakout from the ST downtrend line on Mar04.

Reiterating overhead resistance at 2,440-50 | 2,470-80 | 2,500 levels.

Strong support remain at 2,390-2,400, of which price shall not close back below, if the current rebound is to continue.

However, an Feb'13 crop data & export summary report due on Mar11 (Monday) may cause traders to avoid bringing position over the weekend.

Squaring off of positions may caused some price fluctuation tomorrow.

FCPO - Breakout from descending triangle consolidation (Mar 07)

Till then!
Happy Hunting!! :)

Mar 04 - FKLI & FCPO & SoyOil

Hi All.

Time flies...We have enter the last trading month of 1Q'13.

My 2012 year-end closing post felt like last month, while CNY was like last week.

Well, I guess I can't blame time, maybe it was because FKLI was just about at the same level it was after the end-Jan plunge. 

Trend suggesting an up, while election fear & shorting frenzy keeps u away from holding Long positions....Cautious mode, & darn frustrating too...~_~''

Today, a mid-morning trade error on PetGas, which saw it went to the low of 13+ bucks, dragged down with it the KLCI & FKLI.

My long position went to loss as the stop loss triggered. 

Volume on PetGas wasn't really super-high, meaning that the trade error was covered cheap, much cheaper than the losses it caused on FKLI traders. 

Whether you are on long, or u queued for short below support anticipating a breakdown, you are most likely doomed.

That's a really cheap wash & rinse....expect more of these to come as we get nearer & nearer to GE13.

FKLI showed slight weakness, even if you ignore the trigger down part.

However, with today's price distortion, I'll give it another day to confirm that price has indeed pivoted at 1,640 last Friday (Mar 01).

On the mid-term, the 50pt flat range between 1,590-1,640 still holds the price movement since Jan21 plunge.

Based on the flat & sideway-ish BB, I believe the 1,640 strong resistance is still not ready to be overcome by the bulls. 

In fact, there's no sign of a potential retest of the level in sight, as there was no follow through after a long green breakout day on Feb28, the best chance of challenging the resistance overhead, missed.

Hence, I'm more prone of looking at it as a start of another drop to test on the 1,590-1,600 long-term support, rather than a potential breakout above 1,640 & climbing back above the towering-over Jan21 long red. Also, a bleak outlook on the backdrop of a looming election.

Temporary, the sideway range is defined by the mid-upper daily BB, between 1,620-1,640.

To avoid any 'funky' trade-what-so-ever-error, it is best to either short the extreme high of 1,640, or long the mid-band support of 1,620. 

Of course, a break below 1,620 will see next support comes in at 1,590-1,600.

Momentum weaken slightly on today's drop. RSI just slightly above its mid-level support, while W%R has show a potential break-below of its uptrend line.

Volume also increases on the last two red candles, a warning sign of a potential pivot at 1,640.

FKLI - Still below 1,640, Sideway, Downward bias (Mar 04)

All in all, tomorrow's close shall give a clearer picture on the week's direction.

>>>

CPO had a bullish day today, closing at two-week high of 2,411.

Today's close has confirm a breakout above the ST downtrend line that has been respected throughout the drop of 2,585-2,367.

We may see start of a rebound up-wave from here, which may face some resistance at 2,440 | 2,470-80 | 2,500-20.

Note the downtrend line restricting RSI too, to gauge the potential peak following today's rebound.

Potential price catalyst may come from the speakers' speech from a palm oil conference currently on-going.

On March 11, MPOB will release Feb'13 crop data & export summary.

Barring any notable external noises, we are looking at a ST uptrend for the week.

FCPO - Break above ST downTL (Mar 04)

A look at SoyOil, its more or less in similar motion as CPO. 

Broke below a MT uptrend channel, price drop and unfolded 2or3 waves, currently looking at a temporary rebound after breaking above ST downtrend line.

A short-term uptrend shall define the week's price movement.

SoyOil - Break above ST DownTL, Correction up-wave unfolding (Mar 04)

>>>

The truth is, I'm pretty tired of the crankiness of FKLI as we see the ruling party keep delaying the GE13.

I hope they have the election tomorrow, if possible. Just so we can get back to the usual market sentiment, without an election plunge bias or panic, certainly without any cranky trade errors or 40pt-plunge-a-day day.

In the mean time, I'll shift my focus to CPO, & lighten on FKLI trades.

I'm really getting fearful, as I see too many being greedy right now. :p

All the best!
Happy Hunting!! :)

Feb 21 - FKLI, FCPO & SoyOil

Hi all.

A quick one to add to my comments on the market at midday break today.

FKLI did saw a strong rebound to take out yesterday's high of 1,607.5, before settling at 1,605.5 by close.

I believed many didn't prepare for that strong a rebound, not until it became obvious.

The rebound set a close in a 7th consecutive long-legged candle within the descending flat seen after market return from CNY holiday on Feb13.

This has gone too far to be a flag, I will stay with calling it a Descending flat instead. 

Whatever it is, it has to breakout from the two lines holding the candles, either to the downside or upside, to give a clearer direction for near future.

I'm getting really impatient looking the extending row of long-legged candles squeezed between the two downward-sloping lines.

Irregardless of the impatience, I had been very determined to keep a clear mind amid the shorting frenzy on election rumors. 

And I strongly suggest traders to not get carried away by their bearish bias based on the parliament dissolution which rumors rife that it will be announced tomorrow (Feb 22).

Whether its an event or non-event tomorrow, we just be prepared for either outcome.

FKLI - 7th consecutive long-legged candle in descending flat (Feb 21)

>>>

CPO saw a rather wide gap down to open at 2,516 today. Price quickly recover back above 2,520 & 2,530 support levels though.

Saw the day finished at 2,536 with mainly sideway movement after the morning gap.

Price is sitting right on the daily uptrend channel (lower line) as a result of today's gap.

As of now, I see it as a retest on the previous downtrend line following the descend from latest high fo 2,593 early Feb.

SoyOil is rather weak on the ST after it failed to break above the daily up-channel middle line.

On the longer term view though, it is still bullish as long as the uptrend channels still hold the price.

As of writing, price is pulling back to test the channel lower line at about 51.20cents. 

We will check if that will hold, or not, tomorrow morning.

FCPO - Gap Down, Uptrend Channel still holds (Feb 21)

SoyOil - Price below mid-channel, support at 51.20 (Feb 21)

Prepare for the excitement tomorrow. Whether there will be a much-awaited announcement, or not.

Happy Hunting!! :)

Feb 05 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi All.

On FKLI

 

Today saw a broadly sideway move on FKLI, ranging between the 1,625-35 range.

On the daily, price has consolidated to the upside since Jan 21-21 plunge low of 1,601.5, now seems to be forming an ascending triangle.

Price was unable to break above the resistance yesterday's high of 1,638, which is of a little concern to my bullish bias on the index future.

Given that an inside bar is formed on the daily, signaling a pause to previous strong move up from 1,620-38 the past two days. I'll give it another day for a price breakout from the consolidation phase.

As of writing, DJI saw a surge over 100pts back above 14,000, as U.S. home prices grew 0.4% in December to stretch the year-on-year gain to 8.3%.

That's nearly a 1% higher than the 7.4% growth registered in 2011, while being the strongest gain seen post-crisis.

FKLI - Consolidate in Ascending Triangle. A Breakout is Imminent. (Feb 05)

Encouraging housing data in the US, & that rally on DJI, if sustainable overnight, shall be a strong catalyst to a potential breakout tomorrow on our benchmark KLCI & FKLI.

>>>

On FCPO

Another Inside Bar formed today, trading was tepid within a 20ticks range.

This indicates that traders are not ready to make the move yet, still pondering over their trade decisions.

We will have to see on which side the breakout will occur, trading in its direction shall prove rewarding.

Momentum indicators are on the high side, favoring the bears in this case.

MACDh saw a first red which adds further to the downside pressure.

Adding to the pressure, is the SoyOil price which is struggling to stay above the support levels of 52.70-52.95, after it broke below its double-top neckline at 52.95 earlier on at 2100h.

SoyOil is firmly bearish for the moment, though the rally on Dow has provide the bulls some respite, which is proven short-lived as price is again back below the neckline, as of now (@0032h).

FCPO is pending a breakout, with a downside bias on weak SoyOil & bearish momentum indicators signals.

FCPO - A Double-Inside Bars, Pending a Breakout, Bearish Bias. (Feb 05)

 

SoyOil - Firrnly Bearish, Double-top in Progress, Neckline broken (Feb 05)

Good Night!

Happy Hunting!! :)

Jan 31 - FKLI & FCPO (Week 5 close)

Hi All.

Another 3-day weekend to bring an end to Jan'13 trading.

The coming week is a fresh start to Feb'13, 5-day trading, but I reckon trading volume will diminish as the week progresses, with CNY Day falling on the coming Sunday & next Monday (Feb 10&11).

>>>

On FKLI

The past week, Jan'13 Week 5, saw FKLI stabilized around 1,610-1,625 range.

Sentiment has also calm down following the plunge frenzy two weeks ago.

Daily candles has form several higher lows, which defines an uptrend, though this might be just a temporary retrace from the primary downtrend from 1,705 peak, for the moment.

Momentum indicators had improved to the bullish side over the week. MACDh continue to shorten to the upside, RSI stabilizing at 20-level, W%R tilted up with a higher low & broken above its previous downtrend line.

FKLI - Increasing Bullish sentiment (Jan 31)

On FKLI, Support remains at 1,615-25, while upside targets are at 1,635 & 1,647.

>>>

On DJI

 

On Friday (Feb 01), the US Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at 14,009.79, its first close above 14,000 mark since Oct'07, pre-crisis high.

The recent bull run has continued despite a lower than expected Jan'13 Payroll data at 157,000 & higher unemployment rate reading at 7.9%. Not to mentioned the earlier released dismal 4Q'12 US GDP reading of -0.1%, a first drop since last recession.

However, MSM generally relate the recent rally to an overall improvement in manufacturing, construction/housing data, & the latest rise in consumer sentiment to 73.8.

A long term fibo projection on the DJI gives further upside before hitting resistance around 14,340-500.

DJI - Potential new high at 14,300-500 (Feb 01)

We'll see if the bullishness on the US bourses can spill over to our KLCI & FKLI.

>>>

On FCPO

Price rose furiously on Thursday (Jan 31), started with a opening gap to 2,532, swift rise past each 10pt intervals from 2,550-90.

Price peaked at 2,593 in the afternoon, before succumbing to selling pressure & closed nearer to its open price at 2,555.

A Shooting Star candle was formed on the daily, signalling potential pullback to the beautiful rally from earlier 2,230 & 2,330 lows to the latest high of 2,593.

A little market crowd psychology on the Shooting Star pattern:

The shooting star signals a change in momentum from up to down with the bulls forcing price to a peak but the bears battling back so that price closes near where it opens. 

~ Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts ~

Note though, SoyOil has performed strongly on Friday (Feb 01), which might further support CPO price. 

I'll see an open above Jan31 shooting star close/high as a potential continuation of the rally without a  pullback, violating the candle pattern itself.

We'll see tomorrow.

FCPO - Temporary pullback on Shooting Star (Jan 31)

Alright then!
Happy Hunting!! :)

Flash - Jan 31 - FKLI may be forming another triangle

Hi All.

After got kicked out of trade several times for my FKLI day trades. I went back to reassess the short time frame chart.

On FKLI 5min

The overall setting is an ABC upward correction wave, & we are currently at Wave C.

I observed that price is moving sideway with slight upward bias, since we hit the low of 1,605 yesterday (Jan 30).

The price movement is getting more & more similar to the previous rebound from 1,601.5 low on Jan22 plunge, which eventually developed into Wave A & end at 1,639 high earlier.

A quick plot of S&R trendlines gave the following chart, a little messy...oops :p

FKLI 5min - Wave C unfolding into another a-b-c-d-e triangle? (Jan 31)

Well....this theory will solve the mystery of why I keep getting kick out of the game....-_-///

Happy Hunting!! :)

Jan 30 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi all.

Did saw the drop coming on the FKLI, just not as furious as seen this morning. Missed a post yesterday, so all is just on hindsight.

However, the price development today on FKLI did shed some lights on its whereabouts & its gonna-be in near future.

Previous recovery from the 2-day plunge low of 1,601.5, all the way slowly up to 1,639 high, that formed the first part of a rebound, Wave A.

Pivoting at 1,639, price then consolidate with a slight downward bias, before the eventual drop seen today to low of 1,610, that shall be Wave B.

The subsequent swift recovery, back above & closed at 1,625, will mark the start of Wave C. 

A fibo projection on Wave A-B, gives a Wave C target of at least 1,648, possibly 1,671.

Of course, that's quite a long shot from the close of 1,625 today.

On the way, price might see some obstacle at 1,630-40, previous support area, turned resistance.

Further up, some hindrance will come in at every 10pt intervals, namely, at fibo level of 1,648 | 1,660 | 1,670 levels.

Momentum indicators are still rather weak, hence we may see some pullback tomorrow before any rise. 

Do note that we are in for another 3-day weekend, which may dampen tomorrow's trading activity.

Caution also on the lurking election uncertainties which may well resurface after the bustling-with-noise CNY 2013.

FKLI - Potential ABC correction wave formation (Jan 30)

>>>

FCPO continue to rise steadily along the slope of an uptrend line.

Just past the 2,500 mark today, while manage to close above it at 2,510, near day high.

Momentum indicators are all stable & healthily bullish, volume is slightly below average, though.

The imminent resistance at 2,510-20 area (Dec'12 high) overhead shall requires more participation if it's to be overcame.

However, given that tomorrow may see light trading ahead of Jan'13 export data release, & also the coming 3-day weekend.

Anyway, if 2,510-20 level is pushed through, next resistance shall be at 2,550-60 levels, followed by the psychological level of 2,600 (Oct'12 high).

Support remains on the daily mid-band & the trendline as it extends further up.

FCPO - Continuing the steady rise, past 2,500 mark (Jan 30)

As of writing, SoyOil broke out of its correction channel at 52cents mark, currently trading at 52.3cents.

Breakout target is at 52.50cents, which is also an important & persistent resistance to SoyOil price movement. 

US SoyOil - Upside Channel/Flag breakout, Target 52.50cents (Jan 30)

**On the SoyOil chart commentary, I mentioned unfavorable weather condition in South America, it should be Latin America, instead.**

>>>

Note that at 1415EST (US eastern time), Fed FOMC committee meeting will close with a media announcement by Chairman, Bernanke.

Previous rife on a potential early end to QE3 on improved employment & economic data, may be announced during this media conference.

However, a surprising drop on 4Q12 US GDP to -0.1% from previous quarterly reading of 3.1% may well push the pause button on the winding down of QE3.

Anyway, I'm not going to wait till Bernanke deliver his speech. We will have the conclusion on the headline tomorrow, while overnight performance on DJI shall tell a lot on Wall Street's reaction towards the FOMC decision.

Good night!
Happy Hunting for last trading day of Jan'13 tomorrow!! :)

Jan 15 - FKLI & FCPO

Hi All.

In the US, all eyes are on the US big banks earnings due to be out tonight, both before & after the bell.

A slew of economic data was out, mixed with a surprise climb in Dec retail sales; while Empire State Index, which measures US manufacturing activities continues to contract in Jan, for sixth straight month.

On FCPO

Yesterday night (Jan 14) saw a bullish USDA (US Dept. of Agriculture) report send corn, wheat, & soybean price soaring in overnight action.

That helped lifted SoyOil price, which had been moving in tight range of 49.50-50($US cents) for days, up about 1.20cents to high of 51.70cents in early Tuesday morning.

Which was a huge move, considering the normal day range of SoyOil futures is only about 0.5-0.7cents.

Thus, sent our CPO price gapping up at open today, slipped right out of the downtrend channels I mentioned in previous post.
However, volume wasn't entirely exciting yesterday, hence I will not consider the opening gap a change to the previous bearish sentiment.

true enough, price then move in boring tight range of 2,380-2,400, then closed at 2,397, near its opening price.

Tomorrow might be another tight range day for CPO, barring any gaps at the open.

Whether we will see the previous drop from 2,523 high continues or reverse from here, it will depends on which side the breakout from this tight range consolidation occurs.

I'm keeping my bearish stance, expecting a downside breakout to find 2,230 psychological support, completing the H&S pattern.

In fact, I did a preliminary wave count on CPO (as marked on chart), & expect price to indeed break below 2,230 major support, in a C5 down wave.

However, I have to say my experience with CPO is still shallow, I have no idea whether the price will drop while CPO tends to trend higher from Jan through April/May due to seasonally lower production yield.

Anyway, just to share my opinion here:

FCPO - Price above downtrend line, in tight range (Jan 15)

On FKLI

Price continue to waver between the boring 1,685-95 range.

Notice that price is just a few ticks away from the gradually plateauing BB mid-band. While the outer bands squeezing in further & flattening out too. 

With low participation from traders, consolidation may well continue for a while more.

Continue to monitor the momentum indicators which may signal end of consolidation, by reaching their respective buy levels, while price tries to find support on the mid-band.

Nothing much to add, until we see more solid volume coming in.

FKLI - Sideway Consolidation (Jan 15)

Till then!
Happy Hunting!! :)

FKLI - Tweezer Top, Potential End to Wave C3 ?? (Dec 21)

Hi all.

Apparently, our world is not meant to end on Mayan Apocalypse of 21.12.2012, just yet.

Instead, today might be the end to the hyper-extended Wave C(3) on our FKLI.

This afternoon, news out of Washington that the GOP has shunned the vote on the tax bill, dubbed Plan B, proposed by Rep, Boehner. 

The fact that The House will only adjourned after Christmas sent world indices down sharply, realizing that there's only few days left for a deal to materialize in order to avoid the Cliff-fall.

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On FKLI, price retreats today following regional decline. We closed at 1,665 this week, forming a  Tweezers Top (2-candle formation), signalling resistance at 1,674.5 level. 

Notice that price close in vicinity of the trendline supporting the magnificent run from 1,595 low (Dec 04) to the day's high of 1,674.5.
A decisive break below the trendline shall confirm the end of the current extended Wave C(3).

An important point to note is the sudden spike in volume today, to 3x its 5d-average. Volume spike signals that a trend is near its end, which usually is followed by a trend change.

My FKLI chart for the week's close:

FKLI - Tweezers Top at 1,674.5 (Dec 21)

If Short, I'll suggest shorting the Jan'13 contract, to avoid any funny spike on Dec 31 for a 'nice-looking' year's close on KLCI.

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Here, I'd like to highlight a crucial info on Malaysian government conduct.

Few days ago, there's an article on The Edge Financial Daily, discussing on Malaysia's emergence as world's Top 3 for illicit capital outflow, just behind China & Mexico.

* The Edge - Malaysia in Top 3 for Illicit Capital Outflow

I went on some readings & did a chart on the amount of illicit capital outflow per Malaysia GDP value. The 2011 capital outflow estimated by GFI represents a whopping 1/3 of Malaysia GDP for that year.

Imagine, had our government has implement measures to curb the illegal siphoning of capital out of our country, we might well have put an end to our consecutive 14-years of national budget deficit years ago. 

The loose regulations & deliberate ignorance on the matter's seriousness, coupled with Malaysia's infamous corrupted business environment, is more than enough as a wake-up call for Malaysian citizens.

What I can say is we should vote wisely as informed citizens in the coming GE13.

MALAYSIA - Illicit Capital Outflow vs. GDP (2001-2010)

Enjoy the year-end festive season celebrations !! :)

FKLI - Where Exactly are We at ?? (Dec 18)

Hi all.

Had been away from market the past few days, got tied up with some personal matters.

From the previous peak of 1,657.5, looks like the bears can only take it to 1,645, the nearest support, before the bulls come back roaring today, pushing price up 17.5pts to close the day at the high of 1,664.

I have been mentioning repeatedly that the Wave C3 is becoming super-extended. It is still progressing, indeed.

I figure the wave counts might be a little too complex, for those who are not familiar with it. Not to mentioned I described it in words, & the fact that it keeps on extending into complex sub-waves.

So, I come out with a solution for that. 

As the old saying goes: 'A picture speaks a thousand words'....

I pull out an illustration of a typical 3rd wave extension, & place it side-by-side with my updated FKLI wave counts, for easy reference.

Here's what I got:

FKLI - 3rd Wave Extension of 3rd Wave Extension (Dec 18)

The wave extension illustration (image, LHS), shall represent the whole of rebound Wave C, from Dec 14 low of 1,595.

We have since went through its sub-wave (1) & (2).

Within the current extended sub-wave (3), the smaller 3rd wave is also extended, all the way to 1,657.5.

Due to the complexity of the extended wave (3), wave principle has it that the ensuing wave (5) will be simple & shall not see further extension.

Based on today's close, obvious resistance overhead will be at 1,667 | 1,670 | 1,677 (Nov peak). 

That shall mark potential end of current developing small wave (5), which is also the end of the higher degree sub-wave (3).

After which (refer: wave extension illustration), 

We still have two more waves to unfold, Wave (4) & (5), completing the bigger rebound Wave C.

Which means we might actually get a new peak before the year's close ??

With the typical December window-dressing phenomenon, a new peak is highly possible, with just about 15pts away from the Nov peak of 1,678.

Nonetheless, this year we have potential party-spoiler, the US Fiscal Cliff.

Recent Cliff-sensitive US market fluctuates wildly to headlines coming out of either the GOP-, or the President's camp.

With <10 trading days away from the looming Dec 31 deadline,  I believe market will continue taking cue from the US budget talk progress. 

I'm guessing the two parties might well strike a deal, of small achievement, & employ the main stream media to orchestrate on that to calm the market down, for a Merry X'mas & Happy 2013.

When the X'mas & New Year 2013 fiesta is all over, US citizens will wake up & realize that all was but a lie.

With all the spending cuts in effect by then, automatic layoffs, especially in US military, will hit the employment data hard. Market will adjust to reflect the cruel reality, eventually.

FKLI Midday - Potential End to Extended Wave C(iii) (Dec 12)

Hi all.

Firstly, wish all have a truly memorable day on 12.12.12 !!  ....\(^o^)/....

In the past 3-4 days, FKLI have managed averagely >10pts climb a day, every day, to bring us past 3 significant fibo levels since start of this week. 

Last Friday (Dec 07), FKLI close the week at 1,615. Taking today's early morning spike to 1,657.5, we have climbed a total of 42.5 points over three trading days.

The bullishness is no doubt impressive, but it's way overdone without some decent pullback, the worrisome part of the strong rally.

The current Wave C(iii), extended to 1,630, extended again to 1,644.5, & triple-extended this morning to 1,657.5.

I'd really like to see some pullback from here, since we have a potential reversal pattern for today. 

A nice pullback will be crucial if the current rally is to continue, maybe to retest the previous peak of 1,677, or even, close the year with a new high on the index.

Or, we might be affected by the US market, if the Congress still is not able to come out with a solution soon enough, to avoid falling over the Fiscal Cliff.

So, it's still early to call this the end of the previous corrective donwtrend of 1,677-1,590, while it's also still early to call this a continuation of the long-term rally from 1,310 bottom since Sept'11.

We will have to wait & see, whether the year will close on a bullish or bearish note.

Here's my analysis at midday close.

FKLI - Potential Reversal Pattern to end Extended Wave C (iii) (Dec 12, midday)

Enjoy the once in a lifetime 12.12.12 !!!
Happy Hunting !! :)

FKLI - Wave C3(iii) Completed (Dec 06)

My post-market analysis for today (Dec 06).

Wave 4C(iii) Completed at 1.621.5 (Dec 06, 2012)

Price uptrend resisted by bollinger mid-band & downtrend channel top at 1,621.5.

Price close in Bearish Star candle & tightening bollinger band shows potential pullback & consolidation ahead.

If price pullback, strong support will be seen at 1,602 level, subsequent support as commented on chart screenshot above.

Based on current development, I'll maintain my view on this downtrend retracement. As mentioned in my previous post on Dec 05-07 Outlook.

Expect Wave C to complete at about 1,625. If yes, we are looking at a W-bottom forming with neckline at 1,625. If current retracement Wave 4 is extended (for any reason, like it's the December month?), we will have to see a breakout from the double-bottom neckline.

Anyway, that should be next week's business.

I expect tomorrow will be another consolidation with downward bias, in boring tight range.

Unless you manage to short at 1,620 or above this morning, or else, it will be in the middle of no where now, neither a Short nor a Long.

Coming week shall see some real movement, as Friday night will see the first Non-farm Payroll figure under the re-elected President Obama.

Have a great weekend ahead!

Happy Hunting!! :)

FKLI - Wave 4c(iii) On-track (Midday Review)

A quick review on the market at lunch break.

Wave 4c(iii) in progress (Dec 05, 1300h)

 

 

 

~ HOLD if - we are able to close high today to form a White Marubozu

                   - able to close above 1,611, confirming MACD crossover 

~ Multiple contracts can consider taking partial profit around 1,610-12.

I'm currently more bias to keeping positions overnight as I believe the bullishness will carry over to tomorrow's session.

However, beware of a relatively deep Wave 4c(iv) correction, either by today or tomorrow (Dec 05@06), as the previous c(ii) pullback was rather shallow.

Lunch!! :D

FKLI - Dec05-07 Outlook - Rebound Wave 4(c)

Hi All.

My post-market analysis for today (Dec 04).

Today, FKLI corrected to a low of 1,595, & subsequently rebounded to a high of 1,608.5, completing Wave 4(c)(i)-(ii).
* Ref: my previous post on Dec 03 Outlook.

FKLI - Rebound Wave 4(a)-(b) Completed (Dec 04)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Congratulations to myself & those who managed to LONG @1,597, or lower this morning !! 

:D

Those who took profit around 1,607-08 should have secure a handsome 10pts day profit, to start off their profitable December month.

Those who are still holding LONG can consider TP at end of Wave 4(c)(iii) or (c)(v).

Those who missed the 1,595-97 bottom can still join the party at Wave 4(c)(iv) low.

Experienced traders might wanna TP @ Wave (c)(iii) & enter again at (c)(iv), benefiting from every gyration of the trend.

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As of today's close, we are halfway through Wave 4(c)(iii), which I believe shall end around 1,612-1,616. We might go higher if this minuette wave (iii) is extended.

I'll like to see more volume coming in to support the price, an MACD crossover shall do us enough favor to bring in more buyers. We are at the verge of a crossover, let's see if it will be done by tomorrow (Dec 05).

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Fibo projection from Wave 4(a)-(b) gives an end-target of 1,622.5 for Wave 4(c). Again, this will be subjected to whether the (c)(iii) or (c)(v) wave is extended. 

Fibo retracement on the daily, for the downtrend from 1,677-1590, shows Wave 4 rebound potentially dampened by resistance levels of 1,623.5 (38.2% retracement) | 1,634 (50%) | 1,644.5 (61.8%).

Hence, an extended Wave 4(c) might end at 1,634 or 1,644.5.

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Nevertheless, do exercise caution as we are nearing the end of the current rebound from daily bottom of 1,590, based on my wave count.

Multiple contracts may take half off the table by 1,620-25 to secure profit, while letting the remaining profit runs if price keep climbing.

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I also did an early analysis on potential price movement for Wave 4(c)(iii)-(v), which shall occupy another 2-3 trading days, depending on market enthusiasm. 

I shall update accordingly if anything funny happens along the way.

FKLI - December 05-07 Outlook (2012)

Till then!
Happy Hunting!! :)